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Tarnishing Silver Bullets: Bt Technology Adoption, Bounded Rationality and the Outbreak of Secondary Pest Infestations in China

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Author Info
Just, David R.
Wang, Shenghui
Pinstrup-Andersen, Per

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Abstract

As with other technologies, adoption of Bt seed requires technology specific knowledge. Growing secondary pest populations have slowly eroded the benefits of Bt technology in China. We illustrate the effects of introducing Bt technology among farmers with an imperfect knowledge of secondary pest problems using a simple dynamic model. The stochastic dominance tests based on primary household data from 1999-2001 and 2004 in China provide strong evidence that secondary pests, if unanticipated, could completely erode all benefits from Bt cotton cultivation. Our empirical tests also suggest that planting refuge concurrent with Bt adoption provides for the sustainable development of Bt technology.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21230.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21230

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Keywords: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Simon, Herbert A, 1978. "Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 1-16, May.
  3. Boggess, William G. & Cardelli, Dino J. & Barfield, C.S., 1985. "A Bioeconomic Simulation Approach To Multi-Species Insect Management," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December. [Downloadable!]
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