This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A Phillips Curve For China

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Joerg Scheibe ()
David Vines ()

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world's sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate a partially forward-looking Phillips curve as well as traditional backward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly data from 1988 to 2002, we estimate a vertical long-run Phillips curve for China and show that the output gap, the exchange rate, and inflation expectations play important roles in explaining inflation. We adjust for structural change in the economy where possible and estimate regressions for rolling sample windows in order to test for and uncover gradual structural change. We evaluate a number of alternative output gap estimates and find that output gaps which are derived from prodcution function estimations for the Chinese economy are of more use in estimating a Phillips curve than output gaps derived from simple statistical trends. Partially forward-looking Phillips curves provide a better fit than backward-looking ones. The identification of a non-increasing exchange rate effect on inlation during a period of large import growth hints at increased pricing to market behaviour by importers. This result is relevant to policies regarding possible exchange rate liberalisation in China.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cama.anu.edu.au/Working%20Papers/Papers/2005/Scheibe_Vines_022005.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-02.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:camaaa:2005-02

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Canberra, ACT 0200
Phone: +61 2 6125 3807
Fax: +61 2 6125 0744
Email:
Web page: http://cama.anu.edu.au/publications.htm
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Lu, M & Zhang, Z, 1998. "Exchange Rate Reform and its Inflationary Consequences: An Empirical Analysis for China," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9808, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    Other versions:
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Wu, Harry X, 2000. "China's GDP Level and Growth Performance: Alternative Estimates and the Implications," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 475-99, December.
  9. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Kirby, Michael G, 1981. "An Investigation of the Specification and Stability of the Australian Aggregate Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(156), pages 35-46, March.
  11. Chow, Gregory C., 1987. "Money and price level determination in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 319-333, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Woo Wing Thye, 1994. "The Art of Reforming Centrally Planned Economies: Comparing China, Poland, and Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Chow, Gregory C, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-42, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Yash P. Mehra, 2004. "The Output Gap, Expected Future Inflation and Inflation Dynamics: Another Look," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  24. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. Yusuf, Shahid, 1994. "China's Macroeconomic Performance and Management during Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 71-92, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Allsopp, Christopher, 1995. "Macroeconomic Control and Reform in China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 43-53, Winter.
  28. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2004. "Weak Identification of Forward-looking Models in Monetary Economics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 609-635, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Yash P. Mehra, 2004. "The output gap, expected future inflation and inflation dynamics: another look," Working Paper 04-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  30. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Joshua Aizenman, 2000. "Endogenous Pricing to Market and Financing Costs," NBER Working Papers 7914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Phylaktis, Kate & Girardin, Eric, 2001. "Foreign exchange markets in transition economies: China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 215-235, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are "deep" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  34. GERLACH, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2006. "Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 210-225. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  35. Stefan E. Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 97/135, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  38. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard CK Burdekin & Ilan Noy, 2005. "What Has Driven Chinese Monetary Policy Since 1990? Investigating the People's Bank's Policy Rule," Economics Study Area Working Papers 85, East-West Center, Economics Study Area. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aaron Mehrotra & Tuomas Peltonen & Alvaro Santos Rivera, 2007. "Modelling inflation in China - a regional perspective," Working Paper Series 829, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Funke, Michael, 2005. "Inflation in mainland China – modelling a roller coaster ride," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pami Dua & Upasna Gaur, 2009. "Determination of Inflation in an Open Economy Phillips Curve Framework-- The Case of Developed and Developing Asian Countries," Working papers 178, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All top Economics journals are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.