IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaae16/246970.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interpreting the Shared Socio-economic Pathways under Climate Change for the ECOWAS region through a stakeholder and multi-model process

Author

Listed:
  • Palazzo, Amanda
  • Vervoort, Joost M.
  • Mason- D'Croz, Daniel
  • Rutting, Lucas
  • Havlik, Petr
  • Islam, Shahnila
  • Bayala, Jules
  • Kadi, Hame Kadi
  • Thornton, Philip
  • Zougmore, Robert

Abstract

The IPCC community’s Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development futures focused on drivers of challenges to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. However, the impacts and drivers of plausible future development at any national or regional level have yet to be examined for consistency within the global narrative. In this paper, we present four globally-consistent regional scenarios on Western Africa’s development that have been used to test and develop a range of national and regional policies. The regional scenarios were outlined independently by regional stakeholders but built around the context of the SSPs. The scenarios were quantified using two agricultural models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with drivers outlined by the SSPs and guided by semi-quantitative information from the stakeholders. Our paper 1) demonstrates how linkages of global SSPs and regional multi-stakeholder scenarios can be achieved through a process of critical comparison, starting from regional priorities, to produce consistent scenarios for future regional development; 2) provides insights for Western Africa on the future of development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts in both qualitative and quantitative scenarios; 3) reports on a set of scalable scenarios for regional decision makers and the scientific community to use to build and test robust agriculture and climate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Palazzo, Amanda & Vervoort, Joost M. & Mason- D'Croz, Daniel & Rutting, Lucas & Havlik, Petr & Islam, Shahnila & Bayala, Jules & Kadi, Hame Kadi & Thornton, Philip & Zougmore, Robert, "undated". "Interpreting the Shared Socio-economic Pathways under Climate Change for the ECOWAS region through a stakeholder and multi-model process," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246970, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae16:246970
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.246970
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/246970/files/306.%20Climate%20change%20in%20ECOWAS.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.246970?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bas Ruijven & Marc Levy & Arun Agrawal & Frank Biermann & Joern Birkmann & Timothy Carter & Kristie Ebi & Matthias Garschagen & Bryan Jones & Roger Jones & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Marcel Kok & Kasper Kok, 2014. "Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 481-494, February.
    2. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    4. Christoph Müller & Richard D. Robertson, 2014. "Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 37-50, January.
    5. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    6. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    8. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    9. Rohrbach, D. D. & Minde, I. J. & Howard, J., 2003. "Looking beyond national boundaries: regional harmonization of seed policies, laws and regulations," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 317-333, August.
    10. Alcott, Blake, 2005. "Jevons' paradox," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 9-21, July.
    11. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    2. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Cenacchi, Nicola & Lim, Youngah & Sulser, Timothy B. & Islam, Shahnila & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Kim, Chang-Gil & Wiebe, Keith D., 2016. "Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050: An integrated assessment," IFPRI discussion papers 1586, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Thomas W. Hertel & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 417-441, October.
    5. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Daigneault, Adam & Johnston, Craig & Korosuo, Anu & Baker, Justin S. & Forsell, Nicklas & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Abt, Robert C., 2019. "Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector," Journal of Forest Economics, now publishers, vol. 34(1-2), pages 7-45, August.
    7. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    8. Phetheet, Jirapat & Hill, Mary C. & Barron, Robert W. & Gray, Benjamin J. & Wu, Hongyu & Amanor-Boadu, Vincent & Heger, Wade & Kisekka, Isaya & Golden, Bill & Rossi, Matthew W., 2021. "Relating agriculture, energy, and water decisions to farm incomes and climate projections using two freeware programs, FEWCalc and DSSAT," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    10. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    11. Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Carlsen, Henrik & Kartha, Sivan, 2019. "Large-scale scenarios as ‘boundary conditions’: A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 55-63.
    12. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    13. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2019. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 383-403.
    14. Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis & Lena Reimann & Gerald Jan Ellen & Gunnel Goransson & Gerben Koers & Lisa Van Well & Bente Vollstedt & Maureen Tsakiris & Amy Oen, 2024. "Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-19, March.
    15. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Jeffrey C. Peters, 2020. "Volume Preserving CES and CET Formulations," GTAP Working Papers 6160, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    16. O'Neill, Brian, 2016. "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their extension and use in impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies," Conference papers 332808, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Gallé, Johannes & Katzenberger, Anja, 2023. "Indian agriculture under climate change: The competing effect of temperature and rainfall anomalies," Ruhr Economic Papers 1002, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," Papers 2312.04428, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    19. Miho Kamei & Alessio Mastrucci & Bas J. van Ruijven, 2021. "A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    20. Absar, Syeda Mariya & McManamay, Ryan A. & Preston, Benjamin L. & Taylor, Adam M., 2021. "Bridging global socioeconomic scenarios with policy adaptations to examine energy-water tradeoffs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaae16:246970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaaeaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.