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Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance

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Author Info
Warwick J. McKibbin ()

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Abstract

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarizes the key features of the current and projected future demographic change that are likely to have macroeconomic effects. It then develops and applies a new ten regions DSGE model (the MSG3 model) incorporating demographic dynamics, to examine the impacts of projected global demographic change on the world economy from 2005 to 2100. The focus in this paper is on Japan and the effects of demographic change on recent Japanese macroeconomic performance as well as projected performance over the remainder of this century. A distinction is made between the effects on Japan of demographic change that occurs in Japan and the effects on Japan of the equally large demographic changes occurring in the rest of the world.

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File URL: http://cama.anu.edu.au/Working%20Papers/Papers/2005/McKibbin_132005.pdf
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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-13.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:acb:camaaa:2005-13

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2001. "Policies and Prospects in Japan and The Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 01/131, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," MEA discussion paper series 03028, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. Mcdonald, 2004. "Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages S1-S12, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Steven A. Symansky, 1996. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constrains: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Working Papers 96/140, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Hamid Faruqee, 2003. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-specific Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 300-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Noriyuki Takayama & Yukinobu Kitamura, 1999. "Lessons from Generational Accounting in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 171-175, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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