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Economic Convergence in South-Eastern Europe: Will the Financial Sector deliver?

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  • Max Watson
  • Valerie Herzberg
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    Abstract

    The pace of financial development in south-eastern Europe has accelerated. In a setting of low inflation and robust growth, domestic credit and cross-border flows are expanding rapidly. This can strengthen sustainable real convergence by supporting productivity gains – thus underpinning higher incomes, enhanced competitiveness and a smooth servicing of external liabilities. But such an outcome is not guaranteed. It depends on a favourable investment climate. Otherwise, an expansion of private consumption and residential investment may not be matched by growth in the traded goods sector and in other productive activities. EU Accession – with its potential for trade and investment integration, and an acquis-based strengthening of institutions – improves the chances of good outcomes. But deep structural reforms, as well as sound fiscal and prudential policies, are essential to foster sustainable growth and to avoid financial stress.

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    This chapter was published in:

  • Max Watson & Valerie Herzberg, 2007. "Economic Convergence in South-Eastern Europe: Will the Financial Sector deliver?," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2007/2 edited by Morten Balling.
    This item is provided by SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum in its series Chapters in SUERF Studies with number 45-1.

    Handle: RePEc:erf:erfssc:45-1

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    Cited by:
    1. Andreas Hoffmann, 2010. "An Overinvestment Cycle In Central And Eastern Europe?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 711-734, November.
    2. Perisa Ivanovic & Zoran Grubisic & Nikola Fabris, 2011. "Policies Aa a Result of Global Credit Boom in SEE Countries," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    3. Zoran Grubisic & Perisa Ivanovic, 2012. "Influence of different monetary regimes on financial stability in see countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(1), pages 91-106.
    4. Zoran Grubisic & Perisa Ivanovic & Nikola Fabris, 2011. "Financial System Integration of Serbia in the European Financial System," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.

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