IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/f/c/pwe296.html
   My authors  Follow this author

Min Wei

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables

Working papers

  1. J. David López-Salido & Gerardo Sanz-Maldonado & Carly Schippits & Min Wei, 2020. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: The Role of Inflation Expectations," FEDS Notes 2020-06-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2020. "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

  2. Kyungmin Kim & Thomas Laubach & Min Wei, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Stefański, Maciej, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects and transmission channels of quantitative easing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Kawamoto, Takuji & Nakazawa, Takashi & Kishaba, Yui & Matsumura, Kohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2023. "Estimating the macroeconomic effects of Japan’s expansionary monetary policy under Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing during 2013–2020," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 208-224.
    4. Sergio Clavijo, 2020. "Política Monetaria Expansiva: Efectos sobre márgenes, tasas de interés y subsidios crediticios," Documentos CEDE 18504, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    5. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    6. Sergio Clavijo, 2021. "Transmisión Crediticia, Liquidez y Capital Bancario en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19156, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    7. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    8. Lhuissier Stéphane & Nguyen Benoît, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.

  3. Jacob Bochner & Min Wei & Jie Yang, 2020. "What Drove Recent Trends in Corporate Bonds and Loans Usage?," FEDS Notes 2020-10-23-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Miroslav Gabrovski & Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Ioannis Kospentaris & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The real effects of financial disruptions in a monetary economy," Working Papers 202302, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

  4. Don H. Kim & Cait Walsh & Min Wei, 2019. "Tips from TIPS: Update and Discussions," FEDS Notes 2019-05-21-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Price Stability, and Equilibrium Bond Yields: Success and Consequences : a speech at the High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, And Volatility, co-sponsored by the Bank fo," Speech 1102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel, 2021. "Expectation spillovers and the return of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    6. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Soper, Carolyne, 2019. "Market risk and market-implied inflation expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

  5. Brian Bonis & Jane E. Ihrig & Min Wei, 2017. "Projected Evolution of the SOMA Portfolio and the 10-Year Treasury Term Premium Effect," FEDS Notes 2017-09-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. John C. Williams, 2017. "Interest Rates and the \\"New Normal\\"," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. John C. Williams, 2017. "Interest Rates and the “New Normal”," Speech 182, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Luchelle Soobyah & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Term premium and rate expectation estimates from the South African yield curve," Working Papers 9998, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Christopher J. Neely, 2019. "What to Expect from Quantitative Tightening," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 8, April.

  6. Brian Bonis & Jane E. Ihrig & Min Wei, 2017. "The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Securities Holdings on Longer-Term Interest Rates," FEDS Notes 2017-04-20-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Christian Pfister, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policies: A Stock-Taking Exercise," Working Papers hal-04159708, HAL.
    2. Martin Motl, 2019. "The inverted yield curve in the USA: How much time is left until a recession?," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - May 2019, pages 13-19, Czech National Bank.
    3. Eterovic, Dalibor & Sweet, Cassandra & Eterovic, Nicolas, 2022. "Asymmetric spillovers in emerging market monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 650-662.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Philippines: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/335, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Edward Gamber & John Seliski, 2019. "The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01," Working Papers 55018, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Sangyong Joo & Daehwan Kim & Jeffrey Nilsen, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in Korea: A Decomposition Analysis," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 327-366.
    7. Willem THORBECKE, 2020. "Non-traditional Monetary Policy and the Future of the Financial Industries," Discussion papers 20025, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

  7. Thomas B. King & Min Wei, 2016. "Macroeconomic Sources of Recent Interest Rate Fluctuations," FEDS Notes 2016-06-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Dominic Anene & Stefania D'Amico, 2017. "A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series WP-2017-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

  8. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2014. "Flights to Safety," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Park, Sangjin & Yang, Jae-Suk, 2021. "Relationships between capital flow and economic growth: A network analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Bekaert, Geert & De Santis, Roberto A., 2021. "Risk and return in international corporate bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Bethke, Sebastian & Kempf, Alexander & Trapp, Monika, 2014. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," CFR Working Papers 13-06 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2022. "The role of precious metals in portfolio diversification during the Covid19 pandemic: A wavelet-based quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Sarwar, Ghulam, 2017. "Examining the flight-to-safety with the implied volatilities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 118-124.
    6. Dungey, Mardi & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Matei, Marius & Yang, Xiye, 2018. "Testing for mutually exciting jumps and financial flights in high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 18-44.
    7. Abuzayed, Bana & Bouri, Elie & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Jalkh, Naji, 2021. "Systemic risk spillover across global and country stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    8. Perras, Patrizia & Wagner, Niklas, 2020. "Pricing equity-bond covariance risk: Between flight-to-quality and fear-of-missing-out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2020. "The South African – United States Sovereign Bond Spread and its Association with Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 830, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Hoyem, Kenton & Hu, Wei-Yin & Ravina, Enrichetta, 2017. "Who is internationally diversified? Evidence from the 401(k) plans of 296 firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 86-112.
    11. Patrice Baubeau & Eric Monnet & Angelo Riva & Stefano Ungaro, 2021. "Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(1), pages 223-250, February.
    12. Soenen, Nicolas & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2022. "ECB monetary policy and bank default risk☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. H. Dewachter & G. de Walque & M. Emiris & P. Ilbas & J. Mitchell & R. Wouters, 2012. "Endogenous financial risk : The seventh international conference of the NBB," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 135-146, December.
    14. Bodilsen, Simon & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Grønborg, Niels S., 2021. "Asset pricing and FOMC press conferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Bo Becker & Efraim Benmelech, 2021. "The Resilience of the U.S. Corporate Bond Market During Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 28868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ghysels, Eric & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Regime switches in the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 118-138.
    17. Zhiguo He & Stefan Nagel & Zhaogang Song, 2020. "Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers 2020-79, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    18. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Pyun, Ju Hyun & An, Jiyoun, 2016. "Capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 172-193.
    20. Elie Bouri & David Roubaud & Rania Jammazi & Ata Assaf, 2017. "Uncovering frequency domain causality between gold and the stock markets of China and India: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Post-Print hal-02000698, HAL.
    21. Chuliá, Helena & Koser, Christoph & Uribe, Jorge M., 2021. "Analyzing the Nonlinear Pricing of Liquidity Risk according to the Market State," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    22. Bethke, Sebastian & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Kempf, Alexander, 2014. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," CFR Working Papers 13-06 [rev.2], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    23. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2020. "Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    24. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "The Bitcoin price formation: Beyond the fundamental sources," Working Papers hal-01548710, HAL.
    25. Li, Zhiyong & Wan, Yifan & Wang, Tianyi & Yu, Mei, 2023. "Factor-timing in the Chinese factor zoo: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    26. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2021. "Stress Spillovers among Financial Markets: Evidence from Spain," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, November.
    28. Campani, Carlos Heitor & Garcia, René & Lewin, Marcelo, 2021. "Optimal portfolio strategies in the presence of regimes in asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    29. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ali, Azwadi, 2017. "Dependence of Stock Markets with Gold and Bonds under Bullish and Bearish Market States," MPRA Paper 78595, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Apr 2017.
    30. Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Erik Vogt, 2019. "Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1931-1973, August.
    31. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    32. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    33. Galvani, Valentina, 2021. "The value premium during flights," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    34. Leonie Bräuer & Harald Hau, 2022. "Can Time-Varying Currency Risk Hedging Explain Exchange Rates?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10065, CESifo.
    35. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2021. "Safe haven flows, natural interest rates and secular stagnation—Empirical evidence for Euro area countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1164-1190.
    36. Pham, Linh & Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2021. "Asymmetric tail dependence between green bonds and other asset classes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    37. Celina Löwen & Bilal Kchouri & Thorsten Lehnert, 2021. "Is this time really different? Flight-to-safety and the COVID-19 crisis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, May.
    38. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    39. Jia, Pengfei, 2021. "Trust Shocks, Financial Crises, and Money," MPRA Paper 106343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Stracca, Livio & Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2013. "Foreign investors and risk shocks: seeking a safe haven or running for the exit?," Working Paper Series 1609, European Central Bank.
    41. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Guérin, Pierre, 2013. "Characterizing very high uncertainty episodes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 239-243.
    42. Sifat, Imtiaz & Ghafoor, Abdul & Ah Mand, Abdollah, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and speculation in energy, precious metals, and agricultural futures," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    43. Tim A Kroencke & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2015. "Global Asset Allocation Shifts," BIS Working Papers 497, Bank for International Settlements.
    44. Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Widijanto, Daniel, 2017. "Realized (co)variances of eurozone sovereign yields during the crisis: The impact of news and the Securities Markets Programme," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-31.
    45. Choudhry, Taufiq & Hassan, Syed S. & Shabi, Sarosh, 2015. "Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-256.
    46. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael, 2014. "Switching Risk Off: FX Correlations and Risk Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 10214, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Jiang, Hao & Li, Yi & Sun, Zheng & Wang, Ashley, 2022. "Does mutual fund illiquidity introduce fragility into asset prices? Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 277-302.
    48. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "Ether: Bitcoin's competitor or ally?," Papers 1707.07977, arXiv.org.
    49. Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    50. Papadamou, Stephanos & Fassas, Athanasios P. & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2021. "Flight-to-quality between global stock and bond markets in the COVID era," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    51. Pinchetti, Marco & Szczepaniak, Andrzej, 2021. "Global spillovers of the Fed information effect," Bank of England working papers 952, Bank of England.
    52. Hang Zhang & Evangelos Giouvris, 2022. "Measures of Volatility, Crises, Sentiment and the Role of U.S. ‘Fear’ Index (VIX) on Herding in BRICS (2007–2021)," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-42, March.
    53. Klaus, Jürgen & Koser, Christoph, 2021. "Measuring Trump: The Volfefe Index and its impact on European financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    54. Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2020. "ECB Monetary Policy and Bank Default Risk," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 20/997, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    55. Niu, Zilong, 2020. "Essays in empirical asset pricing and international finance," Other publications TiSEM 986cefd5-4d2b-4d5f-be7a-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    56. Shai Bernstein & Richard R. Townsend & Ting Xu, 2020. "Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups," NBER Working Papers 27907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Nawazish Mirza & Bushra Naqvi & Birjees Rahat, 2020. "Covid-19 and asset management in EU: a preliminary assessment of performance and investment styles," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 281-291, July.
    58. Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Qian, Zhaowen & Verschoor, Willem & Zwinkels, Remco, 2016. "Time-varying importance of country and industry factors in European corporate bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 429-448.
    59. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2021. "Stocks versus bonds for the long run when a riskless asset is available," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    60. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Can commodity returns forecast Canadian sector stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 172-188.
    62. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
    63. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2016. "What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 103-118.
    64. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gregory Phelan, 2022. "Fragility of Safe Asset Markets," Staff Reports 1026, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    65. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Jesper Hanson & Frank De Jong, 2018. "Cross‐Border Auction Cycle Effects of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1401-1440, October.
    66. Jian Luo & Xiaoxia Ye & May Hu, 2016. "Counter-Credit-Risk Yield Spreads: A Puzzle in China's Corporate Bond Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 203-241, June.
    67. Chan Joshua C.C. & Fry-McKibbin Renée A. & Hsiao Cody Yu-Ling, 2019. "A regime switching skew-normal model of contagion," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-24, February.
    68. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2020. "Determinants of the bid-to-cover ratio in Eurozone sovereign debt auctions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 96-120.
    69. Stracca, Livio, 2013. "The global effects of the euro debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1573, European Central Bank.
    70. Rob Hayward & Jens Hölscher, 2017. "The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(4), pages 472-497, December.
    71. Al Rababa’a, Abdel Razzaq & Alomari, Mohammad & McMillan, David, 2021. "Multiscale stock-bond correlation: Implications for risk management," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    72. Juan Ángel García & Ricardo Gimeno, 2014. "Flight-to-liquidity flows in the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Working Papers 1429, Banco de España.
    73. Li, Yulin & Wald, John K. & Wang, Zijun, 2020. "Sovereign bonds, coskewness, and monetary policy regimes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    74. Turtle, H.J. & Wang, Kainan, 2016. "The benefits of improved covariance estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 233-246.

  9. Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee & Canlin Li & Brett Schulte & Min Wei, 2012. "Expectations about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the term structure of interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Orphanides, 2021. "The Power of Central Bank Balance Sheets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 39, pages 35-54, November.
    2. Bailey, Andrew & Bridges, Jonathan & Harrison, Richard & Jones, Josh & Mankodi, Aakash, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England working papers 899, Bank of England.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Hofmann, Boris & Lombardi, Marco & Mojon, Benoit, 2021. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a low interest rate world," CEPR Discussion Papers 16411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Smith, A. Lee & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2023. "The financial market effects of unwinding the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Adrien Alvero & Andreas M. Fischer, 2016. "Exchange rate floor and central bank balance sheets: Simple spillover tests of the Swiss franc," Working Papers 16.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    6. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 425-460, October.
    7. Whelan, Karl, 2022. "The Past, Present and Future of Euro Area Monetary-Fiscal Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 17021, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Nocera, A. & Pesaran, M. H., 2022. "Causal effects of the Fed's large-scale asset purchases on firms' capital structure," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2224, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Inoue, Tomoo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "International spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies of major central banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva & Ihrig, Jane & Klee, Elizabeth, 2015. "Analyzing Federal Reserve asset purchases: From whom does the Fed buy?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 230-244.
    11. Fabian Eser & Wolfgang Lemke & Ken Nyholm & Sören Radde & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2023. "Tracing the Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program on the Yield Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 359-422, August.
    12. Richard Finlay & Dmitry Titkov & Michelle Xiang, 2022. "The Yield and Market Function Effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bond Purchases," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Alexander D. Gromov, 2017. "The Efficiency of Russian Higher Education Institutions and its Determinants," HSE Working papers WP BRP 40/EDU/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    14. Lwazi Senzo Ntshangase & Sheunesu Zhou & Irrshad Kaseeram, 2023. "The Spillover Effects of US Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation and Non-Inflation Targeting Emerging Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.
    15. Naoko Hara & Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2019. "The Effects of Asset Purchases and Normalization of US Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    16. Froemel, Maren & Joyce, Michael & Kaminska, Iryna, 2022. "The local supply channel of QE: evidence from the Bank of England’s gilt purchases," Bank of England working papers 980, Bank of England.
    17. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    18. Richard Finlay & Dmitry Titkov & Michelle Xiang, 2023. "The Yield and Market Function Effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bond Purchases," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 359-384, September.
    19. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    20. Huseyin Ozturk, 2020. "The shape of sovereign yield curve in an emerging economy: Do macroeconomic or external factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 83-112, February.
    21. Andrea Landi, Alex Sclip, Valeria Venturelli, 2019. "The effect of the Fed zero-lower bound announcementon bank profitability and diversification," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0079, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".

