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Convergence And Per Capita Carbon Emissions

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Author Info
Warwick J. McKibbin ()
Alison Stegman ()

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Abstract

The notion of "convergence" of economic variables across countries is a useful concept and in the case of income per capita, a well studied area. If there is empirical evidence of convergence of some economic variables across countries, then our ability to prdict the future (or at least difference between countries in the future) is enhanced. It is common in long run projections of climate change to base these projections on some notion of full or partial convergence whether in incomes per capita, teachnologies, energy intensities, emissions intensities of energy or per capita carbon emissions. But what is the empirical basis of these assumptions? This paper explores the historical experience of a range of variables related to climate change projections with the goal of examining if there is any evidence historically of convergence. The focus of the paper is on per capita carbon emissions from fossil fuel use because this is the basis of many projections as well as a variety of policy proposals. We also present evidence on GDP per capita, energy intensity of output and the emissions intensity o energy supply. We find strong evidence that the wide variety of assumptions about "convergence" commonly used in emissions projections are not based on empirically observed phenomena.

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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-10.

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Length: 75 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:camaaa:2005-10

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2001. "15 Years of New Growth Economics: What Have We Learnt?," Economics Working Papers 620, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Henry G. Overman & Diego Puga, 2002. "Unemployment clusters across Europe's regions and countries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 115-148, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Danny Quah, 1995. "Convergence Empirics across Economies with (Some) Capital Mobility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0257, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David I. Stern, 2005. "The Effect of NAFTA on Energy and Environmental Efficiency in Mexico," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0511, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. D.S. Prasada Rao & Alicia Rambaldi & Howard Doran, 2008. "A Method to Construct World Tables of Purchasing Power Parities and Real Incomes Based on Multiple Benchmarks and Auxiliary Information: Analytical and Empirical Results," CEPA Working Papers Series WP052008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Westerlund, Joakim & Basher, Syed A., 2007. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," MPRA Paper 3262, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. repec:mop:credwp:08.12.79 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2008. "Stochastic Divergence or Convergence of Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Re-examining the Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 121-137, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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