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Macro-Finance Interactions in the US: A Global Perspective

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  • Fabio C. Bagliano
  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

The paper aims at understanding the main channels of macro-finance interaction that have featured in the US recent “Great Recession” episode. Domestic interactions of macro and financial shocks are investigated within a global framework, allowing for spillover effects of the US crisis to other OECD countries, as well as to major emerging economies, and controlling for further feedback effects on the US economy. A total of 50 countries is investigated by means of a large-scale open economy macroeconometric model, set in the factor vector autoregressive (F-VAR) framework, over the period 1980:1-2009:1. The overall picture appears to be consistent with a boom-bust credit cycle mechanism, whereby financial factors are the triggering force of the downturn in real activity and worsened economic conditions feed back to asset prices, starting a cumulative process.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Morten Balling & David T. Llewellyn & Athanasios Orphanides & Luc Coene & Andy Haldane & Richard Davies & Dramane Coulibaly & Hubert Kempf & Nicola Brink & Michael Kock & Amund Holmsen & Øistein Røi, 2012. "New Paradigms in Monetary Theory and Policy?," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2012/1 edited by Morten Balling & David T. Llewellyn.
    This item is provided by SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum in its series Chapters in SUERF Studies with number 68-9.

    Handle: RePEc:erf:erfssc:68-9

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," Working papers 17, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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      • Down Holland & Ray Borrell & Aurélie Delonnoy & Totiono Fic & Ian Hurst & Ali Orozgoni & Pawel Paluchowski & Rachel Whitworth, 2011. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 216(1), pages F10-F17, April.
    5. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," ICER Working Papers 41-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
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    16. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 9-43 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "Permanent and transitory dynamics in house prices and consumption: some implications for the real effects of the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 151-170.
    18. Robert S. Chirinko & Leo de Haan & Elmer Sterken, 2008. "Asset Price Shocks, Real Expenditures, and Financial Structure: A Multi-Country Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2342, CESifo Group Munich.
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