IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/sls/lfpcbe/04.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Demographic Shifts and Labour Force Participation Rates in Canada

In: A Symposium on Canadian Labour Force Participation in the 1990s (Special Issue of Canadian Business Economics, Volume 7, Number 2, May 1999)

Author

Listed:
  • Bob Dugan
  • Benoît Robidoux

Abstract

Labour force participation rates vary greatly by age, with persons 55 and over having much lower participation rates than younger persons. Consequently, changes in the demographic composition of the population can exert a long-run effect on aggregate participation rates. In the third article of the symposium, Bob Dugan and Benoît Robidoux examine the impact of demographic shifts on labour force participation in Canada. They use an accounting framework and plausible trend participation rates for 16 demographic groups with source population estimates to estimate an aggregate structural participation rate for Canada. They find that the ageing of the population has already started to exert downward pressure on the aggregate participation rate in Canada due to longer life expectancy and the resulting growing proportion of the population in the low-participation rate 65 and over age group. The movement of the baby boom generation into the 65 and over group in coming years will intensify this trend. Between 1989 and 1997 they find that the demographic composition effect reduced the aggregate participation rate by almost 1 percentage point, and that from now to 2030 it will reduce the participation rate by an additional 8.5 points. Of course, greater than expected trend increases in labour force participation rates by older age groups could offset some of this composition effect. The authors point out that changes in demographic composition had virtually no effect on the participation rate in the 1990s in the United States as the share of the population 65 and over was stable. This situation reflects the fact that the United States became an “older” society earlier than Canada due to an earlier and smaller baby boom and a higher average age for immigrants. Dugan and Robidoux calculate a trend participation rate of 66.2 in 1997, 1.4 percentage points above the actual rate of 64.8 per cent. Based on this rate they conclude that about one half of the 2.7 point decline in the participation rate in the 1990s was structural and one half cyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Bob Dugan & Benoît Robidoux, 1999. "Demographic Shifts and Labour Force Participation Rates in Canada," A Symposium on Canadian Labour Force Participation in the 1990s (Special Issue of Canadian Business Economics, Volume 7, Number 2, May 1999), in: Andrew Sharpe & Louis Grignon (ed.),A Symposium on Canadian Labour Force Participation in the 1990s (Special Issue of Canadian Business Economics, Volume 7, Number 2, May 1999), pages 42-56, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:lfpcbe:04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/journals/simp/simp04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Beaudry & Thomas Lemieux, 1999. "Evolution of the Female Labour Force Participation Rate in Canada, 1976-1994," CIRANO Project Reports 1999rp-02, CIRANO.
    2. George J. Borjas, 1993. "Immigration Policy, National Origin, and Immigrant Skills: A Comparison of Canada and the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Small Differences That Matter: Labor Markets and Income Maintenance in Canada and the United States, pages 21-44, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Card, David & Freeman, Richard B. (ed.), 1993. "Small Differences That Matter," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092836, Febrero.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Thomas Lemieux, 1999. "Evolution of the Female Labour Force Participation Rate in Canada, 1976-1994: a Cohort Analysis," A Symposium on Canadian Labour Force Participation in the 1990s (Special Issue of Canadian Business Economics, Volume 7, Number 2, May 1999), in: Andrew Sharpe & Louis Grignon (ed.),A Symposium on Canadian Labour Force Participation in the 1990s (Special Issue of Canadian Business Economics, Volume 7, Number 2, May 1999), pages 57-70, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiujian Peng & Yinhua Mai, 2013. "Population Ageing, Retirement Age Extension and Economic Growth in China A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-237, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Peng, Xiujian & Mai, Yinhua, 2013. "The Economic Implication of Retirement Age Extension in China - A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 332402, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Xiujian Peng & Dietrich Fausten, 2006. "Population Ageing And Labour Supply Prospects In China From 2005 To 2050," Monash Economics Working Papers 16/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    4. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2006. "Why Are Women Working So Much More in Canada? An International Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2006/092, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brodeur, Abel & Connolly, Marie, 2013. "Do higher child care subsidies improve parental well-being? Evidence from Quebec's family policies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Michèle V. K. Belot & Timothy J. Hatton, 2012. "Immigrant Selection in the OECD," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1105-1128, December.
    3. Timothy Hatton, 2005. "Explaining trends in UK immigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 719-740, November.
    4. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Barbara Liberda, 2014. "Age-productivity patterns in talent occupations for men and women: a decomposition," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 401-414, September.
    5. Kadija Charni, 2016. "Is it Better to Work When We Are Older? An Empirical Comparison Between France and Great Britain," AMSE Working Papers 1640, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Michał Burzyński & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2018. "The Changing Structure of Immigration to the OECD: What Welfare Effects on Member Countries?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 564-601, September.
    7. David E. Wildasin, 2003. "Fiscal Policy, Human Capital, and Canada-US Labor Market Integration," Public Economics 0309006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Chen, Hung-Ju & Fang, I-Hsiang, 2013. "Migration, social security, and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 386-399.
    9. Dequiedt, Vianney & Zenou, Yves, 2013. "International migration, imperfect information, and brain drain," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 62-78.
    10. Andrew Clarke & Ana Ferrer & Mikal Skuterud, 2019. "A Comparative Analysis of the Labor Market Performance of University-Educated Immigrants in Australia, Canada, and the United States: Does Policy Matter?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 443-490.
    11. Duval Hernández, Robert & Orraca Romano, Pedro, 2009. "A Cohort Analysis of Labor Participation in Mexico, 1987-2009," IZA Discussion Papers 4371, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Heather Antecol & Peter Kuhn & Stephen J. Trejo, 2006. "Assimilation via Prices or Quantities?: Sources of Immigrant Earnings Growth in Australia, Canada, and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(4).
    13. G. Bellettini & C. Berti Ceroni, 2003. "Opening the borders: immigration policy, migrants' selection and human capital accumulation," Working Papers 473, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    14. Ahmed, Nina, 2005. "Intergenerational Impact of Immigrants' Selection and Assimilation on Health Outcomes of Children," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2005247e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    15. Antecol, Heather & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Trejo, Stephen, 2002. "Human Capital and Earnings of Female Immigrants to Australia, Canada, and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 575, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Antecol, Heather & Kuhn, Peter J. & Trejo, Stephen, 2003. "Assimilation via Prices or Quantities? Labor Market Institutions and Immigrant Earnings Growth in Australia, Canada, and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 802, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Irena Kogan, 2015. "The role of immigration policies for immigrants’ selection and economic success," ImPRovE Working Papers 15/05, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    18. Rashid, Saman, 2004. "Immigrants' Income and Family Migration," Umeå Economic Studies 625, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    19. Daniel Parent & Christopher Worswick, 2004. "Immigrant Labour Market Performance and Skilled Immigrant Selection: The International Experience," CIRANO Project Reports 2004rp-07, CIRANO.
    20. Hou, Feng & Picot, Garnett, 2003. "The Rise in Low-income Rates Among Immigrants in Canada," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2003198e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Canada; Labour Force Participation; Labor Force Participation; Participation Rate; Labour Force Participation Rate; Labor Force Participation Rate; Age Structure; Age; Sex; Gender; Aging; Ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sls:lfpcbe:04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CSLS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cslssca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.