Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on China's Grain Sector and International Trade
AbstractThis study analyzes the potential impact of climate change on China's corn, wheat, and rice, domestic agricultural markets, and the international markets out to the year 2050. The study provides a brief background and reviews research literature of climate change effects on China's crop yields. The paper presents the potential impact of climate change on China's yields and attempts to quantify the domestic and global market impacts. The analysis has four scenarios, which assumes two future levels of greenhouse gas emissions with the effects of CO2 fertilization and no CO2 fertilization. A 27-country commodity partial equilibrium simulation mathematical programming model (PEATSim) is used for this analysis. Results indicate under CO2 fertilization, which increases yields, China's grain imports may decrease leading to a decrease in international prices. Under no CO2 fertilization, yields decrease, China's grain imports may increase leading to increased international prices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with number 103768.
Date of creation: 01 May 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
China; trade; climate change; GHG; CO2 fertilization; rice; wheat; corn; dynamic partial equilibrium simulation mathematical model.; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2011-05-24 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2011-05-24 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2011-05-24 (Environmental Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.