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The integration of Nigeria's rural and urban foodstuffs markets

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Author Info
Rosemary N. Okoh
P.C. Egbon
Abstract

The study intended to determine the presence and level of integration of the rural and urban foodstuffs markets of Nigeria. A central prediction of the law of one price is that prices of all transactions will tend to uniformity, allowing for the transportation cost between different spatial markets. Using the Johansen bivariate test of cointegration, it was established that the rural and urban foodstuffs markets are pair-wise cointegrated. The test for convergence to the law of one price as well as the test for weak exogeneity for urban foodstuffs prices (Y1) could not be rejected at the 1% level of significance. Hence, we conclude that the rural and urban foodstuffs markets are well integrated and are in the same market for arbitrage. The results further suggest that the urban market price drives the rural market price. The size of the adjustment coefficient for the rural foodstuffs price (Y2) shows that the speed of adjustment to disequilibrium is moderate. The persistence profile further shows that it would take about five months for the effects of a shock on the market system to die out. The findings of this research have significant policy implications for Nigeria’s domestic foodstuffs market system as well as its international trade policies.

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Paper provided by African Economic Research Consortium in its series Research Papers with number RP_151.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_151

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  1. Hall, S G, 1989. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegration Vectors: An Example of the Johansen Procedure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 213-18, March.
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. Mastroyiannis, T. & Pippenger, J., 1993. "Testing for Cointegration with Transaction Costs: The Case of the Law of One Price," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 4-93, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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