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Exploring The Transmission Of International And Domestic Economic Shocks To U.S. Agriculture

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Author Info
Moledina, Amyaz A.
Roe, Terry L.
Abstract

As growth in world trade outpaces the growth in world Gross Domestic Product (GDP), economies are becoming ever more linked through world markets (Helpman, 1998). It is evident that U.S. agriculture is also becoming increasingly affected by changes or economic shocks in world markets and that this response is conditional on the response of other sectors with which it must compete for economy-wide resources. This paper links the U.S. agricultural sector with its bilateral trading partners by deriving "shock transmission functions". These functions link the direct effects of world economic shocks to the price of four U.S. (export) commodities namely meat, dairy, grains and crops. We derive a price equation that is a function of the product of income between the United States and it's trading partner among other explanatory variables. The coefficient estimates from these equations can be interpreted as price transmission elasticities. These elasticities are used to conduct policy experiments.

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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL with number 21751.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea00:21751

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Keywords: International Relations/Trade;

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  1. Morisset, Jacques, 1998. "Unfair Trade? The Increasing Gap between World and Domestic Prices in Commodity Markets during the Past 25 Years," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 503-26, September.
  2. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gopinath, Munisamy & Roe, Terry L., 1999. "Modeling inter-sectoral growth linkages: An application to U.S. agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 131-144, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry, 2000. " How the Financial Crisis Affected World Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 688-94, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chipman, John S & Tian, Guoqiang, 1992. "A General-Equilibrium Intertemporal Model of an Open Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 215-46, April.
  7. Jiawen Yang, 1992. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 92-28, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  8. Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
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  9. Elhanan Helpman, 1998. "Explaining the structure of foreign trade: Where do we stand?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 573-589, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jakob Madsen, 1998. "Errors-in-variables, supply side effects, and price elasticities in foreign trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 612-637, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
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