International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence
In: Housing and the Financial Crisis
AbstractThe last fifteen years have been marked by a dramatic boom-bust cycle in real estate prices, accompanied by economically large fluctuations in international capital flows. We argue that changes in international capital flows played, at most, a small role in driving house price movements in this episode and that, instead, the key causal factor was a financial market liberalization and its subsequent reversal. Using observations on credit standards, capital flows, and interest rates, we find that a bank survey measure of credit supply, by itself, explains 53 percent of the quarterly variation in house price growth in the U.S. over the period 1992-2010, while it explains 66 percent over the period since 2000. By contrast, once we control for credit supply, various measures of capital flows, real interest rates, and aggregate activityâcollectivelyâadd less than 5% to the fraction of variation explained for these same movements in home values. Credit supply retains its strong marginal explanatory power for house price movements over the period 2002-2010 in a panel of international data, while capital flows have no explanatory power.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
This chapter was published in:
This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 12626.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Acharya, Viral V & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2012.
"Securitization Without Risk Transfer,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gete, Pedro, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," MPRA Paper 20957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Feb 2010.
- David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2010.
"Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis,"
NBER Working Papers
15759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 354-374, 05.
- Laibson, David I. & Mollerstrom, Johanna Britta, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," Scholarly Articles 4686766, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012.
"House Price Booms and the Current Account,"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77 - 122.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," CEP Discussion Papers dp1064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Joseph Nichols & Anthony Pennington-Cross & Anthony Yezer, 2004. "Borrower Self-Selection, Underwriting Costs, and Subprime Mortgage Credit Supply," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 197-219, November.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008.
"Current account patterns and national real estate markets,"
Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt1rh4s127, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
- Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "Current Account Patterns and National Real Estate Markets," NBER Working Papers 13921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrea Ferrero, 2011. "House Prices Booms and Current Account Deficits," 2011 Meeting Papers 1386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Gadi Barlevy & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Mortgage choices and housing speculation," Working Paper Series WP-2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Jack Favilukis, 2010.
"The Macroeconomic E¤ects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk-Sharing in General Equilibrium,"
2010 Meeting Papers
733, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk-Sharing in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 15988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jean Imbs & Giovanni Favara, 2011.
"Credit Supply and the Price of Housing,"
2011 Meeting Papers
1342, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2012. "Mortgage Financing in the Housing Boom and Bust," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 143-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012.
"Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?,"
in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Angela Maddaloni, 2011.
"Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
- Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "Bank risk-taking, securitization, supervision and low interest rates: Evidence from the euro area and the U.S. lending standards," Working Paper Series 1248, European Central Bank.
- Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "The Research Agenda: Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh on Housing and the Macroeconomy," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), April.
- Peter Tillmann, 2012. "Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: Evidence from Emerging Asia," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Carolina Arteaga & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012.
"Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
010077, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Geerolf, François & Grjebine, Thomas, 2013. "House Prices Drive Current Accounts: Evidence from Property Tax Variations," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1315, CEPREMAP.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.