IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea11/103655.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Weather Forecast Based Conditional Pest Management: A Stochastic Optimal Control Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Liang
  • Elbakidze, Levan

Abstract

In this paper, we examine conditional, forecast-based dynamic pest management in agricultural crop production given stochastic pest infestations and stochastic climate dynamics throughout the growing season. Using stochastic optimal control we show that correlation between forecast error for climate prediction and forecast error for pest outbreaks can be used to improve pesticide application efficiency. In the general setting, we apply modified Hamiltonian approach to discuss the steady state equilibrium. Given specific functional forms, a closed form solution can be found for the stochastic optimal control problem. Moreover, we find conditions for model parameters so that the optimal pesticide usage path will be monotonically increasing or decreasing in the correlation coefficient between climate forecast errors and pest growth disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Liang & Elbakidze, Levan, 2011. "Weather Forecast Based Conditional Pest Management: A Stochastic Optimal Control Investigation," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103655, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103655
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.103655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/103655/files/Paper_05-03-2011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.103655?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Wei & Swinton, Scott M., 2009. "Incorporating natural enemies in an economic threshold for dynamically optimal pest management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(9), pages 1315-1324.
    2. Richard M. Adams & Stephen Polasky, 1998. "The Value of El Niño Forecasts in the Management of Salmon: A Stochastic Dynamic Assessment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 765-777.
    3. Zivin, Joshua & Hueth, Brent M. & Zilberman, David, 2000. "Managing a Multiple-Use Resource: The Case of Feral Pig Management in California Rangeland," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 189-204, March.
    4. Glenn Fox & Alfons Weersink, 1995. "Damage Control and Increasing Returns," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(1), pages 33-39.
    5. Atanu Saha & C. Richard Shumway & Arthur Havenner, 1997. "The Economics and Econometrics of Damage Control," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(3), pages 773-785.
    6. David Sunding & Joshua Zivin, 2000. "Insect Population Dynamics, Pesticide Use, and Farmworker Health," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 527-540.
    7. Jean-Daniel M. Saphores, 2000. "The Economic Threshold with a Stochastic Pest Population: A Real Options Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 541-555.
    8. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Shogren, Jason F., 2005. "Managing exotic pests under uncertainty: optimal control actions and bioeconomic investigations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 327-339, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoxue Du & Levan Elbakidze & Liang Lu & R. Garth Taylor, 2022. "Climate Smart Pest Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Lu, Liang & Elbakidze, Levan, 2012. "Application of Comparative Dynamics in Stochastic Invasive Species Management in Agricultural Production," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125226, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Mitchell, Paul D., 2001. "Additive Versus Proportional Pest Damage Functions: Why Ecology Matters," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20775, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Dirksmeyer, W., 2008. "Ist eine Reduzierung des Pflanzenschutzmitteleinsatzes im Freilandgemüsebau möglich? Ergebnisse eines bioökonomischen Simulationsmodells," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 43, March.
    5. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2013. "When is a “wait and see” approach to invasive species justified?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 235-255.
    6. Dirksmeyer, Walter, 2007. "Ist Eine Reduzierung Des Pflanzenschutzmitteleinsatzes Im Freilandgemüsebau Möglich? Ergebnisse Eines Bioökonomischen Simulationsmodells," 47th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 26-28, 2007 7592, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    7. Wechsler, Seth J. & McFadden, Jonathan R. & Smith, David J., 2016. "Into the Weeds: A Structural Model of Herbicide Demand and Glyphosate Resistance on U.S. Corn Farms," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235998, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Konstantinos Chatzimichael & Margarita Genius & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2015. "Health-Damaging Inputs, Workers' Health Status and Productivity Measurement," Working Papers 1505, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    9. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Shogren, Jason F., 2005. "Managing exotic pests under uncertainty: optimal control actions and bioeconomic investigations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 327-339, February.
    10. Konstantinos Chatzimichael & Margarita Genius & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2017. "Health-Damaging Inputs, Workers Health Status and Productivity Measurement," Working Papers 1701, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    11. Elbakidze, Levan & Lu, Liang & Eigenbrode, Sanford, 2011. "Evaluating Vector-Virus-Yield Interactions for Peas and Lentils under Climatic Variability: A Limited Dependent Variable Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-17.
    12. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2012. "The role of spatial scale in the timing of uncertain environmental policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 369-382.
    13. Konstantinos Chatzimichael & Margarita Genius & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2022. "Pesticide use, health impairments and economic losses under rational farmers behavior," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 765-790, March.
    14. Charles Sims & David Finnoff & Jason F. Shogren, 2018. "Taking One for the Team: Is Collective Action More Responsive to Ecological Change?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 589-615, July.
    15. Grogan, Kelly A. & Chakravarty, Shourish, 2017. "The Feasibility of Area-wide Pest Management under Heterogeneity and Uncertainty: The Case of Citrus Health Management Areas," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259188, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Ameden, Holly A. & Just, David R., 2001. "Pests and Agricultural Production under Climate Change," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20722, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Xingliang Ma & Melinda Smale & David J. Spielman & Patricia Zambrano & Hina Nazli & Fatima Zaidi, 2017. "A Question of Integrity: Variants of Bt Cotton, Pesticides and Productivity in Pakistan," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 366-385, June.
    18. Marten, Alex L. & Moore, Christopher C., 2011. "An options based bioeconomic model for biological and chemical control of invasive species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2050-2061, September.
    19. Konstantinos Chatzimichael & Margarita Genius & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2015. "Health-Damaging Inputs, Workers' Health Status and Productivity Measurement," Working Papers 1504, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    20. de Oliveira, A.C.S. & Martins, S.G.F. & Zacarias, M.S., 2013. "An individual-based model for the interaction of the mite Tetranychus urticae (Koch, 1836) with its predator Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor, 1954) (Acari: Tetranychidae, Phytoseiidae)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 255(C), pages 11-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production Economics;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.