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Time-to-plan lags for commercial construction projects

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  • Stephen D. Oliner

    (American Enterprise Institute)

  • Jonathan N. Millar
  • Daniel E. Sichel

Abstract

We use a large project-level dataset to estimate the length of the planning period for commercial construction projects in the United States. We find that these time-to-plan lags are long, averaging about 17 months when we aggregate the projects without regard to size and more than 28 months when we weight the projects by their construction cost.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Enterprise Institute in its series Working Papers with number 36393.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:aei:rpaper:36393

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Keywords: AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series;

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  1. Alessandra Del Boca & Marzio Galeotti & Charles P. Himmelberg & Paola Rota, 2008. "Investment and Time to Plan and Build: A Comparison of Structures vs. Equipment in A Panel of Italian Firms," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(4), pages 864-889, 06.
  2. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
  4. Stephen Oliner & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993. "New and old models of business investment: a comparison of forecasting performance," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  6. Burge, Gregory & Ihlanfeldt, Keith, 2006. "Impact fees and single-family home construction," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 284-306, September.
  7. Peeters, Marga, 1998. " Persistence, Asymmetries and Interrelation in Factor Demand," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 747-64, December.
  8. Quigley, John M. & Rosenthal, Larry A., 2005. "The Effects of Land-Use Regulation on the Price of Housing: What Do We Know? What Can We Learn?," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt90m9g90w, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  9. Thomas Mayer, 1959. "Plant and Equiptment Lead Times," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33, pages 127.
  10. Saks, Raven E., 2008. "Job creation and housing construction: Constraints on metropolitan area employment growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 178-195, July.
  11. Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Housing Supply," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 295-318, 05.
  12. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Land use regulation and new construction," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 639-662, December.
  13. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296, August.
  14. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2007. "The effect of land use regulation on housing and land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 420-435, May.
  15. Palm, Franz C & Peeters, H M M & Pfann, G A, 1993. "Adjustment Costs and Time-to-Build in Factor Demand in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 639-71.
  16. Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2010. "Residential Land Use Regulation and the US Housing Price Cycle Between 2000 and 2009," Working Papers 2010-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2010.
  17. Gregory Burge & Keith Ihlanfeldt, 2006. "The Effects Of Impact Fees On Multifamily Housing Construction," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 5-23.
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