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A Smooth Transition Logit Model of the Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market

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  • A.S. Hurn

    ()
    (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)

  • Annastiina Silvennoinen

    ()
    (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)

  • Timo Teräsvirta

    ()
    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of specification, including testing linearity, estimation and evaluation of these models is constructed. Nonlinear least squares estimation of the parameters of the model is discussed. Evaluation by misspecification tests is carried out using tests derived in a companion paper. The use of the modelling strategy is illustrated by two applications. In the first one, the dynamic relationship between the US gasoline price and consumption is studied and possible asymmetries in it considered. The second application consists of modelling two well known Icelandic riverflow series, previously considered by many hydrologists and time series analysts. JEL Classification: C23, C51, L94, Q41.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2014-09.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 03 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2014-09

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

Related research

Keywords: Smooth transition; binary choice model; logit model; electricity spot prices; peak load pricing; price spikes;

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  1. M. T. Barlow, 2002. "A Diffusion Model For Electricity Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 287-298.
  2. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo_Gustavo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Finance, EconWPA 0501011, EconWPA, revised 10 Sep 2005.
  3. Ralf Becker & Stan Hurn & Vlad Pavlov, 2007. "Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(263), pages 371-382, December.
  4. Eric Hillebrand & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Junyue Xu, 2012. "Asymptotic Theory for Regressions with Smoothly Changing Parameters," CREATES Research Papers, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2012-31, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
  6. Adam Clements & Joanne Fuller & Stan Hurn, 2013. "Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 508-521, December.
  7. Barry K. Goodwin & Matthew T. Holt & Jeffrey P. Prestemon, 2011. "North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 993-1014.
  8. Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
  9. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
  10. repec:qut:auncer:2012_5 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005. "Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55.
  12. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2013-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
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