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Fertilizer Subsidies and Voting Patterns: Political Economy Dimensions of Input Subsidy Programs

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  • Mason, Nicole M.
  • Jayne, T.S.
  • Walle, Nicolas van de

Abstract

Agricultural input subsidies often have implicit or explicit political economy objectives. Using panel data from Zambia, this article empirically tests whether election outcomes affect targeting of subsidized fertilizer and whether fertilizer subsidies win votes. Results suggest that the Zambian government allocated substantially more subsidized fertilizer to households in constituencies won by the ruling party in the last election, and more so the larger its margin of victory. However, past subsidized fertilizer allocations had no statistically significant effect on the share of votes won by the incumbent president. Rather, voters rewarded the incumbent for reductions in unemployment, poverty, and income inequality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 149580.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:149580

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Keywords: fertilizer subsidies; political economy; voting patterns; election outcomes; fractional response; Zambia; sub-Saharan Africa; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Development; Political Economy; P16; D7; H2; H4; Q18;

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References

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  1. Jacob Ricker-Gilbert & Thomas S. Jayne & Ephraim Chirwa, 2010. "Subsidies and Crowding Out: A Double-Hurdle Model of Fertilizer Demand in Malawi," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 26-42.
  2. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
  3. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
  4. Pan, Lei & Christiaensen, Luc, 2011. "Who is vouching for the input voucher ? decentralized targeting and elite capture in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5651, The World Bank.
  5. Mason, Nicole M. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob, 2012. "Disrupting Demand for Commercial Seed: Input Subsidies in Malawi and Zambia," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 123554, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  6. Mason, Nicole M. & Jayne, Thomas S., 2012. "Fertilizer Subsidies and Smallholder Commercial Fertilizer Purchases: Crowding Out, Leakage, and Policy Implications for Zambia," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 146928, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  7. Benjamin M. Gramig & Christopher A. Wolf, 2007. "Estimating Within-Herd Preventive Spillovers in Livestock Disease Management," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1219-1225.
  8. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
  9. Stein Holden & Rodney Lunduka, 2012. "Do fertilizer subsidies crowd out organic manures? The case of Malawi," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 303-314, 05.
  10. Banful, Afua Branoah, 2011. "Old Problems in the New Solutions? Politically Motivated Allocation of Program Benefits and the "New" Fertilizer Subsidies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1166-1176, July.
  11. Chapoto, Antony, 2012. "The Political Economy of Food Price Policy: The Case of Zambia," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  12. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
  13. Chibwana, Christopher & Fisher, Monica & Shively, Gerald, 2012. "Cropland Allocation Effects of Agricultural Input Subsidies in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 124-133.
  14. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
  15. Lindbeck, Assar & Weibull, Jorgen W., 1993. "A model of political equilibrium in a representative democracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 195-209, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2014. "The political economy of Zambia’s recovery: Structural change without transformation?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1320, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Mason, Nicole M. & Jayne, T.S. & Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda, 2013. "A Review of Zambia’s Agricultural Input Subsidy Programs: Targeting, Impacts, and the Way Forward," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 162438, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.

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