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The Dynamics Of Land-Cover Change In Western Honduras: Spatial Autocorrelation And Temporal Variation

Author

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  • Munroe, Darla K.
  • Southworth, Jane
  • Tucker, Catherine M.

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric analysis of land-cover change in western Honduras. Ground-truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996, net reforestation occurred in the 1,015.12 km2 study region. While some reforestation can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of reforestation greatly exceeds that of previously clear-cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987-1996. Thus, the observed land-cover changes most likely represent a complex mosaic of changing land-use patterns across time and space. We estimate a random-effects probit model to capture drivers of land-cover change that are spatial, temporal or both. We employ two techniques to correct for spatial error dependence in econometric analysis suitable to qualitative dependent variables. Lastly, we simulate the impact of anticipated changes in transportation costs on land cover. We find that market accessibility, increase in national coffee prices, and agricultural suitability are the most important determinants of recent land-cover change.

Suggested Citation

  • Munroe, Darla K. & Southworth, Jane & Tucker, Catherine M., 2001. "The Dynamics Of Land-Cover Change In Western Honduras: Spatial Autocorrelation And Temporal Variation," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20759, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20759
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20759
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    Cited by:

    1. De Pinto, Alessandro & Nelson, Gerald C., 2002. "Correcting For Spatial Effects In Limited Dependent Variable Regression: Assessing The Value Of "Ad-Hoc" Techniques," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19782, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Peter H Verburg & Jan R Ritsema van Eck & Ton C M de Nijs & Martin J Dijst & Paul Schot, 2004. "Determinants of Land-Use Change Patterns in the Netherlands," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 31(1), pages 125-150, February.
    3. Nicolas Dendoncker & Mark Rounsevell & Patrick Bogaert, 2005. "Empirically Derived Suitability Maps to Downscale Aggregated Land Use Data," ERSA conference papers ersa05p59, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Xiaokun Wang & Kara M. Kockelman, 2009. "Application of the dynamic spatial ordered probit model: Patterns of land development change in Austin, Texas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 345-365, June.
    5. De Pinto, Alessandro & Nelson, Gerald C., 2004. "A Dynamic Model Of Land Use Change With Spatially Explicit Data," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20314, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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