  10. Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2012. "Term structure modelling with supply factors and the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase programs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Ippolito, Filippo & Ozdagli, Ali K. & Perez-Orive, Ander, 2018. "The transmission of monetary policy through bank lending: The floating rate channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-71.
    2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Seth Carpenter & Jane Ihrig & Elizabeth Klee & Daniel Quinn & Alexander Boote, 2015. "The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Earnings: A Primer and Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 237-283, March.
    4. Ethan Struby & Michael F. Connolly, 2022. "Shadow Rate Models and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-03, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides, 2021. "The Power of Central Bank Balance Sheets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 39, pages 35-54, November.
    6. Kyungmin Kim & Thomas Laubach & Min Wei, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    9. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Orphanides, Athanasios & Hofmann, Boris & Lombardi, Marco & Mojon, Benoit, 2021. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a low interest rate world," CEPR Discussion Papers 16411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Bua, Giovanna & Dunne, Peter G. & Sorbo, Jacopo, 2019. "Money Market Funds and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Belke, Angar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2017. "The effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 335-349.
    13. Paul Glasserman & Amit Sirohi & Allen Zhang, 2017. "The effect of “regular and predictable” issuance on Treasury bill financing," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-1, pages 43-56.
    14. Massimo Guidolin & Alexei G. Orlov & Manuela Pedio, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Corporate Bonds under Regime Shifts," Working Papers 562, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    15. Tobias S. Blattner & Michael A. S. Joyce, 2020. "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1361-1395, September.
    16. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2016. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper Series WP16-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    17. Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee & Canlin Li & Brett Schulte & Min Wei, 2012. "Expectations about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the term structure of interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
    19. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 26002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Farmer, Roger, 2012. "Qualitative Easing: How it Works and Why it Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 9153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Simon Gilchrist & Egon ZakrajŠEk, 2013. "The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs on Corporate Credit Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 29-57, December.
    23. Thomas B. King, 2013. "A Portfolio-Balance Approach to the Nominal Term Structure," Working Paper Series WP-2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    24. Meixing Dai & Frédéric Dufourt & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Large Scale Asset Purchases with Segmented Mortgage and Corporate Loan Markets," Working Papers halshs-00842279, HAL.
    25. Bluford H. Putnam, 2013. "Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 1-7, January.
    26. Saroj Bhattarai & Christopher J. Neely, 2016. "An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2016-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 May 2020.
    27. Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko & Ms. Elena Loukoianova, 2015. "The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures by the Systemic Four on Global Liquidity and Monetary Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2015/287, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Plazzi, Alberto, 2020. "Does monetary policy impact international market co-movements?," SAFE Working Paper Series 276, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    29. Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2021. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    30. Nao Sudo & Masaki Tanaka, 2021. "Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1719-1755, October.
    31. Roberto A. De Santis & Fédéric Holm‐Hadulla, 2020. "Flow Effects of Central Bank Asset Purchases on Sovereign Bond Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1467-1491, September.
    32. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    33. Ramaprasad Bhar & Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2015. "The impact of large-scale asset purchases on the S&P 500 index, long-term interest rates and unemployment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(55), pages 6010-6018, November.
    34. Franck Martin & Jiangxingyun Zhang, 2017. "Impact of QE on European sovereign bond market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2017-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    35. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2015. "On the (De)Stabilizing Effect of Public Debt in a Ramsey Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Post-Print hal-01457303, HAL.
    36. Russell Barnett & Konrad Zmitrowicz, 2018. "Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium," Discussion Papers 18-7, Bank of Canada.
    37. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2018. "US Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Pelizzon, Loriana & Sottocornola, Matteo, 2018. "The impact of monetary policy iInterventions on the insurance industry," SAFE Working Paper Series 204, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    39. Williams, John C., 2013. "A defense of moderation in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 137-150.
    40. Motto, Roberto & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo, 2015. "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1864, European Central Bank.
    41. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," IMES Discussion Paper Series 15-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    42. Putnam, Bluford H., 2013. "Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-7.
    43. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2014. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    44. Gilchrist, Simon & López-Salido, J David & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 9971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2022. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Working Papers 301, Bank of Greece.
    46. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2016. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Working Paper Series 324, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    47. Laséen, Stefan, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases: Insights from quantitative easing auctions of government bonds," Working Paper Series 419, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    48. Andras Lengyel & Massimo Giuliodoril, 2020. "Demand shocks for public debt in the Eurozone," Working Papers 674, DNB.
    49. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    50. Lutz, Chandler, 2015. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 89-105.
    51. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Price Stability, and Equilibrium Bond Yields: Success and Consequences : a speech at the High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, And Volatility, co-sponsored by the Bank fo," Speech 1102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    52. Hayashi, Fumio, 2018. "Computing equilibrium bond prices in the Vayanos-Vila model," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 181-195.
    53. De Santis, Roberto A. & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric, 2017. "Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 2052, European Central Bank.
    54. Bank for International Settlements, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases in response to the Covid-19 crisis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 68, december.
    55. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2020. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    56. Fabian Eser & Wolfgang Lemke & Ken Nyholm & Sören Radde & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2023. "Tracing the Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program on the Yield Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 359-422, August.
    57. Zhaogang Song & Haoxiang Zhu, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Richard Finlay & Dmitry Titkov & Michelle Xiang, 2022. "The Yield and Market Function Effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bond Purchases," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    59. Caio Almeida & Axel Simonsen & José Valentim Vicente, 2012. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Working Papers Series 288, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    60. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2013. "Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    61. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2018. "Quantitative easing and sovereign bond yields: a global perspective," Working Papers 253, Bank of Greece.
    62. P. Andrade & C. Cahn & H. Fraisse & J-S. Mésonnier, 2015. "Can the Provision of Long-Term Liquidity Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem's LTROs," Working papers 540, Banque de France.
    63. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    64. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D'Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    65. Ashima Goyal, 2019. "Price Discovery in Indian Government Securities Market, Monetary Management and the Cost of Government Borrowing," Working Papers id:13027, eSocialSciences.
    66. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy : a speech at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California, January 19, 2017," Speech 935, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    67. Jeff W. Huther & Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2017. "The Federal Reserve's Portfolio and its Effect on Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    68. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2013. "The ins and outs of LSAPs," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    69. Juan Carlos Medina Guirado, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and credit market activity," Estudios Regionales en Economía, Población y Desarrollo. Cuadernos de Trabajo de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez. 57, Cuerpo Académico 41 de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, revised 04 Jan 2020.
    70. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    71. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Risk-Taking Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Bank Lending," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-24, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Apr 2019.
    72. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    73. Hess T. Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2019. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    74. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    75. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    76. James Costain & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2022. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Working Papers 2223, Banco de España.
    77. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/066, International Monetary Fund.
    78. Richard Finlay & Dmitry Titkov & Michelle Xiang, 2023. "The Yield and Market Function Effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bond Purchases," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 359-384, September.
    79. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    80. Katharina Plessen-Mátyás & Christoph Kaufmann & Julian von Landesberger, 2023. "Funding Behavior of Debt Management Offices and the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Program," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(4), pages 339-399, October.
    81. Michael T. Kiley, 2013. "Monetary policy statements, Treasury yields, and private yields: before and after the zero lower bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    82. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    83. Mark A. Carlson & Burcu Duygan-Bump, 2018. "“Unconventional” Monetary Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy : A Perspective from the U.S. in the 1920s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    84. Jarrow, Robert A., 2013. "The zero-lower bound on interest rates: Myth or reality?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 151-156.
    85. Junko Koeda, 2015. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns in Zero-Lower Bound and Normal Environments: Evidence from Japan," Working Papers 1506, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    86. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    87. Huseyin Ozturk, 2020. "The shape of sovereign yield curve in an emerging economy: Do macroeconomic or external factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 83-112, February.
    88. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    89. Emily Greenwald & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Josh Younger, 2023. "Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Papers 2315, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    90. James Morley, 2016. "Macro-Finance Linkages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 698-711, September.
    91. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2020. "Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    92. Giuseppe Grande & Adriana Grasso & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s asset purchases at the lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 541, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    93. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    94. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2018. "Quantitative easing auctions of Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 103-124.
    95. Hanson, Samuel G., 2014. "Mortgage convexity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 270-299.
    96. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    97. Scott Mixon & Tugkan Tuzun, 2018. "Price Pressure and Price Discovery in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    98. Stanley Fischer, 2015. "Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet : a speech at the 2015 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, New York, February 2," Speech 837, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    99. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2017. "The impact of EMU on bond yield convergence: Evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 206-222.
    100. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    101. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    102. Plessen-Mátyás, Katharina & Kaufmann, Christoph & von Landesberger, Julian, 2021. "Funding behaviour of debt management offices and the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Working Paper Series 2552, European Central Bank.
    103. Han Chen & James A. Clouse & Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2014. "The Federal Reserve's Tools for Policy Normalization in a Preferred Habitat Model of Financial Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    104. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Response of Sovereign Bond Yields to U.S. Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 8, pages 257-283, Central Bank of Chile.
    105. Hess Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2020. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Current Policy Toolkit," CARF F-Series CARF-F-483, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

  11. Athanasios Orphanides & Min Wei, 2010. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2013. "Is the UK triple-A?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9378, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Laura Coroneo & Sergio Pastorello, 2017. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Discussion Papers 17/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2013. "Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: a model-based fiscal analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9665, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Dick Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 693-712, August.
    6. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
    7. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2015. "What Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Do?," Working Paper Series WP-2015-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    9. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    10. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    11. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2015. "The role of term structure in an estimated DSGE model with learning," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    12. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    13. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna, 2018. "Yield curve interactions with the macroeconomic factors during global financial crisis among Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-192.
    14. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2021. "An Estimated Dsge Model With Learning Based On Term Structure Information," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1635-1665, October.
    15. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2012. "Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating," CEPR Discussion Papers 9150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Zhongliang Tuo, 2013. "Hedging Against the Interest-rate Risk by Measuring the Yield-curve Movement," Papers 1312.6841, arXiv.org.
    19. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    20. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
    21. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    22. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Hang Thi Thu Vu, 2021. "The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
    23. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.

  12. Min Wei & Jonathan H. Wright, 2009. "Confidence intervals for long-horizon predictive regressions via reverse regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.
    2. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
    3. Heaton, Chris, 2015. "Testing for multiple-period predictability between serially dependent time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 587-597.

  13. Stefania D'Amico & Don H Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," BIS Working Papers 248, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & María Dolores Gadea & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2017. ""Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Working Papers REM 2017/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    3. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    4. Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2021. "Debt-Stabilizing Properties of GDP-Linked Securities: A Macro-Finance Perspective," Working papers 844, Banque de France.
    5. Chen, Ren-Raw & Liu, Bo & Cheng, Xiaolin, 2010. "Pricing the term structure of inflation risk premia: Theory and evidence from TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 702-721, September.
    6. William Dudley, 2009. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Speech 11, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Westerhout, Ed, 2021. "Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies," Other publications TiSEM ee384b1f-4e6f-4f30-821e-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2020. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: A Macroeconomic Interpretation," Working Paper Series WP 2020-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Francisco Palomino & Alex Hsu, 2013. "What do Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy tell us about the Real Yield Curve?," 2013 Meeting Papers 50, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Discussion Papers 32/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Paul Söderlind, 2011. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 113-133, June.
    12. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
    13. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    14. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    15. Marente Vlekke & Martin Mellens & Siem Jan Koopmans, 2020. "An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 416, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Brandyn Bok & Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2022. "Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds," Working Paper Series 2022-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," Economics Working Paper Archive 600, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    18. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2020. "No-arbitrage pricing of GDP-linked bonds," Bank of England working papers 849, Bank of England.
    19. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.
    21. Meredith J. Beechey, 2008. "Lowering the anchor: how the Bank of England's inflation-targeting policies have shaped inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    23. Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and the Nominal Term Premium," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    24. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    25. Abraham Lioui & Andrea Tarelli, 2023. "Money Illusion and TIPS Demand," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 171-214, February.
    26. Jens H. E. Christensen & Mark M. Spiegel, 2021. "Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Working Paper Series 2021-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    27. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    28. John Campbell & Robert Shiller & Luis Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2587, Yale School of Management.
    29. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    30. Flavia Antonacci & Cristina Costantini & Marco Papi, 2021. "Short-Term Interest Rate Estimation by Filtering in a Model Linking Inflation, the Central Bank and Short-Term Interest Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, May.
    31. Coffinet, J. & Frappa, S., 2008. "Macroeconomic Surprises and the Inflation Compensation Curve in the Euro Area," Working papers 220, Banque de France.
    32. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2015. "UK Term Structure Decompositions at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 755, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    33. Kazuhiro Hiraki & Wataru Hirata, 2020. "Market-based Long-term Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Refinement on Breakeven Inflation Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    34. Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandía & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2015. "Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 13700, Banco de la Republica.
    35. Cristhian Hernando Ruiz Cardozo & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2023. "The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt: Evidence from an Emerging Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2023-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    36. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2011. "Inflation hedging portfolios in different regimes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 139-163, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Cartea, Álvaro & Saúl, Jonatan & Toro, Juan, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-740.
    38. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    39. Marcello Pericoli, 2019. "An assessment of recent trends in market-based expected iflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 542, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    40. Haensly, Paul J., 2016. "Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-20.
    41. Cette, G. & de Jong, M., 2013. "Market-implied inflation and growth rates adversely affected by the Brent," Working papers 433, Banque de France.
    42. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    43. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillen, 2010. "Do Inflation-linked Bonds Contain Information about Future Inflation?," Working Papers Series 214, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    44. Dominic Anene & Stefania D'Amico, 2017. "A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series WP-2017-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    45. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction," IREA Working Papers 202315, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2023.
    46. Huang, Xiaoyong & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun & Yu shi,, 2019. "The threshold effect of market sentiment and inflation expectations on gold price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 77-83.
    47. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    48. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    49. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Working Paper Series 2021-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    50. Westerhout, Ed, 2021. "Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies," Discussion Paper 2021-001, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    51. P. Lopez, 2014. "The Term Structure of the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty," Working papers 521, Banque de France.
    52. Amin, Shehryar & Tédongap, Roméo, 2023. "The changing landscape of treasury auctions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    53. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    54. Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, 2020. "Real Term Structure and New Keynesian Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 95-139, June.
    55. Baumeister, Christiane, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2013. "Alternative inflation hedging strategies for ALM," MPRA Paper 43755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    58. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Alternative Inflation Hedging Portfolio Strategies: Going Forward Under Immoderate Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 42854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    60. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    61. Timmermann, Allan & Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    62. Alex Aronovich & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2021. "High-Frequency Estimates of the Natural Real Rate and Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    63. Jeffrey Schafer, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03," Working Papers 57398, Congressional Budget Office.
    64. Auckenthaler, Julia & Kupfer, Alexander & Sendlhofer, Rupert, 2015. "The impact of liquidity on inflation-linked bonds: A hypothetical indexed bonds approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 139-154.
    65. Li, Kai, 2019. "Portfolio selection with inflation-linked bonds and indexation lags," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    66. Tobias Adrian & Hao Wu, 2009. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Staff Reports 362, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    67. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    68. J. Benson Durham, 2006. "An estimate of the inflation risk premium using a three-factor affine term structure model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    69. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
    70. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2008. "Are long-run inflation expectations anchored more firmly in the Euro area than in the United States?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    71. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    72. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    73. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13393, Inter-American Development Bank.
    74. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    75. Pierlauro Lopez, 2021. "Welfare Implications of Asset Pricing Facts: Should Central Banks Fill Gaps or Remove Volatility?," Working Papers 21-16R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 May 2023.
    76. Julie Bennett & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 131-148.
    77. Guimaraes, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2023. "The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1045, Bank of England.
    78. Dooruj Rambaccussing & Craig Menzies & Andrzej Kwiatkowski, 2022. "Look who’s Talking: Individual Committee members’ impact on inflation expectations," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 305, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    79. Beckworth, David & Horan, Patrick, 2022. "The Fate of FAIT: Salvaging the Fed’s Framework," Working Papers 10840, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    80. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    81. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference \"Strategies for Monetary Policy,\" Stanford University, Stanford, California, May 3, 201," Speech 1058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    82. Stefania D’Amico & N Aaron Pancost, 2022. "Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: The Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium [Pr icing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 117-162.
    83. Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Taming Debt: Can GDP-Linked Bonds Do the Trick?," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-13, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    84. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    85. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    86. Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, 2021. "Drivers of inflation-linked public debt: an empirical investigation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 223-244, February.
    87. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    88. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel, 2022. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: trends and policy considerations," Post-Print hal-03943684, HAL.
    89. Duran, Murat & Gülşen, Eda, 2013. "Estimating inflation compensation for Turkey using yield curves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 592-601.
    90. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2023. "The information in joint term structures of bond yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    91. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    92. Daniel L. Tortorice & Arben Kita, 2018. "Can Risk Models Extract Inflation Expectations from Financial Market Data? Evidence from the Inflation Protected Securities of Six Countries," Working Papers 1801, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    93. Kajuth, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2008. "Inflation expectations from index-linked bonds: Correcting for liquidity and inflation risk premia," Discussion Papers in Economics 4858, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    94. Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2020. "Financial market risk and macroeconomic stability variables: dynamic interactions and feedback effects," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 655-669, October.
    95. Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2023. "A Financial New Keynesian Model," Working Paper Series 2023-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    96. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Gillan, James M., 2022. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    97. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2012. "Inflation-Hedging Portfolios : Economic Regimes Matter," Post-Print hal-01494498, HAL.
    98. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Soper, Carolyne, 2019. "Market risk and market-implied inflation expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    99. Swinkels, Laurens, 2018. "Simulating historical inflation-linked bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-389.
    100. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco Palomino, 2021. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1138-1158, February.
    101. Maurice Obstfeld, 2023. "The Mayekawa Lecture: Perspectives on r-bar and r-star," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 41, pages 31-48, November.
    102. Maurice Obstfeld, 2023. "Perspectives on r-bar and r-star," IMES Discussion Paper Series 23-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    103. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    104. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2009. "What drives euro area break-even inflation rates?," Working Paper Series 996, European Central Bank.
    105. Alberto Di Iorio & Marco Fanari, 2020. "Break-even inflation rates: the Italian case," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 578, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    106. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    107. Ejsing, Jacob & Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "The term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates: the impact of seasonality," Working Paper Series 830, European Central Bank.
    108. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    109. Olivier J. Blanchard & Paolo Mauro & Julien Acalin, 2016. "The Case for Growth-Indexed Bonds in Advanced Economies Today," Policy Briefs PB16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    110. F. Antonacci & C. Costantini & F. D'Ippoliti & M. Papi, 2020. "Inflation, ECB and short-term interest rates: A new model, with calibration to market data," Papers 2010.05462, arXiv.org.
    111. Barria, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.
    112. Minwook Kang, 2020. "Inflation‐Indexed Bonds and Nominal Bonds: Financial Innovation and Precautionary Motives," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 721-745, June.
    113. Gozluklu, Arie & Morin, Annaïg, 2019. "Stock vs. Bond yields and demographic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    114. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.

