Scenario Prediction of Japanese Software Industry Through Hybrid Method

This paper aims at considering the possibility of the future scenario predictions of Japanese software industry through hybrid method. Thus, we try to preliminarily develop a new research framework by connecting the data obtained by large-scale fact-finding investigations, the statistical analyses results using the dynamic modeling, and the future scenarios of Japanese software industry through the simulation. First, we designed a large-scale social survey of the enterprise software industry in Japan, administered it, and developed a measurement tool of the software engineering capabilities with Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Second, we empirically verified that the human resource development of the IT firms improves the operational software engineering capabilities, and that the enhancement of the software engineering capabilities tends to improve the business performance of the IT firms in long term using the dynamic modeling. Third, we are trying to visualize the future scenario of Japanese software industry through the agent-based simulation. This research includes the following original characteristics of academic research and expected results. First, the research suggests the guideline of the global technological strategy for Japan’s software industry to ensure sustainable competitive advantage through the connection among large-scale social surveys, statistical analyses, and future prospects. Second, the research is a challenge for evidence-based visualization of industrial growth scenario by integrating society’s intellectual caliber, which has evolved individually, such as fact-finding investigation conducted with METI, management theory, statistical analyses, and social simulation models. Third, the research has a possibility of evolving of the methods of designing for management of technology as a national strategy, from the viewpoint of management of technology, such as scale of players, technology paradigm shifts, global competitions and collaborations. Fourth, the methods through the connection among large-scale social surveys, statistical analyses, and future prospects, developed in the software industry in Japan can be expanded to any other sectors in any countries.