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News And Expectations In Financial Markets: An Experimental Study

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Author Info
Gordon Menzies ()
Daniel Zizzo ()

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Abstract

We consider an experimental setting where traders in stock markets or exchange rate markets receive one stylized piece of information at a time about the value of an asset. We find that having limited knowledge about the prior distribution of true asset values does not hamper the decision making by traders and markets. There is empirical support for the common modeling assumption of simplifying agent heterogeneity into two types, a rational one and a less rational one. A correspondence exists between the average degree of belief conservatism found with individual buying and selling prices and that observed with market prices.

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File URL: http://cama.anu.edu.au/Working%20Papers/Papers/2008/Menzies_Zizzo_342008.pdf
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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2008-34.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:camaaa:2008-34

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Gordon D. Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2005. "Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2005-12, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Evans, Dorla A, 1997. "The Role of Markets in Reducing Expected Utility Violations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 622-36, June.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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