  14. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2007. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Luis F. Céspedes & Javier García-Cicco & Diego Saravia, 2013. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: The Chilean Experience," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 712, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    5. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2010. "Default, Liquidity and Crises : An Econometric Framework," Working Papers 2010-46, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Wolfgang Lemke & Theofanis Archontakis, 2008. "Bond pricing when the short-term interest rate follows a threshold process," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 811-822.
    7. Ed Westerhout & Ona Ciocyte, 2017. "The role of inflation-linked bonds," CPB Discussion Paper 344, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Chen, Ren-Raw & Liu, Bo & Cheng, Xiaolin, 2010. "Pricing the term structure of inflation risk premia: Theory and evidence from TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 702-721, September.
    9. Koeda, Junko, 2013. "Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-188.
    10. Zolotoy, Leon & Frederickson, James R. & Lyon, John D., 2017. "Aggregate earnings and stock market returns: The good, the bad, and the state-dependent," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 157-175.
    11. William Dudley, 2009. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Speech 11, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2008. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?," Working Paper Series 874, European Central Bank.
    13. Kyungbo Park & Hangook Kim & Jeonghwa Cha, 2023. "An Exploratory Study on the Development of a Crisis Index: Focusing on South Korea’s Petroleum Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
    14. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Gianni De Nicolò & Iryna Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," CESifo Working Paper Series 2598, CESifo.
    17. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    18. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2007. "Uncovering the U.S. Term Premium: An Alternative Route," Faculty Working Papers 12/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    20. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2023. "On illiquidity of an emerging sovereign bond market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    21. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2006. "The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 203, Society for Computational Economics.
    23. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2010. "Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 15736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Carl Chiarella & Willi Semmler & Chih-Ying Hsiao & Lebogang Mateane, 2016. "Asset Accumulation and Portfolio Decisions Under Inflation Risk," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Sustainable Asset Accumulation and Dynamic Portfolio Decisions, chapter 0, pages 139-177, Springer.
    25. Mikhail Chernov & Ruslan Bikbov, 2009. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2009 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Wu, Shu, 2017. "Federal Reserve Credibility and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 78253, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2020. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: A Macroeconomic Interpretation," Working Paper Series WP 2020-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    29. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    30. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Le, Anh & Lundblad, Christian, 2015. "Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 58-83.
    31. Hrishikesh Vinod & Lekha S. Chakraborty & Honey Karun, 2014. "If Deficits Are Not the Culprit, What Determines Indian Interest Rates? An Evaluation Using the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap Method," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_811, Levy Economics Institute.
    32. Francisco Palomino & Alex Hsu, 2013. "What do Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy tell us about the Real Yield Curve?," 2013 Meeting Papers 50, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2020. "Time-Varying Consumer Disagreement and Future Inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    34. Peter Hördahl, 2008. "The inflation risk premium in the term structure of interest rates," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    35. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steve, 2006. "Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 5951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Discussion Papers 32/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    37. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2014. "Decompondo a Inflação Implícita," Working Papers Series 359, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    38. Arben Kita & Daniel L. Tortorice, 2021. "Arbitrage in International Sovereign Debt Markets? Evidence from the Inflation‐Protected Securities of Six Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1417-1448, September.
    39. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & Alberto G. Rossi, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Risk Underlying the Cross Section of Commodity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 619-641, February.
    40. Mehmet Pasaogullari & Simeon Tsonevy, 2011. "The term structure of inflation compensation in the nominal yield curve," Working Papers (Old Series) 1133, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    41. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    42. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    43. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    44. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    45. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2015. "Asset Return Dynamics under Habits and Bad-Environment Good-Environment Fundamentals," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Greenspan’s conundrum and the Fed’s ability to affect long-term yields," Working Papers 2012-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    47. Lelo de Larrea Alejandra, 2020. "Forecast Comparison of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of Mexico for Different Specifications of the Affine Model," Working Papers 2020-01, Banco de México.
    48. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
    49. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    50. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.
    51. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    52. Hisashi Nakamura & Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2008. "Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Recursive Preferences in Continuous Time," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 15(3), pages 273-305, December.
    53. Fan, Longzhen & Tian, Shu & Zhang, Chu, 2012. "Why are excess returns on China’s Treasury bonds so predictable? The role of the monetary system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 239-248.
    54. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Staff Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada.
    55. Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and the Nominal Term Premium," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    56. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
    57. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2009. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 15270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Martijn Boons & Frans de Roon & Fernando M. Duarte & Marta Szymanowska, 2013. "Time-Varying Inflation Risk and Stock Returns," Staff Reports 621, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    59. Suleyman Basak & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and Investor Behaviour in the Presence of Money Illusion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(3), pages 914-936.
    60. Xu, Nancy R., 2021. "Procyclicality of the comovement between dividend growth and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 288-312.
    61. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    62. Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Working Papers 2007-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    63. Stig V. Møller, 2007. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2007-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    64. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2019. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 26427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    65. Michael Ade, 2017. "Analysis of tax harmonisation in SADC," Working Papers 127, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    66. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    67. Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    68. Juha Seppala & Federico Ravenna, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premium," 2007 Meeting Papers 513, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    69. Guibaud, Stéphane & Nosbusch, Yves & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2011. "Bond market clienteles, the yield curve and the optimal maturity structure of government debt," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29785, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    70. Kaminska, Iryna & Vayanos, Dimitri & Zinna, Gabriele, 2011. "Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119074, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    71. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    72. Dionne, Georges & Gauthier, Geneviève & Hammami, Khemais & Maurice, Mathieu & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2010. "A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors," Working Papers 10-6, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    73. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
    74. Andrea Ajello & Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk, 2012. "Core and 'Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series WP-2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    75. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    77. Junko Koeda, 2011. "Japanese Yield Curves In and Out of a Zero Rate Environmnet: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-254, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Nov 2011.
    78. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    79. Bjørn Eraker & Ivan Shaliastovich & Wenyu Wang, 2016. "Durable Goods, Inflation Risk, and Equilibrium Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 193-231.
    80. Andrew Ang & Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2012. "Inflation and Individual Equities," NBER Working Papers 17798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    81. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. Andrea Berardi, 2013. "Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility and Macro Factors," Working Papers 27/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    83. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime‐Switching Models With Covariate‐Dependent Transition Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1681-1710, July.
    84. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    85. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    86. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    87. Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
    88. Mr. Vadim Khramov, 2013. "Estimating Parameters of Short-Term Real Interest Rate Models," IMF Working Papers 2013/212, International Monetary Fund.
    89. Renne Jean-Paul, 2017. "A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 99-116, February.
    90. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    91. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    92. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working Papers 2007-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    93. Matthew Wang & Yi-Hong Lin & Ilya Mikhelson, 2020. "Regime-Switching Factor Investing with Hidden Markov Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, December.
    94. Manqoba Ntshakala & Laurence Harris, 2018. "The information content of the yield spread about future inflation in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    95. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    96. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 217, Society for Computational Economics.
    97. Hatcher, Michael, 2013. "The Inflation Risk Premium on Government Debt in an Overlapping Generations Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-81, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    98. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the Stock Market:Understanding the "Fed Model"," NBER Working Papers 15024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    99. Kaminska, Iryna, 2008. "A no-arbitrage structural vector autoregressive model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 357, Bank of England.
    100. Andrew Levin & John B. Taylor, 2013. "Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 217-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    101. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    102. Peter Spreij & Enno Veerman & Peter Vlaar, 2008. "Multivariate Feller conditions in term structure models: Why do(n't) we care?," Papers 0804.1039, arXiv.org.
    103. Antonios Sangvinatsos & Jessica A. Wachter, 2003. "Does the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis Matter for Long-Term Investors," NBER Working Papers 10086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    104. Haensly, Paul J., 2016. "Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-20.
    105. Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Common risk factors of infrastructure investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 257-273.
    106. Cette, G. & de Jong, M., 2013. "Market-implied inflation and growth rates adversely affected by the Brent," Working papers 433, Banque de France.
    107. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2018. "Disappearing money illusion," CREATES Research Papers 2018-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    108. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    109. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillen, 2010. "Do Inflation-linked Bonds Contain Information about Future Inflation?," Working Papers Series 214, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    110. Andreas Reschreiter, 2010. "Indexed bonds and revisions of inflation expectations," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 537-554, October.
    111. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    112. Campbell, John Y. & Sunderam, Adi & Viceira, Luis M., 2017. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 263-301, September.
    113. Ermolov, Andrey, 2022. "Time-varying risk of nominal bonds: How important are macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-28.
    114. José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model," Working Papers Series 543, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    115. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    116. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2016. "Break-Even-Inflation's Decomposition in Mexico," Working Papers 2016-22, Banco de México.
    117. Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2014. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    118. Hidenori Futami, 2009. "Multi-factor Affine Term Structure Model with Single Regime Shift: Real Term Structure under Zero Interest Rate," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(4), pages 347-369, December.
    119. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    120. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
    121. Christopher M. Bilson & Timothy J. Brailsford & Luke J. Sullivan & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2008. "Pricing Bonds in the Australian Market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(1), pages 123-143, June.
    122. Roman Sustek, 2021. "Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times," Discussion Papers 2122, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    123. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, September.
    124. P. Lopez, 2014. "The Term Structure of the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty," Working papers 521, Banque de France.
    125. Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David & Hördahl, Peter, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Working Paper Series 405, European Central Bank.
    126. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2017. "Cyclical and Persistent Carry Trade Returns and Forward Premia," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 1-33, December.
    127. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    128. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    129. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2011. "Demographics and The Behaviour of Interest Rates," Working Papers 388, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    130. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting growth and stock performance using government and corporate yield curves: Evidence from the European and Asian markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-41.
    131. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "A Dynamic Inflation Hedging Trading Strategy Using a CPPI," MPRA Paper 42851, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Nov 2012.
    132. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    133. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    134. Rajnish Mehra & Arunima Sinha, 2016. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in India," NBER Working Papers 22020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    135. Constantin Anghelache & Marius Popovici & Alina – Georgiana Solomon & Emilia Stanciu, 2017. "Aggregates in Real Expression and Price Indices by Deflation," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(6), pages 1053-1060, June.
    136. Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign yield curves," Working papers 352, Banque de France.
    137. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    138. Ricardo Gimeno & Alfredo Ibáñez, 2017. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: an option’s eyes view," Working Papers 1722, Banco de España.
    139. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    140. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    141. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2018. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two-horizons framework," Post-Print hal-01828854, HAL.
    142. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Ralph S.J. Koijen & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    143. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    144. Boeckx, Jef & Iania, Leonardo & Wauters, Joris, 2023. "Macroeconomic drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    145. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "China'S Official Rates And Bond Yields," Working Paper Series 2009-3, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    146. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Lustig, Hanno & Koijen, Ralph, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    147. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    148. Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Alexander P. Attie, 2009. "Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors," IMF Working Papers 2009/090, International Monetary Fund.
    149. Cláudia Simões & Luís Oliveira & Jorge M. Bravo, 2021. "Immunization Strategies for Funding Multiple Inflation-Linked Retirement Income Benefits," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-28, March.
    150. Theofanis Archontakis & Wolfgang Lemke, 2008. "Threshold Dynamics of Short‐term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term Structure," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 75-117, February.
    151. Azamat Abdymomunov & Kyu Ho Kang & Ki Jeong Kim, 2014. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields Using Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    152. Verdelhan, Adrien & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Lustig, Hanno, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    153. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    154. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Risk, Uncertainty and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 12248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    155. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
    156. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
    157. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks, Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    158. Tobias Adrian & Hao Wu, 2009. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Staff Reports 362, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    159. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
    160. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Otto Van Hemert & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Mortgage Timing," NBER Working Papers 13361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    161. Paul J. Haensly, 2016. "Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 1-20, January.
    162. Md Hamid Uddin & Sarkar H. Kabir & Mohammad Kabir Hassan & Mohammed S. Hossain & Jia Liu, 2022. "Why do sukuks (Islamic bonds) need a different pricing model?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2210-2234, April.
    163. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    164. Chrétien, Stéphane, 2012. "Bounds on the autocorrelation of admissible stochastic discount factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1943-1962.
    165. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
    166. Sewon Hur & Illenin O. Kondo & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Inflation, Debt, and Default," Working Papers (Old Series) 1812, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    167. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "The Risk Premium of Gold," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-616, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    168. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Comparing inflation and price-level targeting: A comprehensive review of the literature," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    169. Azoulay, Eddy & Brenner, Menachem & Landskroner, Yoram & Stein, Roy, 2014. "Inflation risk premium implied by options," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 90-102.
    170. Andreasen, Martin, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England working papers 441, Bank of England.
    171. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Interest rate rules and inflation risks in a macro‐finance model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 416-440, September.
    172. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    173. Kaschützke, B. & Maurer, R., 2016. "Investing and Portfolio Allocation for Retirement," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 567-608, Elsevier.
    174. Emmanouil Platanakis & Charles Sutcliffe, 2015. "Pension Scheme Redesign and Wealth Redistribution Between the Members and Sponsor: The USS Rule Change in October 2011," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    175. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    176. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    177. Filipova, Kameliya & Audrino, Francesco & De Giorgi, Enrico, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes: Implications for the yield curve and bond pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 427-454.
    178. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "TIPS and the VIX: Non-linear Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation," Working Papers 1502, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    179. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    180. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    181. Ronald Lange, 2010. "Sources of regime switching in short-term interest rates for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 439-454.
    182. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    183. Mueller, Philippe & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Vedolin, Andrea, 2013. "International correlation risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43087, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    184. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    185. Ho, Hsiao-Wei & Huang, Henry H. & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2014. "Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 159-169.
    186. Javed I. Ahmed, 2014. "Competition in Lending and Credit Ratings," Working Papers 14-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    187. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    188. Lange, Ronald H., 2010. "Regime-switching monetary policy in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 782-796, September.
    189. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    190. Lange, Ronald H., 2017. "The expected real yield and inflation components of the nominal yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    191. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications for Consumptions and Asset Prices," CEU Working Papers 2014_2, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    192. Eugene F Fama, 2019. "Interest Rates and Inflation Revisited," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 197-209.
    193. Marcelo Ferman, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," FMG Discussion Papers dp678, Financial Markets Group.
    194. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    195. Matti Suominen & Petri Jylhä, 2009. "Arbitrage Capital and Currency Carry Trade Returns," 2009 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    196. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
    197. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
    198. Hoevenaars, Roy P.M.M. & Ponds, Eduard H.M., 2008. "Valuation of intergenerational transfers in funded collective pension schemes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 578-593, April.
    199. Luciano Vereda & Hélio Lopes & Jessica Kubrusly & Adrian Pizzinga & Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim, 2014. "Yield Curve Forecasts and the Predictive Power of Macro Variables in a VAR Framework," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 377-393.
    200. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Kang, Kyu Ho & Kim, Ki Jeong, 2016. "Can credit spreads help predict a yield curve?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-61.
    201. Daniel L. Tortorice & Arben Kita, 2018. "Can Risk Models Extract Inflation Expectations from Financial Market Data? Evidence from the Inflation Protected Securities of Six Countries," Working Papers 1801, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    202. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Discussion Paper 2017-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    203. Boris Cournède & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Is there a Case for Price-level Targeting?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 721, OECD Publishing.
    204. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Tae, Hyeon-Wuk, 2018. "Option pricing under regime switching: Integration over simplexes method," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 301-312.
    205. Anna Cieslak & Andreas Schrimpf, 2018. "Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication," NBER Working Papers 25032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    206. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    207. Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009. "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Working Papers 0906, Banco de España.
    208. García-Verdú Santiago, 2010. "Equilibrium yield curves under regime switching," Working Papers 2010-08, Banco de México.
    209. Sangyong Joo & Daehwan Kim & Jeffrey Nilsen, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in Korea: A Decomposition Analysis," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 327-366.
    210. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 519-544.
    211. Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
    212. Chaojun Li & Yan Liu, 2020. "Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in Regime-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Papers 2010.04930, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    213. Lee, Seojin & Kim, Young Min, 2019. "Inflation expectation, monetary policy credibility, and exchange rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    214. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco Palomino, 2021. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1138-1158, February.
    215. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
    216. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2023. "Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 689-716, May.
    217. Kick, Heinrich, 2017. "Pricing of bonds and equity when the zero lower bound is relevant," Working Paper Series 1992, European Central Bank.
    218. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    219. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2018. "How do zero-coupon inflation swaps predict inflation rates in the euro area? Evidence of efficiency and accuracy on 1-year contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1451-1475, June.
    220. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    221. Kei Imakubo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    222. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Other publications TiSEM 08878bbd-e76e-4216-bee9-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    223. Ye, Xiaoxia, 2012. "Market expectations of the short rate and the term structure of interest rates: a new perspective from the classic model," MPRA Paper 41093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    224. Jing Yuan & Yan Peng & Zongwu Cai & Zhengyi Zhang, 2022. "A Quantitative Evaluation of Interest Rate Liberalization Reform in China," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202214, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    225. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2009. "What drives euro area break-even inflation rates?," Working Paper Series 996, European Central Bank.
    226. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    227. El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    228. Moerman, Gerard A. & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2010. "Inflation risk and international asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 840-855, April.
    229. Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2007. "The Long-run Risk Model: Dynamics and Cyclicality of Interest Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 58, Institute for Financial Research.
    230. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    231. Tosapol Apaitan, 2015. "Extracting Market Inflation Expectations: A Semi-structural Macro-finance Term Structure Model," PIER Discussion Papers 4, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    232. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    233. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España.
    234. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    235. Du, Du, 2013. "General equilibrium pricing of currency and currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 730-751.
    236. Gozluklu, Arie & Morin, Annaïg, 2019. "Stock vs. Bond yields and demographic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    237. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.

