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Testing for Yield Persistency: Is It Skill or is It Luck?

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  • Urcola, Hernan A.
  • Schnitkey, Gary D.
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Sherrick, Bruce J.

Abstract

This study uses corn yield data from McLean County, Illinois to test whether farmer skill influences yields. This analysis is conducted by performing persistency tests on unadjusted, soil productivity adjusted (PA), and productivity and input intensity adjusted (PIA) yields. Correlation analysis and winner/loser tables indicate that unadjusted, PA, and PIA yields exhibit persistency across time. PIA yields exhibiting persistency is consistent with farmer skill influencing yield. Hence, our results support the hypothesis that farmer skill influences yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Urcola, Hernan A. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2004. "Testing for Yield Persistency: Is It Skill or is It Luck?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19991, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:19991
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19991
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    Cited by:

    1. Keeney, Roman & Hertel, Thomas W., 2008. "Yield Response To Prices: Implications For Policy Modeling," Working papers 45969, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    2. Li, Xin & Paulson, Nicholas, 2014. "Is Farm Management Skill Persistent?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170170, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2008. "U.S. Market Potential For Dried Distillers Grain With Solubles," Working Papers 08-13, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    4. Tamirat, Aderajew AS & Trujillo-Barrera, Andres A. & Pennings, Joost M. E., 2018. "Do Profit Rates Converge? Evidence on the Persistence of Farm Profit in the Long-run," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273791, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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