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Citations of
Allan Timmermann

For current contact information and a more complete listing of works, please see here

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Working papers

  1. Marco Aiolfi & Allan Timmermann & Luis Catão, 2006. "Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 06/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Luis A. V. Catao & Ana Fostel & Sandeep Kapur, 2008. "Persistent Gaps and Default Traps," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0803, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
    3. Anoop Singh, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility: The Policy Lessons from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/166, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    4. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/22, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Jeromino Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

  2. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multi-category Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0648, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]

  3. Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    2. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    3. Martin Schneider & Christian Ragacs, 2009. "Why did we fail to predict GDP during the last cycle? A breakdown of forecast errors for Austria," Working Papers 151, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    4. Simon Johnson & Jonathan David Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," IMF Working Papers 07/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Roland Döhrn, 2006. "Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors?," RWI Discussion Papers 0051, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
    6. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]

  4. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 3, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon Potter & Michael Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]

  5. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Testable Implications of Forecast Optimality," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/485, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 638, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    3. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss," Working Papers w0092, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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    4. Nazaria Solferino & Robert J. Waldmann, 2008. "Predicting the Signs of Forecast Errors," CEIS Research Paper 135, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Nov 2008. [Downloadable!]
    5. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004. "Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists," Working Paper Series 004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    6. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers 2008-55, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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    8. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function," Working papers 09-237, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    10. George A. Christodoulakis, 2005. "The European Union GDP Forecast Rationality under Asymmetric Preferences," Working Papers 30, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    11. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "Stock market volatility and the Great Moderation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    12. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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    13. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

  7. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Term Structure of Risk Under Alternative Econometric Specifications," CEPR Discussion Papers 4645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Cited by:

    1. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Discussion Papers 2008-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Chollete, Lorán & Heinen, Andréas & Valdesogo, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula," Discussion Papers 2008/3, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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    3. C. James Hueng & Ruey Yau, 2006. "Investor preferences and portfolio selection: is diversification an appropriate strategy?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 255-271, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Investing for the long-run in European real estate," Working Papers 2006-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/02, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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    6. Markus Haas, 2007. "Volatility Components and Long Memory-Effects Revisited," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(2), pages 1411-1411. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    8. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Sandeep Kapur & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium," Finance 0408001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Gehrig, Thomas P. & Lütje, Torben & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Bonus Payments and Fund Managers' Behavior: Trans-Atlantic Evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-411, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Opazo, Luis & Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2009. "The long and the short of emerging market debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5056, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]

  9. Massimo Guidolin, University of Virginia & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions under Multivariate Regime Switching," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 349, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Alexandre & Vasco J. Gabriel & Pedro Bação, 2007. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio Under Asymmetric Adjustment," NIPE Working Papers 15/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "Simulating Stock Returns Under Switching Regimes - A New Test of Market Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 5614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    4. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Completion time structures of stock price movements," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-326, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, B. & Pesaran, M.H., 2007. "Modelling Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate t Distribution," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0734, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Henk C. Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan P. Verbruggen, 2004. "A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    3. Bahram Pesaran & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate t Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    4. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93. [Downloadable!]
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Market Efficiency Today," IEPR Working Papers 05.41, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    6. Pesaran, M Hashem & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2005. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi-Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 5279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2004. "Automated Discovery in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1469, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 234, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production with Automated Procedures," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 177, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    3. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss," Working Papers w0092, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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    4. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 112, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Andrew Patton, 2006. "Volatility Forecast Comparison using Imperfect Volatility Proxies," Research Paper Series 175, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    6. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Testable Implications of Forecast Optimality," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/485, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    7. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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    8. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Shrinkage Based Tests of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 376, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    9. Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    10. Timmermann, Allan G, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  12. Catão, Luis A. V. & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Cited by:

    1. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2006. "The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?," Working Papers 06-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2005. "International Stock Return Comovements," Working Papers 06-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
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    3. John Ammer & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "Cash flows and discount rates, industry and country effects, and co-movement in stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 818, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

  13. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching," CEPR Discussion Papers 4649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Cited by:

