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Monetary policy regimes and macroeconomic outcomes: Hong Kong and Singapore

In: Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation

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  • Stefan Gerlach

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Petra Gerlach-Kristen

    (Swiss National Bank)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic behaviour and the monetary policy regime in Hong Kong and Singapore, using data for 1984-2004. We estimate an econometric model, comprising a Phillips curve, an IS curve and an equation for changes in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), which, in the case of Singapore, can be interpreted as a policy reaction function. The parameter estimates differ in two regards: the NEER responds to inflation in Singapore but not in Hong Kong, and the autoregressive parameter for the output gap in Singapore is smaller than in Hong Kong. Overall, the variability of inflation has been lower in Singapore, but the volatility of real economic activity has been similar in the two economies.
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Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Gerlach & Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2006. "Monetary policy regimes and macroeconomic outcomes: Hong Kong and Singapore," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 40-64, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:31-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
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    6. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
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    10. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies: Issues and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 205-245, Springer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence in Asia," CEPR Discussion Papers 8046, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Amit Ghosh & Ramkishen Rajan, 2009. "What is the extent of exchange rate pass-through in Singapore? Has it changed over time?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 61-72.
    3. Parrado, Eric, 2023. "An Exchange Rate Policy Rule," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13347, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2007. "Is Sterilized Intervention Effective? New International Evidence," Working Papers 142007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael & Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2011. "Stock market wealth effects in an estimated DSGE model for Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 316-334, January.
    6. Seedwell Hove & Albert Touna Mama & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2016. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 81-108, March.
    7. Bennett T. McCallum, 2007. "Monetary Policy in East Asia: The Case of Singapore," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 13-28, December.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 360-373.
    9. Chee-Heong Quah, 2012. "Can Japan or China replace the US as the monetary anchor for Hong Kong and Macau?," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 335-354, July.
    10. Rimgailaite, Ramune, 2012. "Exchange rate modelling for Lithuania and Switzerland," MPRA Paper 43451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael & Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2011. "Stock market wealth effects in an estimated DSGE model for Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 316-334, January.
    12. Quah, Chee-Heong & Ho, Yew-Joe, 2020. "Economic Feasibility of Malaysia and Singapore-Brunei Monetary Reunion: A Scrutiny during Major Financial Crises," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 27(1).
    13. Gerlach, Stefan, 2009. "The risk of deflation," IMFS Working Paper Series 21, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bennett T. McCallum, 2014. "Monetary Policy in a Very Open Economy: Some Major Analytical Issues," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 27-60, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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