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A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

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  • Agne Lauzadyte

    ()
    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

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    Abstract

    In this paper I estimate a discrete time hazard model for the exits from the different labour market states - unemployment, employment and inactivity (or OLF) - in the Danish labour market. I find that women and individuals over fifty are more likely to experience the long-term unemployment and inactivity. The less educated and unskilled workers are found to be another risk group to face the marginalisation from the labour market. Being previously employed reduces the risk of OLF, and increases the re-entry to employment probability, while living in the biggest Danish cities makes persons disadvantaged. These give the evidence that the "Flexicurity"model makes the weakest individuals disadvantaged in the Danish labour market. And finally, I find that those, who survived in a job one year, tend to remain employed, while persons, longer than one year inactive, face much higher risk of marginalisation.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/afn/wp/07/wp07_18.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2007-18.

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    Length: 51
    Date of creation: 14 Oct 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2007-18

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    Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

    Related research

    Keywords: discrete time hazard model; labour market transitions; marginalisation;

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    References

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    1. Jensen, Peter & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2003. "The response of youth unemployment to benefits, incentives, and sanctions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 301-316, June.
    2. Ours, J.C. van & Lomwel, A.G.C. van & Berg, G. van den, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of a Dependent Competing Risks Model for Unemployment Durations," Discussion Paper 2003-93, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    4. Dragana Djurdjevic, 2003. "Unemployment and under-employment: the case of Switzerland," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2003 2003-18, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    5. Jones, Melanie K. & Jones, Richard J. & Murphy, Philip D. & Sloane, Peter J., 2005. "The Dynamics of the National Minimum Wage: Transitions Between Different Labour Market States," IZA Discussion Papers 1690, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. ûivind Anti Nilsen & Alf Erling Risa & Alf Torstensen, 2000. "Transitions from employment among young Norwegian workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    7. Lauer, Charlotte, 2003. "Education and Unemployment: A French-German Comparison," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-34, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Rosholm, Michael, 2001. "An Analysis of the Processes of Labour Market Exclusion and (Re-) Inclusion," IZA Discussion Papers 332, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Pedro Portugal & John T. Addison, 2003. "Six Ways to Leave Unemployment," Working Papers w200311, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Costas Meghir & Whitehouse, E, 1995. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Berg, Gerard J. van den & Ours, Jan C. van, 1996. "Duration dependence and heterogeneity in French youth unemployment durations," Serie Research Memoranda 0044, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    12. Kræn Blume & Mette Ejrnæs & Helena Nielsen & Allan Würtz, 2009. "Labor market transitions of immigrants with emphasis on marginalization and self-employment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 881-908, October.
    13. repec:ese:iserwp:2000-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Michael Rosholm, 2001. "Cyclical variations in unemployment duration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 173-191.
    15. Böheim, René & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Duration and Exit States in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Steiner, Viktor, 2001. " Unemployment Persistence in the West German Labour Market: Negative Duration Dependence or Sorting?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(1), pages 91-113, February.
    17. Bradley, Steve & Crouchley, Rob & Oskrochi, Reza, 2003. "Social exclusion and labour market transitions: a multi-state multi-spell analysis using the BHPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 659-679, December.
    18. Small, Kenneth A & Hsiao, Cheng, 1985. "Multinomial Logit Specification Tests," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 619-27, October.
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