    1. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2006. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures for Predictive Inference Based on Recursive Estimation Schemes," Departmental Working Papers 200618, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Bootstrap Procedures for Recursive Estimation Schemes With Applications to Forecast Model Selection," Departmental Working Papers 200418, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2008. "Multivariate Fractionally Integrated APARCH Modeling of Stock Market Volatility: A multi-country study," Working Papers 0472, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    2. Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2009. "On Marginal Likelihood Computation in Change-point Models," Cahiers de recherche 0942, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
    3. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2006. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Working Paper Series 196, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    6. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Detecting Multiple Changes in Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(3), pages 1370-1370. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. William Brock & Steven Durlauf & Kenneth West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    8. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168. [Downloadable!]
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    10. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90. [Downloadable!]
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    12. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 638, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    13. Jennifer L. Castle & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett & David F. Hendry, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    14. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2008. "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Random Level Shifts: Theory and Applications to S&P 500 and NASDAQ Return Indices," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-007, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    15. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points," Staff Reports 196, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    16. Sancetta, A. & Nikanrova, A., 2005. "Forecasting and Prequential Validation for Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0516, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    17. Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    18. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    19. Kyongwook Choi & Wei-Choun Yu & Eric Zivot, 2008. "Long Memory versus Structural Breaks in Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers UWEC-2008-20, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    20. David Ardia, 2007. "Bayesian Estimation of a Markov-Switching Threshold Asymmetric GARCH Model with Student-t Innovations," DQE Working Papers 6, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 08 Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    21. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    22. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior elicitation in multiple change-point models," Staff Reports 197, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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    3. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90. [Downloadable!]
    4. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 7008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    5. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Timmermann, A., 2009. "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0901, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    6. Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," NBER Working Papers 11487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    7. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    8. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/31, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]

  16. Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0306, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2008. "Adaptive pointwise estimation in time-inhomogeneous time-series models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Gutierrez, Luciano & Erickson, Kenneth & Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "The Present Value Model, Farmland Prices and Structural Breaks," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24702, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
    3. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    4. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
    5. Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," NBER Working Papers 11487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    6. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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    7. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487. [Downloadable!]
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    8. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    9. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    10. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predective Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests," Departmental Working Papers 200423, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    11. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

  17. Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Stan Hurn & Ralf Becker, 2006. "Testing for nonlinearity in mean in the presence of heteroskedasticity," Stan Hurn Discussion Papers 2006-02, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 234, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Adrian Pagan & Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks. Working paper #7," NCER Working Paper Series 7, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
    4. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Testable Implications of Forecast Optimality," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/485, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    5. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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    6. Boriss Siliverstovs & Tom Engsted & Niels Haldrup, 2003. "Long-Run Forecasting in Multicointegrated Systems," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 381, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

  18. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002. "Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability," FMG Discussion Papers dp412, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Patrick McGlenchy & Paul Kofman, 2004. "Structurally Sound Dynamic Index Futures Hedging," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 80, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    2. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2008. "Multivariate Fractionally Integrated APARCH Modeling of Stock Market Volatility: A multi-country study," Working Papers 0472, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    3. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, . "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    4. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Bradley S. Paye & Allan Timmermann, 2002. "How stable are Financial Prediction Models? Evidence from US and International Stock Market Data," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-13, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    8. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
    12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    15. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A, 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    17. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

  19. Blake, David & Timmermann, Allan G, 2002. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Characterizing Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," International Finance 0405005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    2. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregor H & Schneider, Martin, 2006. "Global Private Information in International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Nadima El-Hassan & Paul Kofman, 2003. "Tracking Error and Active Portfolio Management," Research Paper Series 98, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    4. Manuel Ammann & Andreas Zingg, 2008. "Investment Performance of Swiss Pension Funds and Investment Foundations," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(II), pages 153-195, June. [Downloadable!]

