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Heterogeneous Beliefs, Public Information, and Option Markets

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  • Zhenjiang Qin

    ()
    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

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    Abstract

    In an incomplete market setting with heterogeneous prior beliefs, I show that public information and strike price of option have substantial infl?uence on asset pricing in option markets, by investigating an absolute option pricing model with negative exponential utility investors and normally distributed dividend. I demonstrate that heterogeneous prior variances give rise to the economic value of option markets. In- vestors speculate in option market and public information improves allocational efficiency of markets only when there is heterogeneity in prior variance. Heterogeneity in mean is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for generating speculations in op- tion markets. With heterogeneous beliefs, options are non-redundant assets which can facilitate side-betting and enable investors to take advantage of the disagreements and the differences in con?dence. This fact leads to a higher growth rate in the investors? certainty equivalents and, thus, a higher equilibrium interest rate. The public infor- mation system facilitates improved dynamic trading opportunities in option markets based on the heterogeneously updated posterior beliefs. With an intermediate signal precision and the option with intermediate strike price, the highest efficiency of side- betting is achieved, re?ected by a unique maximum point of the ex ante equilibrium interest rate. The public signal precision affects ex ante equilibrium risk premium only via its relationship with option.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2012-23.

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    Length: 53
    Date of creation: 04 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-23

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    Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

    Related research

    Keywords: Heterogeneous Beliefs; Public Information Quality; Option Market; Dynamic Trading; Bayesian Learning.;

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    1. Paul Milgrom & Nancy L.Stokey, 1979. "Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge," Discussion Papers 377R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    2. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
    3. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, 04.
    4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    5. Snehal Banerjee & Ilan Kremer, 2010. "Disagreement and Learning: Dynamic Patterns of Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1269-1302, 08.
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    7. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    8. Morris, Stephen, 1995. "The Common Prior Assumption in Economic Theory," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 227-253, October.
    9. Joel M. Vanden, 2004. "Options Trading and the CAPM," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 207-238.
    10. Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G. & Soliman, Mark T. & Tuna, Irem, 2005. "Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 437-485, September.
    11. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, 06.
    12. Alexander David, 2008. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Speculation, and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 41-83, 02.
    13. Hakansson, Nils H & Kunkel, J Gregory & Ohlson, James A, 1982. " Sufficient and Necessary Conditions for Information to Have Social Value in Pure Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1169-81, December.
    14. Liu, Jun & Pan, Jun, 2003. "Dynamic Derivative Strategies," Working papers 4334-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    15. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1996. "Information, Trade, and Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 163-208.
    16. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
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