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Tarnishing Silver Bullets: Bt Technology Adoption, Bounded Rationality and the Outbreak of Secondary Pest Infestations in China

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Author Info

  • Just, David R.
  • Wang, Shenghui
  • Pinstrup-Andersen, Per

Abstract

As with other technologies, adoption of Bt seed requires technology specific knowledge. Growing secondary pest populations have slowly eroded the benefits of Bt technology in China. We illustrate the effects of introducing Bt technology among farmers with an imperfect knowledge of secondary pest problems using a simple dynamic model. The stochastic dominance tests based on primary household data from 1999-2001 and 2004 in China provide strong evidence that secondary pests, if unanticipated, could completely erode all benefits from Bt cotton cultivation. Our empirical tests also suggest that planting refuge concurrent with Bt adoption provides for the sustainable development of Bt technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21230.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21230

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Keywords: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies;

References

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  1. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-46, September.
  2. Feder, G. & Regev, U., 1975. "Biological interactions and environmental effects in the economics of pest control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 75-91, December.
  3. Ragozin, David L. & Brown, Gardner Jr., 1985. "Harvest policies and nonmarket valuation in a predator -- prey system," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 155-168, June.
  4. Boggess, William G. & Cardelli, Dino J. & Barfield, C.S., 1985. "A Bioeconomic Simulation Approach To Multi-Species Insect Management," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December.
  5. Herbert Simon & Lindsay McSweeney, 2010. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," CPI Journal, Competition Policy International, vol. 6.
  6. Simon, Herbert A, 1978. "Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 1-16, May.
  7. Michael J. Livingston & Gerald A. Carlson & Paul L. Fackler, 2004. "Managing Resistance Evolution in Two Pests to Two Toxins with Refugia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 1-13.
  8. Matin Qaim & Alain de Janvry, 2003. "Genetically Modified Crops, Corporate Pricing Strategies, and Farmers' Adoption: The Case of Bt Cotton in Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 814-828.
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Cited by:
  1. Liu, Elaine M. & Huang, JiKun, 2013. "Risk preferences and pesticide use by cotton farmers in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 202-215.
  2. Pemsl, Diemuth E. & Waibel, Hermann & Gutierrez, Andrew P., 2006. "The Economics of Biotechnology under Ecosystem Disruption," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25335, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Pemsl, D. & Waibel, H., 2007. "Assessing the profitability of different crop protection strategies in cotton: Case study results from Shandong Province, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-3), pages 28-36, December.
  4. Soleri, Daniela & Cleveland, David A. & Glasgow, Garrett & Sweeney, Stuart H. & Cuevas, Flavio Aragón & Fuentes, Mario R. & Ríos L., Humberto, 2008. "Testing assumptions underlying economic research on transgenic food crops for Third World farmers: Evidence from Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 667-682, November.

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