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Wage Formation and the (Non-)Existence of the NAIRU

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Author Info
Peter Skott () (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

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Abstract

The influence of NAIRU theory on economic policy is both puzzling and unfortunate, especially in a European context. This paper shows that standard rationality assumptions and objective functions may fail to generate a well-defined NAIRU in a unionized economy. It then presents two simple models with endogenous wage aspirations. One version of the model produces a unique long-run NAIRU while the other implies the presence of aspiration-induced hysteresis in the employment rate. The hysteretic version seems preferable on theoretical grounds and - at a stylized level - this version also fits the empirical evidence better than the non-hysteretic version. The argument implies that an expansionary aggregate demand policy combined with temporary incomes policies may reduce European unemployment permanently without adverse inflationary consequences.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1998-16.

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Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:1998-16

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Related research
Keywords: NAIRU; wage aspirations; hysteresis; Phillips curve; inflationary bias;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Shafir, Eldar & Diamond, Peter & Tversky, Amos, 1997. "Money Illusion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 341-74, May.
  2. Skott, P., 1990. "Efficiency Wages, Mark-Up Pricing And Effective Demand," Papers 9026, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  3. Kaldor, Nicholas [Lord], 1976. "Inflation and Recession in the World Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(344), pages 703-14, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Martin Paldam & Gert Tinggaard Svendsen & Gert Tinggaard Svendsen, . "An Essay on Social Capital. Reflections on a Concept Linking Social Sciences," Economics Working Papers 1998-8, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  5. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Cornwall, J & Cornwall, W, 1997. "Unemployment Costs of Inflation Targeting," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive 97-04, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
  7. Goodhart, Charles A E, 1994. "What Should Central Banks Do? What Should Be Their Macroeconomic Objectives and Operations?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1424-36, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bowles, Samuel, 1985. "The Production Process in a Competitive Economy: Walrasian, Neo-Hobbesian, and Marxian Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 16-36, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Forder, James, 1996. "On the Assessment and Implementation of 'Institutional' Remedies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 39-51, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Cubitt, Robin P, 1992. "Monetary Policy Games and Private Sector Precommitment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 513-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
  13. Skott, Peter, 1997. "Stagflationary Consequences of Prudent Monetary Policy in a Unionized Economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 609-22, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stiglitz, Joseph, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Cornwall, J & Cornwall, W, 1997. "Unemployment Costs of Inflation Targeting," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive 97-04, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
  16. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-18, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Taylor, Lance, 1985. "A Stagnationist Model of Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 383-403, December.
  18. Galbraith, James K, 1997. "Time to Ditch the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-108, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 1998. "Central Bank Independence, Centralization of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment - Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1847, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter Skott, 2004. "Fairness as a source of hysteresis in employment and relative wages," Working Papers 2004-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Peter Skott, 2008. "Theoretical and empirical shortcomings of the Kaleckian investment function," Working Papers 2008-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Amitava K. Dutt & Peter Skott, 2005. "Keynesian Theory and the AD-AS Framework: A Reconsideration," Working Papers 2005-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Torben M.Andersen & Svend Hylleberg, . "Sources of Persistence in Employment Adjustment - Denmark 1974-1993," Economics Working Papers 1998-19, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2008. "Financialization in Kaleckian economies with and without labor constraints," Working Papers 2008-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Peter Skott & Soon Ryoo, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of financialization," Working Papers 2007-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Peter Skott, 2008. "Growth, instability and cycles: Harrodian and Kaleckian models of accumulation and income distribution," Working Papers 2008-12, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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