  20. Granger, Clive & Timmermann, Allan G, 2002. "Efficient Market Hypothesis and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14771, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
    3. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  21. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2001. "Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in General Equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 279, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2005. "Multifrequency News and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in general equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 157, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    5. Silvia Goncalves & Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Predictable dynamics in the S&P 500 index options implied volatility surface," Working Papers 2005-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  22. Allan Timmerman & Massimo Guidolin, 2001. "Option prices and implied volatility dynamics under Bayesian learning," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 P3, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

    Cited by:

    1. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels & Éric Renault, 2004. "The Econometrics of Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-04, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    2. Sadayuki Ono, 2007. "Option Pricing under Stochastic Volatility and Trading Volume," Discussion Papers 07/05, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    3. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 1998. "Option Prices with Uncertain Fundamentals: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Implied Volatilities," CRSP working papers 485, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    4. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "Automated Inference and the Future of Econometrics: A comment," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf04025, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Éric Renault, 2001. "Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent Variables (Note : New version February 2002) / Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent Varia," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-02, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]

  23. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 2001. "Forecast Evaluation with Shared Data Sets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14771, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Gael M. Martin & Andrew Reidy & Jill Wright, 2009. "Does the option market produce superior forecasts of noise-corrected volatility measures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 77-104. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  24. Perez-Quiros, G. & Timmermann, A., 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities," Papers 58, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
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    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Discussion Papers 2008-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Anthony S. Tay & Aamir R. Hashmi, 2004. "Global and Regional Sources of Risk in Equity Markets: Evidence from Factor Models with Time-Varying Conditional Skewness," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 634, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    6. Monica Billio & Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2006. "Granger-causality in Markov Switching Models," Working Papers 2006_20, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    8. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios, 2001. "Spectral based methods to identify common trends and common cycles," Working Paper Series 062, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    9. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    10. Martin Hess, 2006. "Timing and diversification: A state-dependent asset allocation approach," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 189-204, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. David Ardia, 2007. "Bayesian Estimation of a Markov-Switching Threshold Asymmetric GARCH Model with Student-t Innovations," DQE Working Papers 6, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 08 Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    12. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2003. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-38, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  25. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1216, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Torben G. Andersen & Dobrislav Dobrev & Ernst Schaumburg, 2009. "Duration-Based Volatility Estimation," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-034, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    2. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    3. Akifumi Isogai & Satoru Kanoh & Toshifumi Tokunaga, 2004. "An Extension of the Markov-Switching Model with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities: Bull-Bear Analysis of the Japanese Stock Market," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-43, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    4. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    5. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multi-category Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0648, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    7. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
    8. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    9. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46. [Downloadable!]
    10. George Woodward & Heather Anderson, 2003. "Does Beta React to Market Conditions? Estimates of Bull and Bear Betas using a Nonlinear Market Model with an Endogenous Threshold Parameter," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    11. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Completion time structures of stock price movements," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-326, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Eric Girardin & Zhenya Liu, 2003. "The Chinese Stock Market: A Casino with 'Buffer Zones'?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 57-70, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  26. Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes - a new test of market efficiency," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "The Contagion Effect Between the Volatilities of the NASDAQ-100 and the IT.CA :A Univariate and A Bivariate Switching Approach," Econometrics 0307002, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    8. Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Working Papers 0322, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    10. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Managing international portfolios with small capitalization stocks," Working Papers 2007-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    11. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    12. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "New Technology Stock Market Indexes Contagion: A VAR-dccMVGARCH Approach," Econometrics 0307003, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    13. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models," NIPE Working Papers 2/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    14. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    15. Allan Timmerman & Luis Catão, 2003. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," IMF Working Papers 03/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Working Papers 2005-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    19. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    20. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Frömmel, Michael, 2006. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries' Exchange Rates," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-333, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Size and value anomalies under regime shifts," Working Papers 2005-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    24. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

