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Monopolistic Unions, Brainard Uncertainty, And Optimal Monetary Policy

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Timo Henckel ()
Abstract

Some authors have argued that multiplicative uncertainty may be beneficial to society as the cautionary move reduces the inflation bias. Contrary to this claim, I show that, when there are non-atomistic wage setters, an increase in multiplicative uncertainty rises the real wage premium and unemployment and hence may reduce welfare. Furthermore, since central bank preferences also affect real variables, delegating policy to an independent central banker with an optimal degree of conservatism cannot, in general, deliver a second-best outcome.

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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2006-16.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:acb:camaaa:2006-16

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E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Francesco Lippi, 2003. "Strategic Monetary Policy with Non-Atomistic Wage Setters," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 909-919, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lawler, Phillip, 2000. "Centralised Wage Setting, Inflation Contracts, and the Optimal Choice of Central Banker," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 559-75, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cubitt, Robin P, 1992. "Monetary Policy Games and Private Sector Precommitment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 513-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Schellekens, Philip, 2002. "Caution and Conservatism in the Making of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 160-77, February.
  5. Skott, Peter, 1997. "Stagflationary Consequences of Prudent Monetary Policy in a Unionized Economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 609-22, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. S[empty]rensen, Jan Rose, 1991. "Political uncertainty and macroeconomic performance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 377-381, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pearce, Douglas K. & Sobue, Motoshi, 1997. "Uncertainty and the inflation bias of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 203-207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Swank, Otto H, 1994. " Better Monetary Control May Increase the Inflationary Bias of Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 96(1), pages 125-31.
  10. Hafiz A. Akhand, 1992. "Policy Credibility and Inflation in a Wage-Setting Game," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 407-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Fabrizio Coricelli & Alex Cukierman & Alberto Dalmazzo, 2006. "Monetary Institutions, Monopolistic Competition, Unionized Labor Markets and Economic Performance," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 108(1), pages 39-63, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hans Peter Grüner & Bernd Hayo & Carsten Hefeker, 2005. "Unions, wage setting and monetary policy uncertainty," Working Paper Series 490, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Guzzo, Vincenzo & Velasco, Andres, 1999. "The case for a populist Central Banker," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1317-1344, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. David Soskice & Torben Iversen, 2000. "The Nonneutrality Of Monetary Policy With Large Price Or Wage Setters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 265-284, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Oswald, Andrew J, 1982. "The Microeconomic Theory of the Trade Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 576-95, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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