The Efficacy of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Malawi
AbstractThe Malawi kwacha was floated in February 1994. Since then, the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) has periodically intervened in the foreign exchange market. This report analyses the effectiveness of foreign exchange market interventions by RBM. We used a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH; 1,1) model to simultaneously estimate the effect of intervention on the mean and volatility of the kwacha. We also ran an equilibrium exchange rate model and use the equilibrium exchange rate criterion to compare results with those from the GARCH model. Using monthly exchange rates and official intervention data from January 1995 to June 2008, results from the GARCH model indicated that net sales of United States dollars by RBM depreciate, rather than appreciate, the kwacha. Empirically, this implies the RBM “leans against the wind”, i.e., the RBM intervenes to reduce, but not reverse, around-trend exchange rate depreciation. However, results from the GARCH model for the post-2003 period indicated that RBM intervention in the market stabilizes the kwacha. In general, results from both the GARCH model and the real equilibrium exchange rate criterion for the entire study period showed that RBM interventions have been associated with increased exchange rate volatility, except during the post-2003 period. The implication of this finding is that intervention can only have a temporary influence on the exchange rate, as it is difficult to find empirical evidence showing that intervention has a longlasting, quantitatively significant effect.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by African Economic Research Consortium in its series Research Papers with number RP_216.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Simwaka, Kisu & Mkandawire, Leslie, 2008. "The efficacy of foreign exchange market intervention in Malawi," MPRA Paper 15946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kisukyabo Simwaka & Leslie Kwacha Mkandawire, 2004. "The Efficacy of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Malawi," Macroeconomics 0407022, EconWPA.
- E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2011-10-09 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2011-10-09 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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