  27. Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1999. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp335, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. David McMillan, 2004. "Non-linear predictability of UK stock market returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    2. Andrew Ang & Li Gu & Yael V. Hochberg, 2006. "Is IPO Underperformance a Peso Problem?," NBER Working Papers 12203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Peter F. Christoffersen, . "Dating the Turning Points of Nordic Business Cycles," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    4. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 15-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    5. Michael Brennan & Ashley Wang & Yihong Xia, 2003. "Estimation and Test of a Simple Model of Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1011, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    6. Abbigail Chiodo & Massimo Guidolin & Michael T. Owyang & Makoto Shimoji, 2003. "Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications," Working Papers 2003-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    7. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    8. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-111, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155. [Downloadable!]
    12. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Pandey I M, 2005. "What Drives the Shareholer Value?," IIMA Working Papers 2005-09-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department. [Downloadable!]
    14. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Gian Luca Clementi & Hugo Hopenhagn, 2004. "A Theory of Financing Constraints and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 04-25, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Covas, Francisco & Den Haan, Wouter, 2007. "The Role of Debt and Equity Finance over the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    17. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
    19. Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 561, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    21. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231. [Downloadable!]
    22. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    23. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Managing international portfolios with small capitalization stocks," Working Papers 2007-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    24. Michael Ehrmann, 2004. "Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission – Evidence from German Business Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    25. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan G. Timmermann, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Working Paper Series 058, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    26. Allan Timmerman & Luis Catão, 2003. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," IMF Working Papers 03/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    27. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," NBER Working Papers 9509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    28. Johann Scharler, 2004. "Understanding the Stock Market's Response to Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 93, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    29. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    30. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Size and value anomalies under regime shifts," Working Papers 2005-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    31. Allan Timmermann, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-02, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    32. Stephen E. Satchell & Shaun A. Bond, 2004. "Asymmetry, Loss Aversion and Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 160, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    33. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    34. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    35. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Model Instability and Choice of Observation Window," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  28. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Model Instability and Choice of Observation Window," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    4. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

