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Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya

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This study provides an assessment of the main drivers of inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya by developing single-equation error correction models for the Consumer Price Index in each country. This approach takes into account a number of potential sources of the recent surge in inflation, including excess money supply, exchange rates, food and non-food world prices, world energy prices and domestic agricultural supply shocks. We find that the inflation rates in both Ethiopia and Kenya are driven by similar factors; world food prices and exchange rates have a long run impact, while money growth and agricultural supply shocks have short-to-medium run effects. There is also evidence of substantial inflation inertia in both countries. The key conclusion is that there is no nominal anchor for inflation in either country in the form of a clear and well-functioning monetary or exchange rate policy.

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  • Dick Durevall & Bo Sjö, 2012. "Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya," Working Paper Series 400, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:400
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    1. Mame Astou Diouf, 2007. "Modeling Inflation for Mali," IMF Working Papers 2007/295, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 2011/057, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
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    1. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Rachel Sebudde, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. T.H. Abebe, 2021. "Using Models of the GARCH Family to Estimate the Level of Food and Non-Food Inflation in Ethiopia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(4), pages 726-749.
    3. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2014. "Food and Nutrition Scenario of Kenya," MPRA Paper 56218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 May 2014.
    4. Anh D.M. Nguyen & Jemma Dridib & Filiz D. Unsal & Oral H. Williams, 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 71-84.
    5. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert, 2017. "CPI and inflation in Kenya. Structural breaks, non-linearities and dependence," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 72-79.
    6. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2013. "Poverty and economic development of Kenya," MPRA Paper 51072, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jul 2013.
    7. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Jailson da Conceição Teixeira de Oliveira, 2017. "Sub-Saharan African Countries’ Dependence on the External Inflation: Empirical Evidence Using Copulas," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Mark Edem Kunawotor & Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Patrick O. Asuming & Kofi A. Amoateng, 2022. "The Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy in Africa," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 22(2), pages 130-148, April.

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