IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/adb/adbwps/441.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Adam
  • David Kwimbere
  • Wilfred Mbowe
  • Stephen O’Connell

Abstract

We develop an empirical representation of inflation in Tanzania for the decade from 2001, estimating ‘multiple-determinant’ single-equation models for month-on-month headline inflation and its principal components (food, energy and core inflation). Our results suggest that while supply-side factors, including yield variability and international price arbitrage, play a major role in determining domestic food and fuel inflation (which together account for almost 60 percent of the total CPI basket), demand-side factors amenable to policy intervention by the monetary authorities anchor core inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Adam & David Kwimbere & Wilfred Mbowe & Stephen O’Connell, 2012. "Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania," Working Paper Series 441, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Working_Paper_163_-_Food_Prices_and_Inflation_in_Tanzania.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 1997/145, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cockx, Lara & De Weerdt, Joachim, 2016. "From Corn to Popcorn? Urbanization and food consumption in Sub-Sahara Africa: Evidence from rural-urban migrants in Tanzania," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 249270, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    2. Ayala Wineman & Thomas S Jayne, 2018. "Land Prices Heading Skyward? An Analysis of Farmland Values across Tanzania," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 187-214.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Rachel Sebudde, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Edgar Edwin Twine, 2016. "Production and Consumption Responses to Policy Interventions in Tanzania's Dairy Industry," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1-2), pages 81-102, June.
    5. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, July.
    6. Nissanke, Machiko, 2019. "Exploring macroeconomic frameworks conducive to structural transformation of sub-Saharan African economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 103-116.
    7. Lara Cockx & Liesbeth Colen & Joachim De Weerdt & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma, 2019. "Urbanization as a driver of changing food demand in Africa: Evidence from rural-urban migration in Tanzania," JRC Research Reports JRC107918, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. Rafael Portillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Stephen O’Connell & Richard Peck, 2016. "Implications of food subsistence for monetary policy and inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 782-810.
    9. Cockx, Lara & Colen, Liesbeth & De Weerdt, Joachim, 2018. "From corn to popcorn? Urbanization and dietary change: Evidence from rural-urban migrants in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 140-159.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 2011/057, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Maureen Teresa Odongo & Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Anne Wangari Kamau & Kethi Ngoka Kisingu, 2022. "Climate Change and Inflation in Eastern and Southern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Bianca AVRAM POP & Simona SABOU, 2018. "The Role Of Agriculture In Romanian Development," Business Excellence and Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 5-18, March.
    4. Minten, Bart & Stifel, David & Tamru, Seneshaw, 2012. "Structural transformation in Ethiopia: Evidence from cereal markets:," ESSP working papers 39, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Raghbendra Jha, 2008. "Inflation targeting in India: issues and prospects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 259-270.
    6. Chen, Li-Ju & Hu, Shih-Wen & Wang, Vey & Wen, Jiandong & Ye, Chusheng, 2014. "The effects of purchasing and price subsidy policies for agricultural products under target zones," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 439-447.
    7. Josef Loening & Masato Higashi, 2011. "Decomposing terms of trade fluctuations in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1219-1224.
    8. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Working Paper 108 - Is there a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Paper Series 245, African Development Bank.
    9. repec:ilo:ilowps:486556 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tefera, Nigussie, 2012. "Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices in Rural Ethiopia: a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Approach," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126698, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Lee, Iona Hyojung, 2018. "Industrial output fluctuations in developing countries: General equilibrium consequences of agricultural productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 240-279.
    12. Mauro Vigani & Hasan Dudu & Gloria Solano-Hermosilla, 2019. "Estimation of food demand parameters in Ethiopia: A Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) approach," JRC Research Reports JRC117125, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    13. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Alam, Kazi Ashraful, 2019. "An Empirical Evidence of Fisher Effect in Bangladesh: A Time-Series Approach," SocArXiv udpwj, Center for Open Science.
    14. Admassie, Assefa, 2013. "The Political Economy of Food Price: The Case of Ethiopia," WIDER Working Paper Series 001, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Alem, Yonas & Köhlin, Gunnar & Stage, Jesper, 2014. "The Persistence of Subjective Poverty in Urban Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 51-61.
    16. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Is There a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers wp218, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    17. Kenneth Baltzer, 2013. "International to Domestic Price Transmission in Fourteen Developing Countries During the 2007-08 Food Crisis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-031, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Philip Kofi Adom & William Bekoe & George Quartey & Kwaku Amakye & Charles Barnor, 2016. "Impact of Market-based Policies and External Fiscal Discipline on Ghana's Inflation," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 794-816, November.
    19. Tidiane Kinda, 2013. "Oil windfall, public spending and price stability: modelling inflation in Chad†," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(21), pages 3122-3135, July.
    20. Constatin MITRUȚ & Mihaela GRUIESCU & Roxana Cristina VÎLCU, 2017. "Modeling the Causes of Inflation in Romania," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 51(3), pages 21-38.
    21. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef, 2009. "Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts," MPRA Paper 25899, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adeleke Oluwole Salami (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdbgci.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.