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The financial crisis and the changing dynamics of the yield curve

In: Threat of fiscal dominance?

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  • Morten L Bech

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Yvan Lengwiler

    (University of Basel)

Abstract

We present evidence on the changing dynamics of the yield curve from 1998 to 2011. We identify four different phases. As expected, the financial crisis represents a period of elevated yield volatility, but it can be split into two distinct periods. The split occurs when the Federal Reserve reached the zero lower bound. This bound suppressed volatility in the short end of the yield curve while increasing volatility in the long end — despite lower overall volatility in financial markets. In line with previous studies, we find that announcements with regard to the Federal Reserve’s large scale asset purchases reduce longer term yields. We also quantify the effect of widely observed economic news, such as the non-farm payrolls and other items, on the yield curve.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Bank for International Settlements, 2012. "Threat of fiscal dominance?," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65, May.
    This item is provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Papers chapters with number 65-15.

    Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:65-15

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    1. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January.
    2. Bruce M. Brown, 1999. "Beta-Bernstein Smoothing for Regression Curves with Compact Support," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics & Finnish Statistical Society & Norwegian Statistical Association & Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 26(1), pages 47-59.
    3. Yvan Lengwiler & Carlos Lenz, 2008. "Intelligible Factors for the Yield Curve," Working Papers 2008-02, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    5. Dennis Kristensen, 2007. "Nonparametric Filtering of the Realised Spot Volatility: A Kernel-based Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2007-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    6. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    7. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
    8. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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