  15. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    2. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: Obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1689, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2008. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Working Paper Series 926, European Central Bank.
    5. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Peter Hooper & Bruce C. Kasman & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Understanding the Evolving the Evolving Inflation Process," Working Papers 2007-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    6. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    7. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2011. "Data Revisions, Gradualism, and US Inflation Pressure in Real Time," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 1110, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    8. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    9. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    10. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
    11. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
    12. Jongen, R. & Muller, A. & Verschoor, W.F.C., 2012. "Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 148-169.
    13. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    14. Capistrán Carlos & López Moctezuma Gabriel, 2008. "Experts' Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
    15. Medel, Carlos A., 2017. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy," MPRA Paper 78439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Orazio Attanasio & Krisztina Molnar, 2017. "Euler Equations, Subjective Expectations and Income Shocks," Economics Series Working Papers 820, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    18. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2013. "Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 199-212.
    19. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," Working Paper Series 2007:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    20. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
    23. Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2014. "Economic Literacy and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1421-1456, October.
    24. Constantin Bürgi, 2020. "Expectation Formation and the Persistence of Shocks," Working Papers 2020-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Sep 2020.
    25. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," CID Working Papers 139, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    26. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Pennacchi, George G., 2016. "Discounting pension liabilities: funding versus value," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 254-284, July.
    27. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "Macro expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-064, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    28. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013. "Measuring The Slowly Evolving Trend In Us Inflation With Professional Forecasts," Working Paper 1316, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    29. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
    30. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
    31. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
    32. Magdalena Grothe & Aidan Meyler, 2018. "Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 171-188, January.
    33. Prüser, Jan, 2017. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Ruhr Economic Papers 710, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    34. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    36. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    37. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    38. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    39. Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
    40. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2008. "Expected consumption growth from cross-country surveys: implications for assessing international capital markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 949, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    42. Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 379-431.
    43. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
    44. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2014. "Decompondo a Inflação Implícita," Working Papers Series 359, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    45. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    46. Pablo Pincheira B. & Nicolás Fernández, 2011. "Jaque Mate a las Proyecciones de Consenso," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 630, Central Bank of Chile.
    47. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    48. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "Predicting US CPI-Inflation in the presence of asymmetries, persistence, endogeneity, and conditional heteroscedasticity," Working Papers 026, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    49. Richhild Moessner & Feng Zhu & Colin Ellis, 2011. "Measuring disagreement in UK consumer and central bank inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 339, Bank for International Settlements.
    50. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
    51. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Andrade, P. & Fourel, V. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, I., 2013. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," Working papers 437, Banque de France.
    53. Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
    54. Kaaresvirta, Juuso & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2008. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2008, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    55. Adcock, Christopher & Bessler, Wolfgang & Conlon, Thomas, 2022. "Characteristic-sorted portfolios and macroeconomic risks—An orthogonal decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-50.
    56. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
    57. Ehling, Paul & Gallmeyer, Michael & Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian & Illeditsch, Philipp, 2018. "Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 459-484.
    58. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, May.
    59. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Informational Content of the Term Spread in Forecasting the US Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 109-121, March.
    60. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    61. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    62. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
    63. Joshua C.C. Chan & Garry Koop & Roberto Leon Gonzales & Rodney W. Strachan, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2010-523, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    64. Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52.
    65. Masolo, Riccardo M, 2022. "Mainly employment: survey-based news and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 958, Bank of England.
    66. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
    67. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
    68. Chinara Azizova & Bruno Feunou & James Kyeong, 2023. "Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency," Discussion Papers 2023-19, Bank of Canada.
    69. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    70. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
    71. Jean-Baptiste, Frédo, 2012. "Forecasting with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 811-813.
    72. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    73. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
    74. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
    75. Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova, 2010. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Working Papers 2010/14, Czech National Bank.
    76. Michael Weber & Francesco D’Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," NBER Working Papers 30046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    77. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    78. Guimarães, Rodrigo, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England working papers 489, Bank of England.
    79. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
    80. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Paper Series 0801, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    81. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    82. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    83. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules without Forward-Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
    84. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    85. Karol Szafranek, 2016. "Linking excessive disinflation and output movements in an emerging, small open economy A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve perspective," NBP Working Papers 239, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    86. Pedro A.C. Saffi & Carles Vergara‐Alert, 2020. "The Big Short: Short Selling Activity and Predictability in House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1030-1073, December.
    87. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    88. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Staff Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
    89. Dick Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 693-712, August.
    90. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2020. "Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of COVID-19: A Real-time Analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    91. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    92. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.
    93. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    94. Vijay VICTOR & Maria FEKETE FARKAS & Florence JEESON, 2018. "Inflation unemployment dynamics in Hungary – A structured cointegration and vector error correction model approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 195-204, Summer.
    95. Martijn Boons & Frans de Roon & Fernando M. Duarte & Marta Szymanowska, 2013. "Time-Varying Inflation Risk and Stock Returns," Staff Reports 621, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    96. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," NBER Working Papers 25016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    97. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    98. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    99. Magdalena Szyszko, 2017. "Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 286-299.
    100. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2023. "Are lay expectations of inflation based on recall of specific prices? If so, how and under what conditions?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    101. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, And Information Rigidities," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2158-2176, October.
    102. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Economics Working Papers 1416, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2017.
    103. Yun Liao, 2017. "Machine Learning in Macro-Economic Series Forecasting," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(12), pages 71-76, December.
    104. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.
    105. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    106. Hubrich, Kirstin & González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," Working Paper Series 1363, European Central Bank.
    107. Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2011. "Exploring Survey-Based Inflation Forecasts," Faculty Working Papers 05/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    108. Lillian Kamal, 2014. "Do GAP Models Still have a Role to Play in Forecasting Inflation?," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(3), pages 1-12.
    109. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
    110. Feunou Bruno & Fontaine Jean-Sébastien & Jin Jianjian, 2021. "What model for the target rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23, February.
    111. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    112. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    113. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    114. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009.
    115. Fabian Kr�ger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers No 8/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    116. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    117. Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    118. Colin Campbell & Anthony M. Diercks & Steven A. Sharpe & Daniel Soques, 2023. "The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    119. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    120. Fausto Vieira & Fernando Chague, Marcelo Fernandes, 2016. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield curve in the US," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_31, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    121. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2021. "Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-7, October.
    122. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," Economic Research Papers 270629, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    123. Ivașcu Codruț, 2023. "Can Machine Learning Models Predict Inflation?," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 1748-1756, July.
    124. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts," Post-Print hal-02894262, HAL.
    125. Dan Li & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Household Investors Noise Traders: Evidence from Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    126. Chee Yin Yip & Hock Eam Lim & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2016. "Effectiveness of a Cluster of Determinants to Increase Economic Growth Rate: A Combined Statistical Criteria Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 728-735.
    127. Kazeem O. Isah & Abdulkader C. Mahomedy & Elias A. Udeaja & Ojo J. Adelakun & Yusuf Yakubu & Danmecca Musa, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price–exchange rate–asymmetry perspectives," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 329-348, September.
    128. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2017. "Empirical Findings on Inflation Expectations in Brazil: a survey," Working Papers Series 464, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    129. Schmidt, Torsten, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Uncertainty, Inflation and the Outputgap," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181575, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    130. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2014. "Inflation expectation dynamics: the role of past present and forward looking information," Working Papers hal-03473828, HAL.
    131. Andrea Ajello & Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk, 2012. "Core and 'Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series WP-2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    132. J. Daniel Aromí & Martín Llada, 2020. "Forecasting inflation with twitter," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4308, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    133. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    134. Elmar Mertens, 2011. "Measuring the level and uncertainty of trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    135. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2015. "What Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Do?," Working Paper Series WP-2015-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    136. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    137. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
    138. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    139. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    140. Macias, Paweł & Stelmasiak, Damian & Szafranek, Karol, 2023. "Nowcasting food inflation with a massive amount of online prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 809-826.
    141. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2013. "Inflation expectations in Spain: The Spanish PwC Survey," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 36(101), pages 109-115, Agosto.
    142. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
    143. Nathan Goldstein & Ben‐Zion Zilberfarb, 2023. "The closer we get, the better we are?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 364-376, April.
    144. Omer Bayar, 2022. "Reducing large datasets to improve the identification of estimated policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 113-140, July.
    145. Lena Dräger & Ulrich Fritsche, 2013. "Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201308, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    146. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    147. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do inflation expectations propagate the inflationary impact of real oil price shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan survey," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    148. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    149. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    150. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    151. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2018. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: an evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," BIS Working Papers 713, Bank for International Settlements.
    152. Mr. Vadim Khramov, 2013. "Estimating Parameters of Short-Term Real Interest Rate Models," IMF Working Papers 2013/212, International Monetary Fund.
    153. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Staff Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
    154. Hauzenberger Niko & Huber Florian & Pfarrhofer Michael & Zörner Thomas O., 2021. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-17, April.
    155. Gerunov, Anton, 2013. "Връзка Между Икономическите Очаквания И Стопанската Динамика В Ес-27 [Linkages Between Expectations and Economic Dynamics in EU-27]," MPRA Paper 68795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    156. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio & Downs, Julie S. & Fischhoff, Baruch & Armantier, Olivier, 2012. "The effect of question wording on consumers’ reported inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 749-757.
    157. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    158. Reis, Ricardo, 2022. "Losing the inflation anchor," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112462, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    159. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.
    160. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2022. "Robust inference under time‐varying volatility: A real‐time evaluation of professional forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1010-1030, August.
    161. Tule, Moses K. & Salisu, Afees A. & Chiemeke, Charles C., 2019. "Can agricultural commodity prices predict Nigeria's inflation?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    162. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    163. Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph, 2022. "Inflation expectations: Australian consumer survey data versus the bond market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 416-430.
    164. Bige Küçükefe, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation Using Summary Statistics of Survey Expectations: A Machine-Learning Approach," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, January.
    165. Moses Tule & Afees A. Salisu & Charles Chimeke, 2018. "You are what you eat: The role of oil price in Nigeria inflation forecast," Working Papers 040, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    166. Hamid Baghestani, 2016. "Interest rate movements and US consumers’ inflation forecast errors: is there a link?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 623-630, July.
    167. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll," Post-Print hal-00743770, HAL.
    168. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    169. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2012. "Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 145-169, February.
    170. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Forecast combination, non-linear dynamics, and the macroeconomy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(3), pages 653-686, March.
    171. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio, 2011. "Expectations of inflation: The biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 834-845.
    172. Sunil Kumar, 2016. "Latent class analyisis for reliable measure of inflation expectation in the indian public," Papers 1603.01397, arXiv.org.
    173. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the Stock Market:Understanding the "Fed Model"," NBER Working Papers 15024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    174. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    175. Andrew Levin & John B. Taylor, 2013. "Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 217-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    176. Andreas Karatahansopoulos & Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian Dunis, 2014. "Modelling and Trading the Greek Stock Market with Gene Expression and Genetic Programing Algorithms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 596-610, December.
    177. Leo Krippner & Michelle Lewis, 2018. "Real-time forecasting with macro-finance models in the presence of a zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    178. Alena Audzeyeva & Xu Wang, 2023. "Fundamentals, real-time uncertainty and CDS index spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    179. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    180. João Valle e Azevedo & Inês Maria Gonçalves, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting from Survey Nowcasts," Working Papers w201502, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    181. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
    182. Cristian Badarinza & John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai, 2018. "What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2275-2288, May.
    183. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    184. Manzanares, Andrés & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank.
    185. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    186. Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
    187. Moses Tule & Afees Salisu & Charles Chiemeke, 2020. "Improving Nigeria’s Inflation Forecast with Oil Price: The Role of Estimators," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 191-229, March.
    188. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," NBER Working Papers 15773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    189. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    190. Haensly, Paul J., 2016. "Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-20.
    191. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    192. Pablo Pincheira, 2011. "A Bunch of Models, a Bunch of Nulls and Inference About Predictive Ability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 607, Central Bank of Chile.
    193. Ina Nurmalia Kurniati, 2015. "Forecasting Growth Of Third Party Funds," Working Papers WP/10/2015, Bank Indonesia.
    194. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler & Silvia Maria Matos, 2017. "Applying a microfounded-forecasting approach to predict Brazilian inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 137-163, August.
    195. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-337, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    196. MURASAWA Yasutomo, 2010. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," ESRI Discussion paper series 236, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    197. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    198. Miguel, Belmonte & Gary, Koop, 2013. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-34, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    199. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    200. Benjamin Beckers & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2017. "Reading between the Lines: Using Media to Improve German Inflation Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1665, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    201. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    202. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    203. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    204. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Hadiza Sa'id, 2021. "Improving forecasting accuracy of the Phillips curve in OECD countries: The role of commodity prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2946-2975, April.
    205. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    206. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2008. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 08-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    207. Ricardo Reis, 2020. "The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Papers 2033, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    208. Ysmailov, Bektemir, 2021. "Interest rates, cash and short-term investments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    209. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
    210. Dongchul Cho & Wankeun Oh, 2023. "Predictive Abilities of Inflation Expectations and Implications on Monetary Policy in Korea," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 39, pages 257-276.
    211. Kenneth West & Ka-fu Wong & Stanislav Anatolyev, 2009. "Instrumental Variables Estimation of Heteroskedastic Linear Models Using All Lags of Instruments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 441-467.
    212. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2014. "Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Staff Report 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    213. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    214. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Discussion Paper 2013-063, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    215. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    216. Troy Matheson, 2007. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    217. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    218. Kjetil Martinsen & Francesco Ravazzolo & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2011. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," Working Paper 2011/04, Norges Bank.
    219. Don H Kim, 2007. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," BIS Working Papers 240, Bank for International Settlements.
    220. Ermolov, Andrey, 2022. "Time-varying risk of nominal bonds: How important are macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-28.
    221. José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model," Working Papers Series 543, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    222. Christian Wolff & Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2009. "Time-Variation in Term Permia: International Survey-Based Evidence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-02, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    223. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    224. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Álvaro García Marín, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile With an Accurate Benchmark," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 514, Central Bank of Chile.
    225. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," NBER Working Papers 16707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    226. Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2014. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    227. Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2015. "What Do Professional Forecasters Actually Predict?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-095/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2017.
    228. Leite, André Luís & Filho, Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "Forecasting the yield curve: A statistical model with market survey data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 108-112, March.
    229. Karol Szafranek, 2017. "Bagged artificial neural networks in forecasting inflation: An extensive comparison with current modelling frameworks," NBP Working Papers 262, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    230. João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    231. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    232. Christopher G. Gibbs & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Conditionally Optimal Weights and Forward-Looking Approaches to Combining Forecasts," Discussion Papers 2017-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    233. Jean-François Bégin, 2016. "Deflation Risk and Implications for Life Insurers," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-36, December.
    234. Barbosa, Rodrigo dos Santos & Brito, Ricardo D. & Teles, Vladimir Kuhl, 2018. "Where did inflation targeting matter?," Textos para discussão 491, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    235. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    236. Thomas Conlon & Brian M. Lucey & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2018. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? A wavelet time-scale perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 317-345, August.
    237. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
    238. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 349-382, March.
    239. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2018. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4540-4555, September.
    240. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.
    241. Ghysels, Eric & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Forecasting Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 504-516.
