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Global Temperature Trends

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  • Trevor Breusch

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  • Farshid Vahid

    ()

Abstract

Are global temperatures on a warming trend? It is difficult to be certain about trends when there is so much variation in the data and very high correlation from year to year. We investigate the question using statistical time series methods. Our analysis shows that the upward movement over the last 130-160 years is persistent and not explained by the high correlation, so it is best described as a trend. The warming trend becomes steeper after the mid-1970s, but there is no significant evidence for a break in trend in the late 1990s. Viewed from the perspective of 30 or 50 years ago, the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the confidence band of forecasts produced by a model that does not allow for a warming trend.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics with number 2008-495.

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Length: 15 Pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2008-495

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  1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06.
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Cited by:
  1. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

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