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Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance

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Warwick J. McKibbin ()

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Abstract

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarizes the key features of the current and projected future demographic change that are likely to have macroeconomic effects. It then develops and applies a new ten regions DSGE model (the MSG3 model) incorporating demographic dynamics, to examine the impacts of projected global demographic change on the world economy from 2005 to 2100. The focus in this paper is on Japan and the effects of demographic change on recent Japanese macroeconomic performance as well as projected performance over the remainder of this century. A distinction is made between the effects on Japan of demographic change that occurs in Japan and the effects on Japan of the equally large demographic changes occurring in the rest of the world.

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File URL: http://cama.anu.edu.au/Working%20Papers/Papers/2005/McKibbin_132005.pdf
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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-13.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:camaaa:2005-13

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  4. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2001. "Policies and Prospects in Japan and The Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 01/131, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," MEA discussion paper series 03028, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. Mcdonald, 2004. "Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages S1-S12, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Hamid Faruqee, 2003. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-specific Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 300-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-1), pages 1-74. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Gehlhar, Mark & Dohlman, Erik, 2006. "Macroeconomic and Global Growth Influences on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21324, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  2. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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