    242. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    243. Michael D. Bauer, 2014. "Inflation Expectations and the News," Working Paper Series 2014-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    244. Yu, Deshui & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Nonparametric modeling for the time-varying persistence of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    245. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16 [Focus on Future Viability. Annual Report 2015/16]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    246. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," Working Paper series 43_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    247. Thuy Lan Nguyen & Wataru Miyamoto, 2014. "News shocks and Business cycles: Evidence from forecast data," 2014 Meeting Papers 259, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    248. Mr. Christopher W. Crowe, 2006. "Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Private Sector Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2006/289, International Monetary Fund.
    249. Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker, 2014. "The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    250. Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2023. "Anchoring Long-term VAR Forecasts Based On Survey Data and State-space Models," Working Papers Series 574, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    251. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    252. Brent H. Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," Working Papers 2021-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Nov 2021.
    253. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    254. Smith, Gregor W., 2009. "Pooling forecasts in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1858-1866, November.
    255. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
    256. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
    257. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 803-820, October.
    258. João Valle e Azevedo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    259. Balvers, Ronald J. & McDonald, Bill, 2021. "Designing a global digital currency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    260. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2010. "Evaluating the effect of monetary policy on unemployment with alternative inflation forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 237-253, January.
    261. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2011. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 1120, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    262. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Li, Nasha & Zou, Lin, 2016. "A New Approach to Modelling Sector Stock Returns in China," MPRA Paper 80554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    263. Paul Hubert, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03409181, HAL.
    264. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward- and backward-looking information for inflation expectations formation," Post-Print hal-03403616, HAL.
    265. Ricardo Gimeno & Alfredo Ibáñez, 2017. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: an option’s eyes view," Working Papers 1722, Banco de España.
    266. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    267. Engle, Robert & Roussellet, Guillaume & Siriwardane, Emil, 2017. "Scenario generation for long run interest rate risk assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 333-347.
    268. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    269. Hamid Baghestani & Sehar Fatima, 2021. "Growth in US Durables Spending: Assessing the Impact of Consumer Ability and Willingness to Buy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, April.
    270. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    271. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2020. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Working Papers 427, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    272. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is Chinese monetary policy forward-looking?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    273. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    274. Gabriele Galati & Peter Heemeijer & Richhild Moessner, 2011. "How do inflation expectations form? New insights from a high-frequency survey," BIS Working Papers 349, Bank for International Settlements.
    275. Dalina Amonhaemanon & Jan Annaert & Marc J.K. De Ceuster & Hau Le Long, 2014. "The Fisher Hypothesis and Investment Assets: The Vietnamese and Thai Case," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 180-195, October.
    276. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    277. Lukas Buchheim & Sebastian Link, 2017. "The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 6768, CESifo.
    278. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    279. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    280. Aparicio, Diego & Bertolotto, Manuel I., 2020. "Forecasting inflation with online prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 232-247.
    281. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    282. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    283. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168291, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    284. Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    285. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
    286. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Dubova, Irina, 2018. "What drives updates of inflation expectations? A Bayesian VAR analysis for the G-7 countries," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181518, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    287. Diego Moccero & Shingo Watanabe & Boris Cournède, 2011. "What Drives Inflation in the Major OECD Economies?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 854, OECD Publishing.
    288. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
    289. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    290. Doojav Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam Davaajargal, 2023. "Forecasting Inflation in Mongolia: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 27-48, January.
    291. Maarten van Oordt, 2017. "Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate?," Staff Working Papers 17-60, Bank of Canada.
    292. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    293. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is monetary policy forward-looking in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 4-14.
    294. Gorodnichenko, Y & Coibion, O, 2016. "How inertial is monetary policy? implications for the fed’s exit strategy," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2qc6f09b, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    295. Winkelried, Diego, 2014. "Inferring inflation expectations from fixed-event forecasts," Working Papers 2014-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    296. Arturo Ormeño, 2011. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3552, CESifo.
    297. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    298. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2016. "Forecasting with a Random Walk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(6), pages 539-564, December.
    299. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 954, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    300. Breitung, Jörg & Knüppel, Malte, 2018. "How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content," Discussion Papers 07/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    301. Li, Kai, 2019. "Portfolio selection with inflation-linked bonds and indexation lags," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    302. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," Working Papers 2010-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    303. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Otto Van Hemert & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Mortgage Timing," NBER Working Papers 13361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    304. Paul J. Haensly, 2016. "Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 1-20, January.
    305. Jaroslav Borovicka, 2016. "Identifying ambiguity shocks in business cycle models using survey data," 2016 Meeting Papers 1615, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    306. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    307. Stasys Girdzijauskas & Dalia Streimikiene & Ingrida Griesiene & Asta Mikalauskiene & Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos, 2022. "New Approach to Inflation Phenomena to Ensure Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, January.
    308. Szyszko Magdalena, 2015. "Inflation Forecasts Versus Shaping Inflation Expectations. Comparative Analysis / Prognoza Inflacji Wobec Kształtowania Oczekiwań Inflacyjnych. Analiza Porównawcza," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 18(4), pages 139-156, December.
    309. Giacomini, Raffaella & Skreta, Vasiliki & Turen, Javier, 2016. "Models, inattention and expectation updates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86245, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    310. Daniela Bragoli & Michele Modugno, 2016. "A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    311. Liu, Dandan & Smith, Julie K., 2014. "Inflation forecasts and core inflation measures: Where is the information on future inflation?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 133-137.
    312. Unn Lindholm & Marcus Mossfeldt & Pär Stockhammar, 2020. "Forecasting inflation in Sweden," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(1), pages 39-68, April.
    313. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "The Risk Premium of Gold," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-616, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    314. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    315. Robert A. Connolly & Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2022. "Stock returns and inflation shocks in weaker economic times," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 827-867, September.
    316. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    317. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    318. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    319. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
    320. Piotr Białowolski, 2016. "The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 509-528, March.
    321. Bharat Trehan, 2015. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 207-222, February.
    322. Capistrán, Carlos & Constandse, Christian & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2010. "Multi-horizon inflation forecasts using disaggregated data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 666-677, May.
    323. Rossi, Barbara & Ganics, Gergely & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Foreca," CEPR Discussion Papers 14267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    324. Radu Titus MARINESCU & Doina BUREA & Tudor SAMSON, 2017. "Aspects Of The Main Effects Of Inflation," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 84-91, June.
    325. Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    326. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    327. Andriantomanga, Zo, 2023. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," MPRA Paper 119904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    328. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: a Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 677, Central Bank of Chile.
    329. Christian Seiler, 2012. "On the Robustness of the Balance Statistics with respect to Nonresponse," ifo Working Paper Series 126, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    330. Hossein Hassani & Abdol S. Soofi & Anatoly Zhigljavsky, 2013. "Predicting inflation dynamics with singular spectrum analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 743-760, June.
    331. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    332. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    333. Zafar, Raja Fawad & Qayyum, Abdul & Ghouri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation using Functional Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 67208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    334. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2022. "Finding a Role for Slack in Real-Time Inflation Forecasting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 245-282, June.
    335. Ormeño, Arturo, 2012. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 2012-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    336. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    337. Ezgi O. Ozturk & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2017. "Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2017/219, International Monetary Fund.
    338. Shuyun May Li & Roshan Perera & Kalvinder Shields, 2013. "Misspecification, Identification or Measurement? Another Look at the Price Puzzle," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1169, The University of Melbourne.
    339. William Goetzmann & Akiko Watanabe & Masahiro Watanabe, 2008. "Investor Expectations, Business Conditions, and the Pricing of Beta-Instability Risk," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2656, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2009.
    340. Holden, Tom D., 2023. "Robust Real Rate Rules," EconStor Preprints 279481, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    341. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
    342. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 361-395.
    343. Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2015. "Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(26), pages 2699-2716, June.
    344. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    345. Araujo, Gustavo Silva & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2023. "Machine learning methods for inflation forecasting in Brazil: New contenders versus classical models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    346. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    347. Luca Onorante & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window," Papers 1410.7799, arXiv.org.
    348. Bo Zhang & Joshua C.C. Chan & Jamie L. Cross, 2018. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2018-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    349. Lei, Chengyao & Lu, Zhe & Zhang, Chengsi, 2015. "News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 644-653.
    350. Ho, Hsiao-Wei & Huang, Henry H. & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2014. "Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 159-169.
    351. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2021. "The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox," MPRA Paper 107403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    352. Monica Jain, 2013. "Perceived Inflation Persistence," Staff Working Papers 13-43, Bank of Canada.
    353. Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    354. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
    355. Julie Bennett & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 131-148.
    356. Mykola Pinchuk, 2022. "Monetary Uncertainty as a Determinant of the Response of Stock Market to Macroeconomic News," Papers 2212.04525, arXiv.org.
    357. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013. "Reverse Kalman filtering U.S. inflation with sticky professional forecasts," Working Papers 13-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    358. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2020. "The expectational effects of news in business cycles: Evidence from forecast data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 184-200.
    359. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries," Discussion Papers 76, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    360. Harun Mirza & Lidia Storjohann, 2014. "Making Weak Instrument Sets Stronger: Factor‐Based Estimation of Inflation Dynamics and a Monetary Policy Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 643-664, June.
    361. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    362. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    363. Anne Pedersen & Alex Weissensteiner & Rolf Poulsen, 2013. "Financial planning for young households," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 55-76, May.
    364. Capistrán Carlos & Constandse Christian & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "Using Seasonal Models to Forecast Short-Run Inflation in Mexico," Working Papers 2009-05, Banco de México.
    365. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    366. Raïsa Basselier & David de Antonio Liedo & Jana Jonckheere & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Can inflation expectations in business or consumer surveys improve inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Research 348, National Bank of Belgium.
    367. Guzman, Giselle C., 2010. "An inflation expectations horserace," MPRA Paper 36511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    368. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," Working Papers 22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    369. Goldstein, Nathan & Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 2017. "Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 86-90.
    370. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Forecasting growth and inflation in an enlarged euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 405-425.
    371. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    372. Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2020. "The Murphy Decomposition and the Calibration-Resolution Principle: A New Perspective on Forecast Evaluation," Papers 2005.01835, arXiv.org.
    373. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    374. In Choi & Seong Jin Hwang, 2012. "Forecasting Korean inflation," Working Papers 1202, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    375. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    376. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 553-567.
    377. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2021. "Better the Devil You Know: Improved Forecasts from Imperfect Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    378. Ekşi Ozan & Taş Bedri Kamil Onur & Orman Cüneyt, 2017. "Has the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbooks changed over time?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, June.
    379. Bin Chen & Kenwin Maung, 2020. "Time-varying Forecast Combination for High-Dimensional Data," Papers 2010.10435, arXiv.org.
    380. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    381. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
    382. In Choi & Hanbat Jeong, 2020. "Differencing versus nondifferencing in factor‐based forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 728-750, September.
    383. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2008. "Expected Inflation, Expected Stock Returns, and Money Illusion: What can we learn from Survey Expectations?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    384. Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
    385. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal Verbrugge, 2023. "Out of Bounds: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 559-576, March.
    386. Paul Hubert, 2014. "Disentangling qualitative and quantitative central bank influence," Sciences Po publications 2014-23, Sciences Po.
    387. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & van Rooij, Maarten & Teppa, Federica & de Vos, Klaas, 2017. "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-58.
    388. Christopher Herrington & Yash P. Mehra, 2008. "On the sources of movements in inflation expectations : a few insights from a VAR model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Spr), pages 121-146.
    389. Zhentao Shi & Liangjun Su & Tian Xie, 2020. "L2-Relaxation: With Applications to Forecast Combination and Portfolio Analysis," Papers 2010.09477, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    390. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    391. Saakshi Jha & Sohini Sahu, 2020. "Forecasting inflation for India with the Phillips Curve: Evidence from internet search data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2372-2379.
    392. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
    393. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 669, Central Bank of Chile.
    394. Shang, Hua & Yuan, Ping & Huang, Lin, 2016. "Macroeconomic factors and the cross-section of commodity futures returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 316-332.
    395. Modugno, Michele & Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and news decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1369-1384.
    396. Baetje, Fabian & Friedrici, Karola, 2016. "Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-43.
    397. Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    398. Tobias Fissler & Yannick Hoga, 2021. "Backtesting Systemic Risk Forecasts using Multi-Objective Elicitability," Papers 2104.10673, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    399. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
    400. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
    401. Yaniv Konchitchki & Yan Luo & Mary L. Z. Ma & Feng Wu, 2016. "Accounting-based downside risk, cost of capital, and the macroeconomy," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-36, March.
    402. Jan Prüser, 2021. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 481-499, April.
    403. Dan Li & Geng Li, 2021. "Whose Disagreement Matters? Household Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume [Belief dispersion in the stock market]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1859-1900.
    404. Konchitchki, Yaniv & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2014. "Accounting earnings and gross domestic product," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 76-88.
    405. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
    406. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
    407. Aristidou, Chrystalleni, 2018. "The meta-Phillips Curve: Modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 367-379.
    408. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    409. Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009. "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Working Papers 0906, Banco de España.
    410. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
    411. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank.
    412. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 519-544.
    413. Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
    414. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2016. "Term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates," Working Papers 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    415. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    416. Swinkels, Laurens, 2018. "Simulating historical inflation-linked bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-389.
    417. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    418. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    419. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    420. Nolte, Ingmar & Nolte, Sandra & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2019. "What determines forecasters’ forecasting errors?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 11-24.
    421. Ben Powell & Guy Nason & Duncan Elliott & Matthew Mayhew & Jennifer Davies & Joe Winton, 2018. "Tracking and modelling prices using web‐scraped price microdata: towards automated daily consumer price index forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(3), pages 737-756, June.
    422. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.
    423. Wu, Jingtao, 2009. "Three Bayesian econometric studies on forecast evaluation," ISU General Staff Papers 200901010800002984, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    424. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
    425. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.
    426. Man Wang & Kun Chen & Qin Luo & Chao Cheng, 2018. "Multi-Step Inflation Prediction with Functional Coefficient Autoregressive Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, May.
    427. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    428. Cecchetti, Stephen & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil & Schoenholtz, Kermit L., 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    429. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    430. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2018. "How do zero-coupon inflation swaps predict inflation rates in the euro area? Evidence of efficiency and accuracy on 1-year contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1451-1475, June.
    431. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2019. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Sciences Po publications 03, Sciences Po.
    432. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    433. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem O. Isah & Idris Ademuyiwa, 2017. "Testing for asymmetries in the predictive model for oil price-inflation nexus," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1797-1804.
    434. Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
    435. Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
    436. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2015. "Overcoming the Forecast Combination Puzzle: Lessons from the Time-Varying Effciency of Phillips Curve Forecasts of U.S. Inflation," Discussion Papers 2015-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    437. Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoul, 2014. "Inflation and Unemployment Forecasting with Genetic Support Vector Regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 471-487, September.
    438. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    439. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
    440. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Forecasting Indonesian Inflation Within An Inflation-Targeting Framework: Do Large-Scale Models Pay Off?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 423-436.
    441. Heaton, Chris, 2015. "Testing for multiple-period predictability between serially dependent time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 587-597.
    442. Chris Heaton & Natalia Ponomareva & Qin Zhang, 2020. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy: the simpler the better?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 139-167, January.
    443. El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    444. Attanasio, Orazio & Kovacs, Agnes & Molnar, Krisztina, 2017. "Euler Equations, Subjective Expectations and Income Shocks," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 5/2017, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    445. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
    446. Shahid IQBAL & Maqbool H. SIAL, 2016. "Projections of Inflation Dynamics for Pakistan: GMDH Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 536-559, September.
    447. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "Do professional forecasters trust in Taylor-type rules? -- Evidence from the Wall Street Journal poll," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 829-838, March.
    448. Агамбаева Саида // Agambayeva Saida & Конурбаева Наталья // Konurbayeva Natalya, 2022. "Финансовая грамотность и инфляционные ожидания домашних хозяйств // Financial literacy and inflation expectations of households," Working Papers #2022-7, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    449. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 2-29, January.
    450. Monica Jain, 2018. "Sluggish Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-39, Bank of Canada.
    451. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2022. "Correlation Based Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 112014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    452. de Zwart, G.J. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2008. "The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-007-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    453. Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2018. "Residual Inflation Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5289-5314, November.
    454. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Improving the predictability of commodity prices in US inflation: The role of coffee price," Working Papers 041, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    455. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    456. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2013. "Deflation Risk," NBER Working Papers 19238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    457. Yash P. Mehra, 2006. "Inflation uncertainty and the recent low level of the long bond rate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 92(Sum), pages 225-253.
    458. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.
    459. Lee, Changju & Ku, Seungmo & Cho, Poongjin & Chang, Woojin, 2019. "Explaining future market return and evaluating market condition with common preferred spread index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 921-934.
    460. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    461. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "Predicting US Inflation: Evidence from a New Approach," Working Papers 039, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    462. Hamid Baghestani, 2017. "Do US consumer survey data help beat the random walk in forecasting mortgage rates?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1343017-134, January.
    463. Moore, Bartholomew, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation in the new-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 323-337.
    464. Barria, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.
    465. Guzman, Giselle C., 2011. "The case for higher frequency inflation expectations," MPRA Paper 36656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    466. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    467. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    468. Gozluklu, Arie & Morin, Annaïg, 2019. "Stock vs. Bond yields and demographic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

