Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases
AbstractWe study the macroeconomic and welfare effects of decumulating government debt in an overlapping generations model with skill heterogeneity and productive and non-productive government programs. Our results are: First, in the small open economy model calibrated to Greece, the spending-based austerity reform dominates the tax-based reform with respect to income effects but not with respect to the welfare effect. A mixed reform combining the tax-based and spending-based measures results in the largest welfare effects of up to 1.8 percent of pre-reform consumption. Second, the welfare effects vary significantly along the transition to the post reform steady state, depending not only on fiscal austerity measures, but also on skill types, working sectors and generations. When consumption taxes adjust the aggregate welfare effects are positive but the current old and middle age generations experience welfare losses while current young workers and future generations are beneficiaries. Third, interactions between fiscal distortions and the risk premium as well as accessibility to international capital markets strongly influence the effects of fiscal austerity. Larger growth and welfare effects are observed when the risk premium is larger than zero and when access to international capital markets is restricted.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics with number 2012-594.
Length: 47 Pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2013. "Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases," Working Papers 2013-01, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2013.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
- J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2012-11-17 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-FDG-2012-11-17 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2012-11-17 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2012-11-17 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barro, Robert J, 1990.
"Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell B. Leith, 2012.
"Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations,"
NBER Working Papers
17844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bi, Huixin & Leeper, Eric M. & Leith, Campbell, 2012. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-09, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2013. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers 13-26, Bank of Canada.
- Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2012. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers 2012_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2010.
"Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010,"
2010-31, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2011. "Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010," Working Papers 201102, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
- Chung Tran & Juergen Jung, 2011. "Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-539, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Michael G. Arghyrou & John D. Tsoukalas, 2011.
"The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 173-191, 02.
- Michael G. Arghyrou & John D. Tsoukalas, 2010. "The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 3266, CESifo Group Munich.
- Arghyrou, Michael G & Tsoukalas, John D., 2010. "The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983.
"Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital," Discussion Papers 532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Tsakloglou, Panos & Cholezas, Ioannis, 2005. "Education and Inequality in Greece," IZA Discussion Papers 1582, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Barro, Robert J., 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Gerali, Andrea & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2010. "The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in euro area countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1791-1812, September.
- Real Arai, 2011.
"Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis,
Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 67(4), pages 327-351, December.
- Arai, Real, 2008. "Productive government expenditure and fiscal sustainability," MPRA Paper 8553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 13-27, Bank of Canada.
- Owen O'Donnell & Platon Tinios, 2003. "The Politics of Pension Reform: Lessons from Public Attitudes in Greece," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 51(2), pages 262-281, 06.
- Laitner, John, 1984. "Transition time paths for overlapping-generations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 111-129, May.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004.
"Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market,"
Working Paper Series
0369, European Central Bank.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2003. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
- Yakita, Akira, 2008. "Sustainability of public debt, public capital formation, and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 897-914, April.
- Ireland, Peter N., 1994. "Supply-side economics and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 559-571, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.