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Limited Rationality And Strategic Interaction: The Impact Of The Strategic Environment On Nominal Inertia

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Ernst Fehr
Jean-Robert Tyran

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Abstract

Much evidence suggests that people are heterogeneous with regard to their abilities to make rational, forward-looking decisions. This raises the question as to when the rational types are decisive for aggregate outcomes and when the boundedly rational types shape aggregate results. We examine this question in the context of a long-standing and important economic problem: the adjustment of nominal prices after an anticipated monetary shock. Our experiments suggest that two types of bounded rationality – money illusion and anchoring – are important behavioral forces behind nominal inertia. However, depending on the strategic environment, bounded rationality has vastly different effects on aggregate price adjustment. If agents’ actions are strategic substitutes, adjustment to the new equilibrium is extremely quick, whereas under strategic complementarity, adjustment is both very slow and associated with relatively large real effects. This adjustment difference is driven by price expectations, which are very flexible and forward-looking under substitutability but adaptive and sticky under complementarity. Moreover, subjects’ expectations are also considerably more rational under substitutability.

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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2007-26.

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Length: 69 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:acb:camaaa:2007-26

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  1. Oh, S. & Waldman, M., 1990. "The Macroeconomic Effects Of False Announcements," Papers 17, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
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  2. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2001. "Does Money Illusion Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1239-1262, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Vernon L. Smith, 1962. "An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 322. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Russell, Thomas & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "The Relevance of Quasi Rationality in Competitive Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1071-82, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 78-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Smith, Vernon L, 1982. "Microeconomic Systems as an Experimental Science," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 923-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Uri Gneezy & Arie Kapteyn & Jan Potters, 2003. "Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 821-838, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Haltiwanger, John C & Waldman, Michael, 1989. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Complements: The Implications for Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 463-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bryant, John, 1983. "A Simple Rational Expectations Keynes-Type Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 525-28, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "A Near-rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Intertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 823-38, Supp.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1991. "Sticky Prices as Coordination Failure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 539-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1993. "Automobiles and the National Industrial Recovery Act: Evidence on Industry Complementarities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1043-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Haltiwanger, John & Waldman, Michael, 1985. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 326-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Ernst Fehr & Urs Fischbacher, 2002. "Why Social Preferences Matter -- The Impact of Non-Selfish Motives on Competition, Cooperation and Incentives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C1-C33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, . "Expectations and the Effects of Money Illusion," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 115, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2009. "Experimental Evidence on Inflation Expectation Formation," Discussion Paper 2009-07, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 05-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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