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Inflation Dynamics With Search Frctions: A Structural Econometric Analysis

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Author Info
Michael Krause
David Lopez-Salido
Thomas Lubik ()

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Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips curve explains inflation dynamics as being driven by current and expected future real marginal costs. In competitive labor markets, the labor share can serve as a proxy for the latter. In this paper, we study the role of real marginal cost components implied by search frictions in the labor market. We construct a measure of real marginal costs by using newly available labor market data on worker finding rates. Over the business cycle, the measure is highly correlated with the labor share. Estimates of the Phillips curve using GMM reveal that the marginal cost measure remains significant, and that inflation dynamics are mainly driven by the forward-looking component. Bayesian estimation of the full New Keynesian model with search frictions helps us disentangle which shocks are driving the economy to generate the observed unit labor cost dynamics. We find that mark-up shocks are the dominant force in labor market fluctuations.

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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2008-06.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:acb:camaaa:2008-06

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher Reicher, 2009. "What Can a New Keynesian Labor Matching Model Match?," Kiel Working Papers 1496, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 361-395. [Downloadable!]
  3. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2008. "Labor market search and interest rate policy," Research Working Paper RWP 08-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2009. "Structural Inflation Models with Real Wage Rigidities: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 09-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "DSGE model-based estimation of the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 397-433. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(16), pages 1-31. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Andrea Hornstein, 2008. "Introduction to the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 301-309. [Downloadable!]
  8. Thomas A. Lubik, 2009. "Estimating a search and matching model of the aggregate labor market," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 101-120. [Downloadable!]
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