  16. Min Wei & Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim, 2005. "TIPS: Taking Inflation Premium Seriously," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 363, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Steve Ambler, 2009. "Price‐Level Targeting And Stabilisation Policy: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 974-997, December.

  17. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014. "Information in the yield curve: A Macro-Finance approach," Working Paper Research 254, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Martins, Manuel M.F. & Afonso, António, 2010. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Working Paper Series 1276, European Central Bank.
    4. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
    5. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    6. Paolo Guarda & Philippe Jeanfils, 2012. "Macro-financial linkages: Evidence from country-specific VARs," BCL working papers 71, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    9. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The U.S. Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Working Papers 202069, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    11. Stock, James & Watson, Mark & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Tao Wu, 2001. "Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Koeda, Junko, 2013. "Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-188.
    14. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    15. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2008. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?," Working Paper Series 874, European Central Bank.
    16. Favero, Carlo A. & Sala, Luca & Niu, Linlin, 2007. "Term Structure Forecasting: No-Arbitrage Restrictions vs Large Information Set," CEPR Discussion Papers 6206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Boyan Jovanovic & Julien Prat, 2016. "Reputation Cycles," NBER Working Papers 22703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
    19. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society.
    20. Hännikäinen Jari, 2016. "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment," Working Papers 1606, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    21. Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2007. "Uncovering the U.S. Term Premium: An Alternative Route," Faculty Working Papers 12/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    22. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2023. "On illiquidity of an emerging sovereign bond market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    23. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    24. Howard Kung, 2014. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," 2014 Meeting Papers 560, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Dongho Song, 2016. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 915, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 19 Jul 2016.
    26. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    27. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
    28. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2006. "The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 203, Society for Computational Economics.
    29. Michiel De Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," International Finance Discussion Papers 993, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & TAKAOKA Sumiko, 2017. "No-arbitrage Determinants of Japanese Government Bond Yield and Credit Spread Curves," Discussion papers 17104, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    31. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    32. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    33. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    34. McMillan, David G., 2021. "When and why do stock and bond markets predict US economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 331-343.
    35. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2014. "Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Working Paper series 32_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    36. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    37. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Min Jeong Kim & Dohyoung Kwon, 2023. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy: an economic regime approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 136-147, March.
    39. Bautista, Rafaél & Riáscos, Álvaro & Suárez, Nicolás, 2007. "La aplicación de un modelo de factores a las curvas de rendimiento del mercado de deuda pública colombiano," Galeras. Working Papers Series 014, Universidad de Los Andes. Facultad de Administración. School of Management.
    40. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio, 2007. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 81-100, March.
    42. Chan, Kalok & Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Conditional co-skewness and safe-haven currencies: A regime switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 58-80.
    43. William F. Bassett & Mary Beth Chosak & John C. Driscoll & Egon Zakrajšek, 2012. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Zhenyu Wang & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models: arbitrage and pricing errors over contingent claims," Staff Reports 265, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    45. Inwon Jang & David Kim, 2009. "The Dynamics of the Credit Spread and Monetary Policy," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 109-131, May.
    46. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    47. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    48. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Information in Yield Spread Trades," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    49. Shi, Qi & Li, Bin, 2022. "Further evidence on financial information and economic activity forecasts in the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    50. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
    51. Karimalis, Emmanouil & Kosmidis, Ioannis & Peters, Gareth, 2017. "Multi yield curve stress-testing framework incorporating temporal and cross tenor structural dependencies," Bank of England working papers 655, Bank of England.
    52. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2017. "The term structure of credit spreads and business cycle in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 27-36.
    53. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    54. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2008. "Short-term interest rate futures as monetary policy forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    55. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
    56. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    57. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    58. Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2009. "Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 82-89, January.
    59. Lelo de Larrea Alejandra, 2020. "Forecast Comparison of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of Mexico for Different Specifications of the Affine Model," Working Papers 2020-01, Banco de México.
    60. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Term Premium as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator," Working Papers 201613, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    61. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    62. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    63. Mathias Moersch & Armin Pohl, 2011. "Predicting recessions with the term spread - recent evidence from seven countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1285-1288.
    64. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2018. "Multi-moment risk, hedging strategies, & the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 637-675.
    65. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
    66. Junko Koeda, 2011. "How Does Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? A Macro-Finance Approach Revisited," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-784, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    67. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2016. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 70489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term-Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
    69. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    70. Sushanta K Mallick & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2017. "Market volatility, monetary policy and the term premium," BIS Working Papers 606, Bank for International Settlements.
    71. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    72. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
    73. Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Phakawa Jeasakul & Romain Lafarguette & Mr. Adrian Alter & Alan Xiaochen Feng & Changchun Wang, 2019. "Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 2019/036, International Monetary Fund.
    74. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Staff Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada.
    75. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    76. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    77. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    78. N'yoma Diamond & Grant Perkins, 2022. "Using Intermarket Data to Evaluate the Efficient Market Hypothesis with Machine Learning," Papers 2212.08734, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    79. Bhansali, Vineer & Dorsten, Matthew P. & Wise, Mark B., 2009. "Asymmetric monetary policy and the yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1408-1425, December.
    80. Martijn Boons & Frans de Roon & Fernando M. Duarte & Marta Szymanowska, 2013. "Time-Varying Inflation Risk and Stock Returns," Staff Reports 621, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    81. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    82. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    83. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    84. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
    85. Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Working Papers 2007-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    86. Jakob Fiedler & Josef Ruzicka & Thomas Theobald, 2019. "The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles," IMK Working Paper 198-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    87. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Mele, Antonio, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock volatility and volatility premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 203-220.
    88. Gao, Feng & Xi He, Alex & He, Ping, 2018. "A theory of intermediated investment with hyperbolic discounting investors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 70-100.
    89. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2022. "The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    90. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    91. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Time-varying predictive content of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 211-222.
    92. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Cenk C. Karahan & Brian M. Lucey, 2020. "Oil Price Shocks and Yield Curve Dynamics in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 202036, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    93. Hardouvelis, Gikas & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    94. Hudepohl, Tom & van Lamoen, Ryan & de Vette, Nander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in stock markets: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    95. Boukhatem, Jamel & Sekouhi, Hayfa, 2017. "What does the bond yield curve tell us about Tunisian economic activity?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 295-303.
    96. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
    97. Orazio Di Miscia, 2005. "Term structure of interest models: concept and estimation problem in a continuous-time setting," Finance 0504017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    98. Yunxu Wang & Chi-Wei Su & Yuchen Zhang & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ & Qin Meng, 2023. "Effectiveness of Principal-Component-Based Mixed-Frequency Error Correction Model in Predicting Gross Domestic Product," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-14, September.
    99. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2012. "Risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 1013-1036, September.
    100. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time," Research Papers in Economics 2006:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    101. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
    102. Mönch, Emanuel, 2005. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Paper Series 544, European Central Bank.
    103. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Working Paper Series 1435, European Central Bank.
    104. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    105. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    106. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    107. Andrea Carriero & Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 253, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    108. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
    109. Andrea Ajello & Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk, 2012. "Core and 'Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series WP-2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    110. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    111. OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & TAKAOKA Sumiko, 2022. "Credit Default Swaps and Corporate Carbon Emissions in Japan," Discussion papers 22098, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    112. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
    113. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
    114. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    115. Azamat Abdymomunov, 2013. "Regime-switching measure of systemic financial stress," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 455-470, August.
    116. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
    117. Hördahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," Working Paper Series 2320, European Central Bank.
    118. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    119. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2016. "Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread," Working Papers 2016-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    120. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    121. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    122. Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
    123. Firdous Ahmad Shah & Lokenath Debnath, 2017. "Wavelet Neural Network Model for Yield Spread Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
    124. David Y. Aharon & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between the term structure of interest rates, bitcoin, and safe-haven currencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    125. Riza Demirer & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 687-707, October.
    126. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Staff Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
    127. Dionisios Chionis & Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, February.
    128. Olesya Grishchenko & Franck Moraux & Olga Pakulyak, 2020. "Fuel up with OATmeals! The case of the French nominal yield curve," Post-Print halshs-02980563, HAL.
    129. Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2015. "Pricing, dynamics, and determinants of illiquidity risks: International evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 124-147.
    130. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    131. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
    132. Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Vo, Xuan vinh, 2022. "COVID-19 related media sentiment and the yield curve of G-7 economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    133. Sheheryar Malik & Ms. TengTeng Xu, 2017. "Interconnectedness of Global Systemically-Important Banks and Insurers," IMF Working Papers 2017/210, International Monetary Fund.
    134. Xu Zhang, 2021. "Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases," Staff Working Papers 21-54, Bank of Canada.
    135. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working Papers 2007-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    136. Gupta, Rangan & Risse, Marian & Volkman, David A. & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "The role of term spread and pattern changes in predicting stock returns and volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test using over 250 years of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 391-405.
    137. Guidolin, Massimo & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Tortora, Andrea Donato, 2013. "Alternative econometric implementations of multi-factor models of the U.S. financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 87-111.
    138. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
    139. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    140. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of different monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003," Working Papers 5023, Economic History Society.
    141. Kaminska, Iryna, 2008. "A no-arbitrage structural vector autoregressive model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 357, Bank of England.
    142. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    143. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    144. Leo Krippner & Michelle Lewis, 2018. "Real-time forecasting with macro-finance models in the presence of a zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    145. Lu, Biao & Wu, Liuren, 2009. "Macroeconomic releases and the interest rate term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 872-884, September.
    146. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Multi-Lag Term Structure Models with Stochastic Risk Premia," Working Papers 2006-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    147. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    148. Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    149. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    150. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
    151. Doina Chichernea & Kershen Huang & Alex Petkevich, 2019. "Does maturity matter? The case of treasury futures volume," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1301-1321, October.
    152. Martina Makarieva, 2021. "Yield curve modelling and forecasting in an undeveloped financial market: The case of Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 61-83,84-10.
    153. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2011. "News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    154. Junko Koeda & Yosuke Kimura, 2021. "Government Debt Maturity in Japan: 1965 to the Present," Working Papers 2103, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    155. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2010. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 603-653, April.
    156. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2011. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers 012011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    157. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    158. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    159. Mollick, André Varella & Assefa, Tibebe Abebe, 2013. "U.S. stock returns and oil prices: The tale from daily data and the 2008–2009 financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-18.
    160. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2015. "The role of term structure in an estimated DSGE model with learning," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    161. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97, April.
    162. Éric Dubois, 2006. "Présentation générale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 1-9.
    163. John H. Cochrane, 2009. "Comment on "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 427-448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    164. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
    165. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
    166. Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Working Paper Series 1580, European Central Bank.
    167. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2021. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    168. Ferdinand Dreher & Johannes Gräb & Thomas Kostka, 2020. "From carry trades to curvy trades," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 758-780, March.
    169. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Choi, Jaewon & Goldstein, Itay, 2021. "Mutual fund flows and fluctuations in credit and business cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 84-108.
    170. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    171. Pyung Kun Chu, 2021. "Forecasting Recessions with Financial Variables and Temporal Dependence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, August.
    172. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    173. Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Donato Tortora, 2011. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate. Evidence from Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models of REIT Returns," Working Papers 416, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    174. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    175. Charles Leung, 2007. "Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 233-256, February.
    176. Chao, Shih-Wei, 2016. "Do economic variables improve bond return volatility forecasts?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 10-26.
    177. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    178. Michiel D. de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-028/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    179. Daniel R. Smith & Christophe Parignon, 2004. "Modeling Yield-Factor Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 307, Econometric Society.
    180. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    181. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
    182. Todd Henry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Activity Using the Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications for New Zealand, Australia and the US," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2259, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    183. Roman Sustek, 2021. "Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times," Discussion Papers 2122, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    184. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    185. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna, 2018. "Yield curve interactions with the macroeconomic factors during global financial crisis among Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-192.
    186. Levy, Antoine & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    187. Marcell Peter Granat & Gabor Neszveda & Dorottya Szabo, 2023. "An Empirical Analysis of the Predictive Power of European Yield Curves," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 22(3), pages 48-66.
    188. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Low Interest Rates and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve," Working Papers 20-24R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 21 Dec 2021.
    189. Troy Davig & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    190. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    191. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 691, European Central Bank.
    192. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Zijun Wang, 2010. "Conditional Coskewness in Stock and Bond Markets: Time-Series Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 2031-2049, November.
    193. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "Forecasting the Yield Curve Using Priors from No Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," Working Papers 612, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    194. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    195. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    196. Bjoern Schulte-Tillman & Mawuli Segnon & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "Financial-market volatility prediction with multiplicative Markov-switching MIDAS components," CQE Working Papers 9922, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    197. Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
    198. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    199. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
    200. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    201. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2021. "An Estimated Dsge Model With Learning Based On Term Structure Information," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1635-1665, October.
    202. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    203. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    204. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2010. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," MPRA Paper 34104, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2011.
    205. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    206. Li, Jing & Davis, George, 2017. "Rethinking cointegration and the expectation hypothesis of the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 177-189.
    207. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
    208. Hanwool Jang & Yena Song & Sungbin Sohn & Kwangwon Ahn, 2018. "Real Estate Soars and Financial Crises: Recent Stories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-12, December.
    209. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2020. "No-arbitrage determinants of credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    210. Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign yield curves," Working papers 352, Banque de France.
    211. Becker, Janis & Leschinski, Christian, 2018. "Directional Predictability of Daily Stock Returns," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-624, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    212. Archawa Paweenawat, 2017. "The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Emerging Economies: The Case of Thailand," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(2), pages 136-150, August.
    213. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
    214. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
    215. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Sufana, R., 2010. "International money and stock market contingent claims," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1727-1751, December.
    216. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    217. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    218. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 21/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    219. Ujjal Chatterjee, 2023. "Predicting economic growth: evidence from real-estate loans securitization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, March.
    220. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
    221. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-207, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    222. Deniz Sevinc & Edgar Mata Flores, 2021. "Macroeconomic and financial implications of multi‐dimensional interdependencies between OECD countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 741-776, January.
    223. García-Verdú Santiago, 2011. "On the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the Mexican Government," Working Papers 2011-18, Banco de México.
    224. Stan Hurn & Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi, 2016. ""Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2058, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    225. M. Collin, 2007. "The flattening of the yield curve : causes and economic policy implications," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 47-60, June.
    226. Gregory R. Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the Term Structure," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2895-2934.
    227. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Futures Contract Rates as Monetary Policy Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 109-145, June.
    228. Azamat Abdymomunov & Kyu Ho Kang & Ki Jeong Kim, 2014. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields Using Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    229. Muhammad Yasir & Sitara Afzal & Khalid Latif & Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary & Nazish Yameen Malik & Farhan Shahzad & Oh-young Song, 2020. "An Efficient Deep Learning Based Model to Predict Interest Rate Using Twitter Sentiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    230. Fuchs, Fabian U., 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 77-102.
    231. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Loublier, Alexis, 2010. "Epstein-Zin preferences and their use in macro-finance models: implications for optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1209, European Central Bank.
    232. Verdelhan, Adrien & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Lustig, Hanno, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    233. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2014. "Investors' and Central Bank's Uncertainty Embedded in Index Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(6), pages 1661-1716.
    234. Tyson Lamarra & Aaron Bruhn & Michael Miller, 2023. "Stochastic modelling of the home equity access scheme," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 48(3), pages 652-677, August.
    235. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    236. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    237. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.
    238. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
    239. Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin, 2012. "Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 0535, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    240. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    241. Francis X. Diebold, & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Aruoba, S. Boragan, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/31, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    242. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    243. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Commentary on \\"Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 271-282.
    244. Favero, Carlo A. & Söderström, Ulf & Kaminska, Iryna, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    245. Viral V. Acharya & Soumya Bhadury & Jay Surti, 2020. "Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 27411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    246. Ang, James & Smedema, Adam, 2011. "Financial flexibility: Do firms prepare for recession?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 774-787, June.
    247. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    248. Jan Bruha, 2011. "Retail Credit Premiums and Macroeconomic Developments," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 133-140, Czech National Bank.
    249. Cortés Espada Josué Fernando & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico," Working Papers 2008-10, Banco de México.
    250. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    251. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
    252. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    253. Zinna, Gabriele, 2014. "Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-22.
    254. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
    255. Kristoffer Nimark, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Real-time Signal Extraction from the Bond Market," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    256. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis, 2023. "Recessions and flattening of the yield curve (1960–2021): A two-way road under a regime switching approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 8-20.
    257. Boucher, C. & Jasinski, A. & Tokpavi, S., 2023. "Conditional mean reversion of financial ratios and the predictability of returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    258. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    259. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
    260. Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Ng, David, 2011. "A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 55-70, May.
    261. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    262. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    263. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
    264. Kuosmanen, Petri & Nabulsi, Nasib & Vataja, Juuso, 2015. "Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-379.
    265. Filipova, Kameliya & Audrino, Francesco & De Giorgi, Enrico, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes: Implications for the yield curve and bond pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 427-454.
    266. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    267. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2004. "Expectativas De Actividad Económica En Colombia Y Estructura A Plazo: Un Poco Más De Evidencia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(47), pages 126-160, December.
    268. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    269. Linlin Niu, 2013. "An Affine Term Structure Model with Auxiliary Stochastic Volatility-Covolatility," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    270. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: The Role of Decomposed Term-Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201680, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    271. Cremers, Martijn & Fleckenstein, Matthias & Gandhi, Priyank, 2021. "Treasury yield implied volatility and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 412-435.
    272. Dovern, Jonas & Ziegler, Christina, 2008. "Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    273. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
    274. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 27691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    275. Anne Lundgaard Hansen, 2018. "Volatility-Induced Stationarity and Error-Correction in Macro-Finance Term Structure Modeling," Discussion Papers 18-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    276. Alfred V Guender & Bernard Tolan, 2013. "The Centre Matters for the Periphery of Europe: The Predictive Ability of a GZ-Type Spread for Economic Activity in Europe," Working Papers in Economics 13/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    277. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    278. Johannes Hauptmann & Anja Hoppenkamps & Aleksey Min & Franz Ramsauer & Rudi Zagst, 2014. "Forecasting market turbulence using regime-switching models," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(2), pages 139-164, May.
    279. James A. Clouse, 2004. "Reading the minds of investors: an empirical term structure model for policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    280. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2012. "Bond Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 12/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    281. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
    282. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The predictive content of the term premium for GDP growth in Canada: Evidence from linear, Markov-switching and probit estimations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 80-91.
    283. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    284. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    285. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    286. Watson, John & Wickramanayake, J., 2012. "The relationship between aggregate managed fund flows and share market returns in Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 451-472.
    287. R. Vander Vennet & O. De Jonghe & L. Baele, 2004. "Bank risks and the business cycle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/264, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    288. David Coble & Pablo Pincheira, 2021. "Forecasting building permits with Google Trends," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3315-3345, December.
    289. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.
    290. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    291. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," Papers 1005.1326, arXiv.org.
    292. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
    293. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    294. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    295. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13168, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    296. Sanjay Singh & Neeraj Hatekar, 2018. "Macroeconomic shocks and evolution of term structure of interest rate: A dynamic latent factor approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 245-262, December.
    297. Kung, Howard, 2015. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 42-57.
    298. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
    299. Djuranovik, Leslie, 2014. "The Indonesian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.
    300. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    301. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    302. Dotsis, George, 2017. "The market price of risk of the variance term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 41-52.
    303. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank.
    304. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
    305. María O González & Frank Skinner & Samuel Agyei-Ampomah, 2013. "Term structure information and bond strategies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-74, July.
    306. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    307. Luciano Vereda & Hélio Lopes & Jessica Kubrusly & Adrian Pizzinga & Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim, 2014. "Yield Curve Forecasts and the Predictive Power of Macro Variables in a VAR Framework," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 377-393.
    308. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Spread position as a leading economic indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    309. Thomas A. Maurer & Thuy-Duong Tô & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2019. "Pricing Risks Across Currency Denominations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5308-5336, November.
    310. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    311. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    312. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Kang, Kyu Ho & Kim, Ki Jeong, 2016. "Can credit spreads help predict a yield curve?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-61.
    313. Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    314. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2007. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870-2003," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-404.
    315. Kiryoung LEE & Chanik JO, 2018. "Forecasting Chinese Business Cycle Using Long-term Interest Rate Comovements," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 118-134, December.
    316. Huseyin Ozturk, 2020. "The shape of sovereign yield curve in an emerging economy: Do macroeconomic or external factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 83-112, February.
    317. Angelidis, Timotheos & Sakkas, Athanasios & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2015. "Stock market dispersion, the business cycle and expected factor returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 265-279.
    318. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1389-1400, November.
    319. Cortés Espada Josué Fernando & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "An Affine Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico," Working Papers 2008-09, Banco de México.
    320. Fuchs, Fabian U., 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-42-20, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    321. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    322. Huseyin Kaya, 2013. "On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case," Working Papers 010, Bahcesehir University, Betam, revised Mar 2013.
    323. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    324. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    325. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
    326. Jonathan A Batten & Peter G Szilagyi, 2012. "Comments on Qianying Chen, Andrew Filardo, Dong He and Feng Zhu's paper "The impact of central bank balance sheet policies on the emerging economies"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 265-284, Bank for International Settlements.
    327. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2011. "Investors' and Central Bank's Uncertainty Embedded in Index Options," NBER Working Papers 16764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    328. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2017. "Towards an asymmetric long run equilibrium between stock market uncertainty and the yield spread. A threshold vector error correction approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 267-279.
    329. Farzan Aminian & E. Suarez & Mehran Aminian & Daniel Walz, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Data with Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 71-88, August.
    330. Constantin Anghelache & Cristina SACALÃ, 2016. "The analysis of correlation between the GDP and the Gross Income," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(9), pages 88-93, September.
    331. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
    332. Gideon Magnus, 2016. "A plausible model of yield curve dynamics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(2), pages 205-228, May.
    333. Marco Lombardi & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/241, International Monetary Fund.
    334. Jardine A. Husman & Ali Sakti & Dahnila Dahlan & Imam Wahyudi Indrawan & Zaäfri A. Husodo & Nur Dhani Hendranastiti & Muhammad Budi Prasetyo & Wahyu Jatmiko, 2022. "On The Development Of The Islamic Benchmark Rate: An Indonesian Case," Working Papers WP/04/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    335. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    336. Shi, Qi, 2023. "The RP-PCA factors and stock return predictability: An aligned approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    337. Umar, Zaghum & Aharon, David Y. & Esparcia, Carlos & AlWahedi, Wafa, 2022. "Spillovers between sovereign yield curve components and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    338. Zaghini, Andrea & Bencivelli, Lorenzo, 2012. "Financial innovation, macroeconomic volatility and the great moderation," MPRA Paper 41263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    339. Abdymomunov Azamat & Kang Kyu Ho, 2015. "The effects of monetary policy regime shifts on the term structure of interest rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 183-207, April.
    340. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2016. "Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-311.
    341. Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "With or without you: Do financial data help to forecast industrial production?," Ruhr Economic Papers 558, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    342. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
    343. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    344. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    345. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2015. "Prediction of Term Structure with Potentially Misspecified Macro-Finance Models near the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 85709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    346. Bent Jesper Christensen & Olaf Posch & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models Using Mixed Frequency Macro and Financial Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 5030, CESifo.
    347. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    348. Kao, Yi-Cheng & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Chen, Shikuan, 2013. "Testing the predictive power of the term structure without data snooping bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 546-549.
    349. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification in structural VAR models with different volatility regimes," Departmental Working Papers 2011-39, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    350. Alfred Guender & Bernard Tolan, 2017. "The predictive ability of a risk-adjusted yield spread for economic activity in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-27, February.
    351. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December.
    352. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    353. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    354. Ozili, Peterson K & Lay, Sok Heng & Syed, Aamir, 2023. "Impact of financial inclusion on economic growth in secular and religious countries," MPRA Paper 116413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    355. Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2007. "The Long-run Risk Model: Dynamics and Cyclicality of Interest Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 58, Institute for Financial Research.
    356. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator," IMK Working Paper 89-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    357. Arora Siddharth & Little Max A. & McSharry Patrick E., 2013. "Nonlinear and nonparametric modeling approaches for probabilistic forecasting of the US gross national product," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 395-420, September.
    358. Jones, Christopher S. & Tuzel, Selale, 2013. "Inventory investment and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 557-579.
    359. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society.
    360. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017. "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, August.
    361. Peter Spencer, 2004. "Affine Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The US Treasury Market 1961-99," Discussion Papers 04/16, Department of Economics, University of York, revised Jan 2006.
    362. Cortés Espada Josué Fernando & Ramos Francia Manuel & Torres García Alberto, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Mexican Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008-07, Banco de México.
    363. Asadi, Mehrad & Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert, 2023. "The nexus between oil and airline stock returns: Does time frequency matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    364. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.
    365. Kuosmanen, Petri & Rahko, Jaana & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 37-47.
    366. Miśkiewicz, Janusz, 2008. "Globalization — Entropy unification through the Theil index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6595-6604.
    367. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Out-of-sample bond risk premium predictions: A global common factor," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 155-173.
    368. David G. McMillan, 2021. "Predicting GDP growth with stock and bond markets: Do they contain different information?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3651-3675, July.
    369. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "A Regime Switching Macro-finance Model of the Term Structure," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0901, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    370. Brenner, Menachem & Pasquariello, Paolo & Subrahmanyam, Marti, 2009. "On the Volatility and Comovement of U.S. Financial Markets around Macroeconomic News Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1265-1289, December.
    371. Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang & Wang, Zijun, 2009. "The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 670-680, April.
    372. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

