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Is The Federal Reserve Stock Market Bubble-Neutral?

In: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays

Author

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  • Marc D. Hayford
  • A. G. Malliaris

Abstract

This paper argues that the Fed was not stock market bubble-neutral during the last several years. This nonneutrality implies two options: first, the Fed has used monetary policies to prevent the building of the stock market bubble or, second, the Fed has contributed to its development and subsequent deflation. We supply representative quotes from the FOMC transcripts to establish that the Fed has paid significant attention to the valuation of the stock market. These quotes confirm that the stock market's valuation was an important variable in the Fed's decision-making and its conduct of monetary policy. We also conduct econometric modeling, by extending the Taylor rule and using data for the 1987–2000 period, to argue that the Fed, perhaps unintentionally, has contributed to the stock market's overvaluation and subsequent decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc D. Hayford & A. G. Malliaris, 2005. "Is The Federal Reserve Stock Market Bubble-Neutral?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 13, pages 207-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789812701015_0013
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymptotic Economic Growth; Inflation; Interest Rates; Asset Pricing; Equity Markets; Foreign Currency; Monetary Policy; Crash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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