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How Much Do Decoupled Payments Affect Production? An Instrumental Variable Approach with Panel Data

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  • Weber, Jeremy G.
  • Key, Nigel D.

Abstract

Agricultural support payments that cause no or minimal production distortions are exempt from World Trade Organization restrictions. If and how much decoupled payments, such as direct payments in the U.S., affect agricultural production remains an open empirical question with implications for policy. We use multiple years of the Census of Agriculture to estimate the aggregate supply response to changes in direct payments. To identify an exogenous source of variation in payments we exploit a provision of the 2002 Farm Act that departed from previous policy by making oilseeds eligible for direct payments, thus increasing payments to areas that historically produced more oilseeds. Using a sample of ZIP codes that accounts for more than eighty percent of the national value of production of program crops, our instrumental variable estimates, in contrast to OLS estimates, suggest that changes in payments over the period 2002 to 2007 had little effect on aggregate production.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with number 103455.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103455

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Related research

Keywords: decoupled payments; supply response; government payments; program crops; trade policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade;

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  1. C. Edwin Young & Paul C. Westcott, 2000. "How Decoupled Is U.S. Agricultural Support for Major Crops?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 762-767.
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Cited by:
  1. Rizov, Marian & Pokrivcak, Jan & Ciaian, Pavel, 2013. "CAP Subsidies and the Productivity of EU Farms," Working Papers 146962, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  2. Conor O'Toole & Thia Hennessy, 2013. "Do decoupled payments affect investment financing constraints? Evidence from Irish agriculture," Trinity Economics Papers tep0113, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  3. Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo, 2013. "The impact of decoupled payments on farm choices: Conceptual and methodological challenges," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-38.
  4. Rizov, Marian & Pokrivcak, Jan & Ciaian, Pavel, 2012. "CAP subsidies and productivity of the EU farms," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 124970, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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