IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea11/103420.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Farm Production and Profitability: Dynamic Simulation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Ruohong
  • Bergstrom, John C.
  • Mullen, Jeffrey D.
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.

Abstract

In this paper, a dynamic optimization model was developed to simulate how farm-level realized price and profitability respond to yield change which was induced by climate change. Producers' acreage response was included in the dynamic model considering crop rotation effect. In the crop rotation model, a modified Bellman equation was used to dynamically optimize the net present value of farm profit for a five-year interval. This simulation process was repeated through the year 2050. Then yield, price, and acreage response were compiled to generate realized profit. Results generally indicated that reduction in crop yields due to climate change results in reduced farm profitability for most of the states studied. Predicted climate change is more likely to pose a problem for agricultural production and profitability in the southern U.S. states as compared to the northern U.S. states. Our results also suggest that acreage response alone is not sufficient to ameliorate the potential negative effects of global climate change on agricultural production and profitability. The results of this research are expected to provide a foundation for future related research to aid producers' crop rotation decisions in an unstable price environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Ruohong & Bergstrom, John C. & Mullen, Jeffrey D. & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2011. "Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Farm Production and Profitability: Dynamic Simulation Approach," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103420, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103420
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.103420
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/103420/files/Ruohong%20Cai_2011%20AAEA%20meetingA.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.103420?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anne E. Peck, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(3), pages 407-423.
    2. Westcott, Paul C. & Price, J. Michael, 2001. "Analysis Of The U.S. Commodity Loan Program With Marketing Loan Provisions," Agricultural Economic Reports 34035, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frederick Murdoch Quaye & Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska, 2017. "Factors Affecting Farm Loan Delinquency in the Southeast," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 75-92, December.
    2. Quaye, Frederick & Hartarska, Valentina & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2015. "Farmer Credit Delinquency in Southeastern US: Factors and Behavior Prediction," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196914, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kushankur Dey & Debasish Maitra, 2012. "Price discovery in Indian commodity futures market: an empirical exercise," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 68-87.
    2. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Gardner, Bruce L., 2002. "North American Agricultural Policies And Effects On Western Hemisphere Markets Since 1995, With A Focus On Grains And Oilseeds," Working Papers 28602, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1991. "Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Bohl, Martin T. & Gross, Christian & Souza, Waldemar, 2019. "The role of emerging economies in the global price formation process of commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. coffee markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 203-215.
    6. Gaurav Gairola & Kushankur Dey, 2023. "Price discovery and risk management in asset class: a bibliometric analysis and research agenda," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(17), pages 2320-2331, October.
    7. Fizaine, Florian, 2015. "Minor metals and organized markets: News highlights about the consequences of establishing a futures market in a thin market with a dual trading price system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 59-70.
    8. Ictsd, 2016. "Evaluating Nairobi: What Does the Outcome Mean for Trade in Food and Farm Goods?," Post-Nairobi WTO Agenda 320180, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    9. Jian Yang & Titus Awokuse, 2003. "Asset storability and hedging effectiveness in commodity futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 487-491.
    10. Ahearn, Mary Clare & Collender, Robert N. & Diao, Xinshen & Harrington, David H. & Hoppe, Robert A. & Korb, Penelope J. & Makki, Shiva S. & Morehart, Mitchell J. & Roberts, Michael J. & Roe, Terry L. , 2004. "Decoupled Payments In A Changing Policy Setting," Agricultural Economic Reports 33981, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.
    12. Martin T. Bohl & Martin Stefan, 2020. "Return dynamics during periods of high speculation in a thinly traded commodity market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 145-159, January.
    13. Gardner, Bruce L., 2008. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in the United States and Canada," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48573, World Bank.
    14. Barry Goodwin & Randy Schnepf & Erik Dohlman, 2005. "Modelling soybean prices in a changing policy environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 253-263.
    15. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi, 1983. "An annual simultaneous equation econometric model of U.S. corn and soybean cash and futures markets," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009935, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Nadolnyak, Denis A. & Fletcher, Stanley M., 2006. "Quality Premiums and the Post-Harvest Spot Market Thinness: The Case of U.S. Peanuts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25274, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. C. W. Morgan & A. J. Rayner & C. Vaillant, 1999. "Agricultural futures markets in LDCs: a policy response to price volatility?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 893-910.
    18. Andrew Schmitz & Troy G. Schmitz & Frederick Rossi, 2006. "Agricultural Subsidies in Developed Countries: Impact on Global Welfare," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 416-425.
    19. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    20. Khondker, Bazlul H. & Raihan, Selim, 2004. "Welfare and Poverty Impacts of Policy Reforms in Bangladesh: A General Equilibrium Approach," Conference papers 331207, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.