  18. Geert Bekaert & Min Wei & Yuhang Xing, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Egarch Oknan Bello & Óscar Gámez, 2007. "Inflación e incertidumbre inflacionaria en Nicaragua: una aplicación usando un modelo," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 243-263, julio-sep.
    3. de Truchis, Gilles & Dell’Eva, Cyril & Keddad, Benjamin, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-98.
    4. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
    5. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2019. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold After All?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 49-72, July-Dec.
    6. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "The term structure of interest rates, the expectations hypothesis and international financial integration: Evidence from Asian economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 679-689, October.
    7. Adeline Bachellerie & Jérôme Héricourt & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "From Various Degrees of Trade to Various Degrees of Financial Integration: What Do Interest Rates Have to Say?," Post-Print hal-00649936, HAL.
    8. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio, 2007. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 81-100, March.
    9. Charles Engel, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 19336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2011. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the equilibrium real exchange rate," Working Paper Series 1405, European Central Bank.
    11. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "On the Path to Old-Age Poverty - Assessing the Impact of the Funded Riester Pension," IMK Report 73e-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. Campbell, John Y & Viceira, Luis & White, Josh S., 2002. "Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 3463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Simos, Theodore, 2017. "Financial crises, exchange rate linkages and uncovered interest parity: Evidence from G7 markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 112-120.
    14. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
    15. Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "Another Look at Yield Spreads: The Role of Liquidity," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(4), pages 952-970, April.
    16. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Engel, Charles, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Economics Series 265, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    18. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2012. "Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 183-192.
    19. Geert Bekaert & George Panayotov, 2019. "Good Carry, Bad Carry," NBER Working Papers 25420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Rosen Valchev, 2015. "Exchange Rates and UIP Violations at Short and Long Horizons," 2015 Meeting Papers 1446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Common and idiosyncratic factors of the exchange risk premium in emerging European markets," Working Papers 2008_28, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    23. Munir A. Jalil B. & Martha Misas A., 2007. "Evaluación de pronósticos del tipo de cambio utilizando redes neuronales y funciones de pérdida asimétricas," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 219-241, julio-sep.
    24. M. Hadzi-Vaskov & C.J.M. Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics.
    25. Shimizu, Makoto, 2017. "Effect of net foreign assets on persistency of time-varying risk premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 255-265.
    26. Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Inflation Compensation and Inflation Expectations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 421, Central Bank of Chile.
    27. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
    28. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2012. "Common Factors Of The Exchange Risk Premium In Emerging European Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 71-85, December.
    29. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    30. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2014. "Testing uncovered interest rate parity using LIBOR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3708-3723, October.
    31. Antoine Bouveret, 2010. "Politiques économiques, dynamique et équilibre de long terme du taux de change," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3ku, Sciences Po.
    32. Khaled Khaled & Amel Belanes & Sandrine Kablan, 2018. "The regional pricing of risk: An empirical investigation of the MENA Region," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 751-760.
    33. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
    34. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    35. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "iCurrency?," Papers 1911.01272, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    36. Andrea Carriero, 2006. "Explaining US–UK Interest Rate Differentials: A Reassessment of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in a Bayesian Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 879-899, December.
    37. Pippenger, John E, 2010. "The Solution to the Forward-Bias and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6br3599r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    38. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
    39. Schepp, Zoltán, 2003. "Befektetői horizont és a „forwardrejtély” [The investor horizon and the ‘forward puzzle’]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 939-963.
    40. Guesmi, Khaled & Kablan, Sandrine & Belgacem, Aymen, 2015. "The regional pricing of risk: An empirical investigation of the MENA equity determinants," MPRA Paper 70271, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    41. Antonio Montanés & Marcos Sanso-Navarro, "undated". "Another look at long-horizon uncovered interest parity," Studies on the Spanish Economy 221, FEDEA.
    42. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2011. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers 012011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    43. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    44. Yin-Wong Cheung & Wenhao Wang, 2020. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Redux: Non- Uniform Effects," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    45. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    46. Shu Wu, 2007. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 423-442, March.
    47. Mehmet Altuntas, 2021. "The Interest Rate Parity in Fragile Five Countries: Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Breaks," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 327-349, July.
    48. Jorge Selaive ; Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Net Foreign Assets And Imperfect Financial Integration: An Empirical Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 90, Econometric Society.
    49. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, September.
    50. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Consumption Risk Premia in the Cross Section of Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1529-1566, August.
    51. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "Auf dem Weg in die Altersarmut - Bilanz der Einführung der kapitalgedeckten Riester-Rente," IMK Report 73-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    52. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    54. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2011. "A VAR analysis for the uncovered interest parity and the ex-ante purchasing power parity: the role of macroeconomic and financial information," Working Paper Series 1404, European Central Bank.
    55. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Expectations Hypothesis Tests in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 0703, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    56. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
    57. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Barbara Rossi, 2007. "Expectations hypotheses tests at Long Horizons," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 554-579, November.
    59. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    60. Andreas Stathopoulos & Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2017. "Nominal Exchange Rate Stationarity and Long-Term Bond Returns," 2017 Meeting Papers 1633, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    61. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Uncovered interest rate parity through the lens of fractal methods: Evidence from the European Union," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    62. Iryna Kaminska & Andrew Meldrum & James Smith, 2013. "A Global Model Of International Yield Curves: No‐Arbitrage Term Structure Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 352-374, October.
    63. Forti Grazzini, Caterina & Rieth, Malte, 2017. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Normal and Crisis Times," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168281, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    64. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2016. "Interest parity, cointegration, and the term structure: Testing in an integrated framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 281-294.
    65. Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2012. "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure Using a Three‐regime Threshold Unit Root VECM: An Application to the Swiss ‘Isle’ of Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 180-202, April.
    66. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    67. Pippenger, John, 2009. "The Forward-Bias Puzzle: A Solution Based on Covered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4dd1075r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    68. Öge Güney Pelin, 2018. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Turkish Evidence," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, August.
    69. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2499, Yale School of Management.
    70. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2009. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 77-125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    71. Pedro Elosegui & Guillermo Escudé & Lorena Garegnani & Juan Martín Sotes Paladino, 2007. "Un modelo económico pequeño para Argentina," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 265-303, julio-sep.
    72. Erdemlioglu, Deniz M, 2007. "A new Test of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 10787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Antoine Bouveret, 2010. "Economic policies, long run equilibrium and exchange rate dynamics [Politiques économiques, dynamique et équilibre de long terme du taux de change]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04097866, HAL.
    74. Ahmet Can Ýnci, 2007. "Currency and yield Co-integration between a developed and an emerging Country: The Case of Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 1-20.
    75. Arnaud Mehl & Lorenzo Cappiello, 2009. "Uncovered Interest Parity at Long Horizons: Evidence on Emerging Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 1019-1037, November.
    76. Brian Lucey & Grace Loring, 2012. "Forward Exchange Rate Biasedness across Developed and Developing Country Currencies - Do Observed Patterns Persist Out of Sample?Abstract:," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp404, IIIS.
    77. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel, 2011. "The yield curve in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 268-279.
    78. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Rappai & Zoltán Schepp, 2007. "Uncovering Yield Parity: A New Insight into the UIP Puzzle through the Stationarity of Long Maturity Forward Rates," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 84, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    79. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona & Nistor, Costel, 2009. "Analysis of the dynamic relation between the currency rates and the interest rates from Romania and euro area before and during the financial crisis," MPRA Paper 41744, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2010.
    80. Pippenger, John E, 2009. "The Forward-Bias Puzzle: A Solution Based on Covered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt05d0t24b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    81. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    82. Ahmet Ugur & Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk, 2014. "Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(51), pages 111-136, March.
    83. Jorge Andrés Muñoz Mendoza & Carmen Lissette Veloso Ramos & Sandra María Sepúlveda Yelpo & Carlos Leandro Delgado Fuentealba & Edinson Edgardo Cornejo Saavedra, 2022. "Exchange Markets and Stock Markets Integration in Latin-America," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(3), pages 1-24, Julio - S.
    84. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.
    85. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2010. "Structural breaks and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: evidence from Central European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 757-774, January.
    86. Menzie D. Chinn & Saad Quayyum, 2012. "Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity Re-Assessed," NBER Working Papers 18482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    87. Loring, Grace & Lucey, Brian, 2013. "An analysis of forward exchange rate biasedness across developed and developing country currencies: Do observed patterns persist out of sample?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 14-28.
    88. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
    89. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    90. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.
    91. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Articles

