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In Search of the "Bank Lending Channel": Causality Analysis for the Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy

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  • Bessler, David A.
  • Leatham, David J.
  • Yang, Juan

Abstract

The bank lending channel states that changes in monetary policy cause changes in bank loans thus causing changes in real income. This implies the Federal Reserve can influence real income by controlling the level of intermediated loans. We apply a new method to test for an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Combining an error correction model with directed acyclic graphs, we explore the existence of a bank lending channel and the effectiveness of U.S. monetary policy since 1960. This paper shows when an operative bank lending channel existed, explains its impact, and evaluates other channels of monetary policy.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19558
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI with number 19558.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19558

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Keywords: Financial Economics;

References

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  1. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2002. "Does Local Financial Development Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8923, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Swanson, N.R. & Granger, C.W.J., 1994. "Impulse Response Functions Based on Causal Approach to Residual Orthogonalization in Vector Autoregressions," Papers 9-94-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  3. Ireland, Peter N, 2000. "Interest Rates, Inflation, and Federal Reserve Policy since 1980," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 417-34, August.
  4. Stephen J. Perez, 1998. "Causal ordering and 'The bank lending channel'," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 613-626.
  5. Hoover, Kevin D., 2005. "Automatic Inference Of The Contemporaneous Causal Order Of A System Of Equations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 69-77, February.
  6. Stacey Tevlin & Karl Whelan, 2000. "Explaining the investment boom of the 1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Carlo A. Favero, . "Macroeconomic stability and the preferences of the Fed. A formal analysis, 1961-98," Working Papers 200, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May.
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Distinguishing theories of the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 83-97.
  10. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
  11. Titus O. Awokuse & David A. Bessler, 2003. "Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 1-24, May.
  12. Hicks, J. R., 1969. "A Theory of Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198811633, October.
  13. David A. Bessler & Seongpyo Lee, 2002. "Money and prices: U.S. Data 1869-1914 (A study with directed graphs)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 427-446.
  14. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2000. "Identifying the macroeconomic effect of loan supply shocks," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  15. Wang, Zijun & Bessler, David A., 2005. "A Monte Carlo Study On The Selection Of Cointegrating Rank Using Information Criteria," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 593-620, June.
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