Forecasting Yield And Profitability Of Maize Cropping System Using Simulation Models In Uasin Gishu, Kenya
AbstractSimulation models have been used successfully to forecast productivity of cropping systems under various weather, management and policy scenarios. These models have helped farmers make efficient resource allocation decisions. However, in Kenya simulation models have not been used extensively and more specifically in modeling maize cropping system. The study aimed at forecasting productivity and profitability of maize cropping system in Uasin Gishu district, Kenya. Both primary and secondary data were used. Both time series and cross-sectional data for variables of interest were collected and complemented by a survey of 20 maize farmers who were systematically selected to verify information obtained from secondary sources. Cropping Systems simulation model and Monte Carlo simulation were used to determine maize output and profits under alternative price scenarios. Even though, simulated yields underestimated actual maize yield both at the district and across the four agro-ecological zones, the deviation from the actual yield was marginal. It is recommended that Cropsyst and Monte Carlo models be included among a bundle of tools for decision making. Further research is also required to test the two models under different locations, soil types, management styles and scales of production.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE) & Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its series 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa with number 97080.
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: c/o FORMAT, 5th Floor, Muthaiga Mini Market, Limuru Road, P.O. Box 79 - 00621 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya
Phone: 254 20 6752866
Web page: http://www.aaae-africa.org
More information through EDIRC
Forecasting; Yields; Profits; Maize cropping system; Simulation models; Crop Production/Industries;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2011-08-15 (Africa)
- NEP-AGR-2011-08-15 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2011-08-15 (Forecasting)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.