  1. Jane Ihrig & Elizabeth Klee & Canlin Li & Min Wei & Joe Kachovec, 2018. "Expectations about the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 341-391, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King & Min Wei, 2016. "Macroeconomic Sources of Recent Interest Rate Fluctuations," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Min Wei & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Reverse Regressions And Long‐Horizon Forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 353-371, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Chernov, Mikhail & Bauer, Michael, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 16274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Erik Vogt, 2019. "Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1931-1973, August.
    4. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2019. "Deconstructing the yield curve," Staff Reports 884, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.
    6. Faten Ben Bouheni & Manish Tewari, 2023. "Common risk factors and risk–return trade-off for REITs and treasuries," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 374-395, September.
    7. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    8. Jiang, Zhengyang, 2021. "US Fiscal cycle and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 91-106.
    9. Bansal, Naresh & Stivers, Chris, 2022. "Bond risk’s role in the equity risk-return tradeoff," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Hsu, Alex & Tamoni, Andrea, 2020. "Fiscal policy driven bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 53-73.
    11. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.

  5. Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2013. "Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Progarms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 3-39, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Ippolito, Filippo & Ozdagli, Ali K. & Perez-Orive, Ander, 2018. "The transmission of monetary policy through bank lending: The floating rate channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-71.
    2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Seth Carpenter & Jane Ihrig & Elizabeth Klee & Daniel Quinn & Alexander Boote, 2015. "The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Earnings: A Primer and Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 237-283, March.
    4. Ethan Struby & Michael F. Connolly, 2022. "Shadow Rate Models and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-03, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides, 2021. "The Power of Central Bank Balance Sheets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 39, pages 35-54, November.
    6. Kyungmin Kim & Thomas Laubach & Min Wei, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    9. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Orphanides, Athanasios & Hofmann, Boris & Lombardi, Marco & Mojon, Benoit, 2021. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a low interest rate world," CEPR Discussion Papers 16411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Bua, Giovanna & Dunne, Peter G. & Sorbo, Jacopo, 2019. "Money Market Funds and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Belke, Angar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2017. "The effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 335-349.
    13. Paul Glasserman & Amit Sirohi & Allen Zhang, 2017. "The effect of “regular and predictable” issuance on Treasury bill financing," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-1, pages 43-56.
    14. Massimo Guidolin & Alexei G. Orlov & Manuela Pedio, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Corporate Bonds under Regime Shifts," Working Papers 562, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    15. Tobias S. Blattner & Michael A. S. Joyce, 2020. "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1361-1395, September.
    16. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2016. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper Series WP16-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    17. Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee & Canlin Li & Brett Schulte & Min Wei, 2012. "Expectations about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the term structure of interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
    19. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 26002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Farmer, Roger, 2012. "Qualitative Easing: How it Works and Why it Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 9153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Simon Gilchrist & Egon ZakrajŠEk, 2013. "The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs on Corporate Credit Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 29-57, December.
    23. Thomas B. King, 2013. "A Portfolio-Balance Approach to the Nominal Term Structure," Working Paper Series WP-2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    24. Meixing Dai & Frédéric Dufourt & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Large Scale Asset Purchases with Segmented Mortgage and Corporate Loan Markets," Working Papers halshs-00842279, HAL.
    25. Bluford H. Putnam, 2013. "Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 1-7, January.
    26. Saroj Bhattarai & Christopher J. Neely, 2016. "An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2016-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 May 2020.
    27. Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko & Ms. Elena Loukoianova, 2015. "The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures by the Systemic Four on Global Liquidity and Monetary Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2015/287, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Plazzi, Alberto, 2020. "Does monetary policy impact international market co-movements?," SAFE Working Paper Series 276, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    29. Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2021. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    30. Nao Sudo & Masaki Tanaka, 2021. "Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1719-1755, October.
    31. Roberto A. De Santis & Fédéric Holm‐Hadulla, 2020. "Flow Effects of Central Bank Asset Purchases on Sovereign Bond Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1467-1491, September.
    32. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    33. Ramaprasad Bhar & Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2015. "The impact of large-scale asset purchases on the S&P 500 index, long-term interest rates and unemployment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(55), pages 6010-6018, November.
    34. Franck Martin & Jiangxingyun Zhang, 2017. "Impact of QE on European sovereign bond market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2017-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    35. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2015. "On the (De)Stabilizing Effect of Public Debt in a Ramsey Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Post-Print hal-01457303, HAL.
    36. Russell Barnett & Konrad Zmitrowicz, 2018. "Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium," Discussion Papers 18-7, Bank of Canada.
    37. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2018. "US Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Pelizzon, Loriana & Sottocornola, Matteo, 2018. "The impact of monetary policy iInterventions on the insurance industry," SAFE Working Paper Series 204, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    39. Williams, John C., 2013. "A defense of moderation in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 137-150.
    40. Motto, Roberto & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo, 2015. "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1864, European Central Bank.
    41. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," IMES Discussion Paper Series 15-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    42. Putnam, Bluford H., 2013. "Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-7.
    43. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2014. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    44. Gilchrist, Simon & López-Salido, J David & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 9971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2022. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Working Papers 301, Bank of Greece.
    46. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2016. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Working Paper Series 324, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    47. Laséen, Stefan, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases: Insights from quantitative easing auctions of government bonds," Working Paper Series 419, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    48. Andras Lengyel & Massimo Giuliodoril, 2020. "Demand shocks for public debt in the Eurozone," Working Papers 674, DNB.
    49. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    50. Lutz, Chandler, 2015. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 89-105.
    51. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Price Stability, and Equilibrium Bond Yields: Success and Consequences : a speech at the High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, And Volatility, co-sponsored by the Bank fo," Speech 1102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    52. Hayashi, Fumio, 2018. "Computing equilibrium bond prices in the Vayanos-Vila model," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 181-195.
    53. De Santis, Roberto A. & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric, 2017. "Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 2052, European Central Bank.
    54. Bank for International Settlements, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases in response to the Covid-19 crisis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 68, december.
    55. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2020. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    56. Fabian Eser & Wolfgang Lemke & Ken Nyholm & Sören Radde & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2023. "Tracing the Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program on the Yield Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 359-422, August.
    57. Zhaogang Song & Haoxiang Zhu, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Richard Finlay & Dmitry Titkov & Michelle Xiang, 2022. "The Yield and Market Function Effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bond Purchases," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    59. Caio Almeida & Axel Simonsen & José Valentim Vicente, 2012. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Working Papers Series 288, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    60. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2013. "Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    61. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2018. "Quantitative easing and sovereign bond yields: a global perspective," Working Papers 253, Bank of Greece.
    62. P. Andrade & C. Cahn & H. Fraisse & J-S. Mésonnier, 2015. "Can the Provision of Long-Term Liquidity Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem's LTROs," Working papers 540, Banque de France.
    63. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    64. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D'Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    65. Ashima Goyal, 2019. "Price Discovery in Indian Government Securities Market, Monetary Management and the Cost of Government Borrowing," Working Papers id:13027, eSocialSciences.
    66. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy : a speech at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California, January 19, 2017," Speech 935, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    67. Jeff W. Huther & Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2017. "The Federal Reserve's Portfolio and its Effect on Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    68. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2013. "The ins and outs of LSAPs," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    69. Juan Carlos Medina Guirado, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and credit market activity," Estudios Regionales en Economía, Población y Desarrollo. Cuadernos de Trabajo de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez. 57, Cuerpo Académico 41 de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, revised 04 Jan 2020.
    70. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    71. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Risk-Taking Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Bank Lending," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-24, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Apr 2019.
    72. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    73. Hess T. Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2019. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    74. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    75. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    76. James Costain & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2022. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Working Papers 2223, Banco de España.
    77. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/066, International Monetary Fund.
    78. Richard Finlay & Dmitry Titkov & Michelle Xiang, 2023. "The Yield and Market Function Effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bond Purchases," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 359-384, September.
    79. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    80. Katharina Plessen-Mátyás & Christoph Kaufmann & Julian von Landesberger, 2023. "Funding Behavior of Debt Management Offices and the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Program," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(4), pages 339-399, October.
    81. Michael T. Kiley, 2013. "Monetary policy statements, Treasury yields, and private yields: before and after the zero lower bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    82. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    83. Mark A. Carlson & Burcu Duygan-Bump, 2018. "“Unconventional” Monetary Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy : A Perspective from the U.S. in the 1920s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    84. Jarrow, Robert A., 2013. "The zero-lower bound on interest rates: Myth or reality?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 151-156.
    85. Junko Koeda, 2015. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns in Zero-Lower Bound and Normal Environments: Evidence from Japan," Working Papers 1506, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    86. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    87. Huseyin Ozturk, 2020. "The shape of sovereign yield curve in an emerging economy: Do macroeconomic or external factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 83-112, February.
    88. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    89. Emily Greenwald & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Josh Younger, 2023. "Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Papers 2315, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    90. James Morley, 2016. "Macro-Finance Linkages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 698-711, September.
    91. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2020. "Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    92. Giuseppe Grande & Adriana Grasso & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s asset purchases at the lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 541, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    93. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    94. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2018. "Quantitative easing auctions of Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 103-124.
    95. Hanson, Samuel G., 2014. "Mortgage convexity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 270-299.
    96. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    97. Scott Mixon & Tugkan Tuzun, 2018. "Price Pressure and Price Discovery in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    98. Stanley Fischer, 2015. "Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet : a speech at the 2015 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, New York, February 2," Speech 837, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    99. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2017. "The impact of EMU on bond yield convergence: Evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 206-222.
    100. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    101. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    102. Plessen-Mátyás, Katharina & Kaufmann, Christoph & von Landesberger, Julian, 2021. "Funding behaviour of debt management offices and the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Working Paper Series 2552, European Central Bank.
    103. Han Chen & James A. Clouse & Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2014. "The Federal Reserve's Tools for Policy Normalization in a Preferred Habitat Model of Financial Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    104. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Response of Sovereign Bond Yields to U.S. Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 8, pages 257-283, Central Bank of Chile.
    105. Hess Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2020. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Current Policy Toolkit," CARF F-Series CARF-F-483, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

  6. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

    Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.