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Bioeconomic Modeling of an Imported Disease in California Lettuce

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  • Carroll, Christine
  • Carter, Colin
  • Goodhue, Rachael
  • Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia
  • Subbarao, Krishna

Abstract

We develop a theoretical and empirical model to measure the benets and costs of policy options for controlling a seedborne, imported fungus, Verticillium dahliae, seriously aecting lettuce production in California. In 1995, the disease Verticillium wilt, caused by the fungus V. dahliae, unexpectedly appeared in a lettuce crop in Watsonville, Santa Cruz County. Since then, the disease has spread rapidly through the Parajo Valley, the prime lettuce production region of California. Plant pathologists have determined spinach seeds to be the primary pathway by which the fungus is introduced to the soil (Atallah et al., 2010). Once introduced, the pathogen persists in the soil for many years, aecting subsequent crops. We develop a simulation model to describe growers' prot maximizing decisions regarding which crops to plant, the timing of the plantings, and eorts to control the disease. We also estimate a structural econometric model explaining crop choice decisions made by growers in Monterey County. A simulation model allows for the incorporation of biological parameters estimated from the work of plant pathologists. In addition, we can compare dierent scenarios, in particular those that growers are hesitant to implement in their elds without knowing the impacts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 150495.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150495

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Keywords: bioeconomic modeling; Verticillium wilt; lettuce; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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  1. Alessandro Pinto & Gerald C. Nelson, 2009. "Land Use Change with Spatially Explicit Data: A Dynamic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(2), pages 209-229, June.
  2. Gomez, Miguel I. & Nunez, Hector M. & Onal, Hayri, 2009. "Economic Impacts of Soybean Rust on the US Soybean Sector," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49595, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Johansson, Robert C. & Livingston, Michael J. & Westra, John V. & Guidry, Kurt M., 2006. "Simulating the U.S. Impacts of Alternative Asian Soybean Rust Treatment Regimes," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(1), April.
  4. Gomez, Miguel I. & Nunez, Hector M. & Onal, Hayri, 2009. "Economic Impacts of Soybean Rust on the US Soybean Sector," Working Papers 51177, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  5. Wu, JunJie, 2001. "Optimal weed control under static and dynamic decision rules," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(1), June.
  6. Lubowski, Ruben & Plantinga, Andrew & Stavins, Robert, 2005. "Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function," Working Paper Series rwp05-001, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  7. Alain Carpentier & Elodie Letort, 2009. "Modeling acreage decisions within the multinomial Logit framework," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 09-17, INRA UMR SMART.
  8. Livingston, Michael J. & Roberts, Michael J. & Rust, John, 2008. "Optimal Corn and Soybean Rotations," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6213, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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