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Populists at the Polls: Economic Factors in the US Presidential Election of 1896

In: Research in Economic History

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Michael Haines
  • Matthew Jaremski
  • David Leblang

Abstract

The 1896 presidential election between William Jennings Bryan and William McKinley has new salience in the wake of the 2016 presidential contest. We provide the first systematic analysis of presidential voting in 1896, combining county-level returns with economic, financial, and demographic data. We show that Bryan did well where interest rates were high, railroad penetration was low, and crop prices had declined. We show that further declines in crop prices or increases in interest rates would have been enough to tip the Electoral College in Bryan’s favor. But to change the outcome, the additional changes would have had to be large.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen & Michael Haines & Matthew Jaremski & David Leblang, 2019. "Populists at the Polls: Economic Factors in the US Presidential Election of 1896," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, volume 35, pages 91-131, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:rehizz:s0363-326820190000035006
    DOI: 10.1108/S0363-326820190000035006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Populists; presidential election of 1896; political economy; interest rates; railways; counterfactuals; N11; D72;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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