IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/tkp/tiim13/s2_33-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Can Heuristic Valuation Improve Investment Performance Of Individual Investors?

Author

Listed:
  • Mariusz Kicia

    (Maria Curie-Sklodowska University, Poland)

Abstract

The paper presents concept of simplified valuation models and tests their usefulness in application by individual investors at the Polish stock market over 2000-2013. It is discussed whether it would be rational to combine common fundamental valuation methods of multiples and DCF, preserving the relative simplicity of multiples as well as complexity and consistency of discounted cash flows to provide useful hybrid tool even when individual investors follow behavioral heuristics and simplifications while making investment decisions. Results of experiments indicate that use of proposed valuation methods wouldn’t have an unequivocal impact on investment strategy of irrational individual investors with quite a low average improvements of annual returns (from 5,2% to 10,5% extra return) only in about a half of all 415 analyzed stocks. Tests are preceded by results of the survey conducted on 66 experienced and 136 inexperienced individual investors to compare their investment techniques and attitudes. It is shown that rising experience in investment causes investors to follow intuition in risk assessment that may end in overconfidence. 74% of respondents without experience declared that they would measure investment risk in some way while practitioners usually don’t use measures but rather sense risk. Inexperienced respondents are more likely to use Fundamental Analysis tools than real investors in practice. Answers also suggest that the more investors are experienced the more often they declare using Technical Analysis tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Kicia, 2013. "Can Heuristic Valuation Improve Investment Performance Of Individual Investors?," Diversity, Technology, and Innovation for Operational Competitiveness: Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management,, ToKnowPress.
    • Handle: RePEc:tkp:tiim13:s2_33-49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.toknowpress.net/ISBN/978-961-6914-07-9/papers/S2_33-49.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markku Kaustia & Samuli Knüpfer, 2008. "Do Investors Overweight Personal Experience? Evidence from IPO Subscriptions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2679-2702, December.
    2. Thierry Foucault & David Sraer & David J. Thesmar, 2011. "Individual Investors and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1369-1406, August.
    3. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring.
    4. De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Boram & Rosenthal, Leonard & Veld, Chris & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia, 2015. "Stock market expectations and risk aversion of individual investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 122-131.
    2. Khan, Mohammad Tariqul Islam & Tan, Siow-Hooi & Chong, Lee-Lee, 2017. "How past perceived portfolio returns affect financial behaviors—The underlying psychological mechanism," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1478-1488.
    3. Hu, Zongyi & Li, Chao, 2015. "Investor Sentiment and Irrational Speculative Bubble Model," MPRA Paper 62108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
    5. Hahl, Teemu & Vähämaa, Sami & Äijö, Janne, 2014. "Value versus growth in IPOs: New evidence from Finland," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 17-31.
    6. Baig, Ahmed S. & Blau, Benjamin M. & Butt, Hassan A. & Yasin, Awaid, 2022. "Do retail traders destabilize financial markets? An investigation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Li Qian & Mingsheng Li & Yan Li, 2020. "Does news travel slowly before a market crash? The role of margin traders," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 3065-3101, September.
    8. Arnold, Marc & Pelster, Matthias & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2022. "Attention triggers and investors’ risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 846-875.
    9. Baig, Ahmed S. & Blau, Benjamin M. & Butt, Hassan A. & Yasin, Awaid, 2023. "Reprint of: Do retail traders destabilize financial markets? An investigation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Arvid O. I. Hoffmann & Thomas Post & Tom Smith, 2017. "How return and risk experiences shape investor beliefs and preferences," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 759-788, September.
    11. Dan Zhu & Qingwei Wang & John Goddard, 2022. "A new hedging hypothesis regarding prediction interval formation in stock price forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 697-717, July.
    12. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2017. "Is stock investment contagious among siblings?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1505-1528, June.
    13. Niculaescu, Corina E. & Sangiorgi, Ivan & Bell, Adrian R., 2023. "Does personal experience with COVID-19 impact investment decisions? Evidence from a survey of US retail investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Lovric, M. & Kaymak, U. & Spronk, J., 2008. "A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-030-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    15. Seungwook Bahng, 2003. "Do Psychological Barriers Exist in the Stock Price Indices? Evidence from Asia's Emerging Markets," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 35-52, March.
    16. Baruch, Shmuel & Panayides, Marios & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2017. "Informed trading and price discovery before corporate events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 561-588.
    17. Bellonia Antonella & Passaretti Tommaso & Visconti Raffaele, 2013. "Seasonality in Equity Rising on Stock Markets. Windows of Opportunity? Empirical Evidence from China, India, Brazil and South Africa," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 3(4), pages 1-1, August.
    18. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Age, housing demand, and real house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August.
    21. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tkp:tiim13:s2_33-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maks Jezovnik (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.toknowpress.net/conferences .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.