  29. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "The Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp304, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Edwin D. Maberly & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2000. "Closing the question on the continuation of turn-of-the-month effects: evidence from the S&P 500 Index futures contract," Working Paper 2000-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    2. Philip Kostov & Seamus McErlean, 2004. "Estimating the probability of large negative stock market," Finance 0409011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  30. Allan Timmermann, 1998. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices," FMG Discussion Papers dp311, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Smith, Aaron, 2004. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 11974, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Abbigail Chiodo & Massimo Guidolin & Michael T. Owyang & Makoto Shimoji, 2003. "Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications," Working Papers 2003-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    4. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-25, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    7. Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 561, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2005. "Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence," Working Papers 11976, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Massimiliano De Santis, 2005. "Movements in the Equity Premium: Evidence from a Bayesian Time-Varying VAR," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 62, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    10. Hyytinen, Ari, 1999. "Stock Return Volatility on Scandinavian Stock Markets and the Banking Industry," Research Discussion Papers 19/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    11. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Pietro Veronesi, . "Belief-dependent Utilities, Aversion to State-Uncertainty and Asset Prices,”," CRSP working papers 529, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    15. Juan M. Londoño & Marta Regulez & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Another Look to the Price-Dividend Ratio: A Markov-Switching Approach," DFAEII Working Papers 200809, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    16. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Model Instability and Choice of Observation Window," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  31. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann & David Blake, 1998. "The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Brown, 1999. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-077, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Qiang Bu & Nelson Lacey, 2009. "On understanding mutual fund terminations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 80-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Carree, M.A., 2000. "Interest and Hazard Rates of Russian Saving Banks," Research Paper ERS-2000-26-STR Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    4. Kozo Kiyota & Miho Takizawa, 2006. "The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan," Discussion papers 06033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  32. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1998. "Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-16, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Edwin D. Maberly & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2000. "Closing the question on the continuation of turn-of-the-month effects: evidence from the S&P 500 Index futures contract," Working Paper 2000-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    2. Andrew Patton, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Length," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-17, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    3. Philip Kostov & Seamus McErlean, 2004. "Estimating the probability of large negative stock market," Finance 0409011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    4. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Real Time Econometrics’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0432, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  33. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1997. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-31, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14771, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Coe, P. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2000. "The Cost Efficiency of UK Debt Management: A Recursive Modelling Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0005, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Spyros Skouras, 2001. "Decisionmetrics: A Decision-Based Approach to Econometric Modeling," Working Papers 01-11-064, Santa Fe Institute.
      Other versions:
    4. Marquering, W. & Verbeek, M., 2000. "The economic value of predicting stock index returns and volatility," Discussion Paper 78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    5. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Giampiero M. Gallo & Yongmiao Hong & Tae-Why Lee, 2001. "Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Stock Returns," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
    7. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "An Unbiased and Powerful Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2001-06, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    8. Edwin D. Maberly & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2000. "Closing the question on the continuation of turn-of-the-month effects: evidence from the S&P 500 Index futures contract," Working Paper 2000-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    9. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    10. M. A. H. Dempster & C. M. Jones, 2002. "Can channel pattern trading be profitably automated?," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-301, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. Brian M. Lucey, 2004. "Robust estimates of daily seasonality in the Irish equity market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 517-523, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Stephan Schulmeister, . "Profitability and Price Effects of Technical Currency Trading," WIFO Working Papers 140, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
    13. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-08, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    14. Zwart, G.J. de & Markwat, T.D. & Swinkels, L. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2007. "The Economic Value of Fundamental and Technical Information in Emerging Currency Markets," Research Paper ERS-2007-096-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2009. "Predictability of equity models," Textos para discussão 176, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    17. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Joshua M. Ulrich, 2007. "The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Marquering, W.A. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2001. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Research Paper ERS-2001-75-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    19. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
    20. Mark Grinblatt & Tobias Moskowitz, 1999. "The Cross Section of Expected Returns and its Relation to Past Returns: New Evidence," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1100, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Christopher J. Neely, 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and central bank intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading rule profits," Working Papers 2000-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    22. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Robust tests of predictive accuracy," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(2), pages 161-184. [Downloadable!]
    23. C.L. Dunis & Jason Laws & Ben Evans, 2006. "Trading futures spreads: an application of correlation and threshold filters," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 903-914, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    24. Spyros Skouras, 1998. "Financial Returns and Efficiency as seen by an Artificial Technical Analyst," Finance 9808001, EconWPA, revised 24 Aug 1998. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    25. Eric Ghysels & João Pereira, 2003. "On Portfolio Choice, Liquidity, and Short Selling: A Nonparametric Investigation," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-27, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    26. Foort Hamelink, 2001. "Nonlinear analysis for forecasting currencies: are they useful to the portfolio manager?," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 335-355, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    27. Joseph P & Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Formalized Data Snooping Based on Generalized Error Rates," IEW - Working Papers iewwp259, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    29. B. Carmichael & L. Samson, 2003. "Expected returns and economic risk in Canadian financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-189, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    30. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," Working Papers 1999-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  34. Allan Timmermann, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-14, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Eran Guse, 2004. "Expectational Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 97, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2000. "Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns," NBER Working Papers 7699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Eva Carceles Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2006. "Asset pricing with adaptive learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 25, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Diks, C.G.H. & Dindo, P.D.E., 2006. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    8. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 04/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    9. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 507, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1998. "Learning and excess volatility," Working Papers 1998-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H.,, 2005. "A nonlinear structural model for volatility clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Mejra Festić, 2006. "Procyclicality Of Financial And Real Sector In Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 315-349. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    14. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    15. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    16. Michael Brennan & Yihong Xia, 1997. "Stock Price Volatility, Learning, and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1131, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    17. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    18. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. David Goldbaum, 2004. "On the Possibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2004-009, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

  35. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 1996. "On Business Cycle Variation in the Mean, Volatility and Conditional Distribution of Stock Returns," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-13, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear risk," Staff Reports 61, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  36. Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Other versions:
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "The Cost Efficiency of UK Debt Management: A Recursive Modelling Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. David McMillan, 2004. "Non-linear predictability of UK stock market returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    3. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Stock and Bond Return Predictability : The Discrimination Power of Model Selection Criteria," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2004.05, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève. [Downloadable!]
    4. Vladislav Kargin, 2003. "Value Investing in Emerging Markets: Risks and Benefits," International Finance 0309005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Massimiliano Kaucic, 2009. "Predicting EU Energy Industry Excess Returns on EU Market Index via a Constrained Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 173-193, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    6. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Investing for the long-run in European real estate," Working Papers 2006-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Favero, Carlo A & Milani, Fabio, 2005. "Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    8. Marquering, W. & Verbeek, M., 2000. "The economic value of predicting stock index returns and volatility," Discussion Paper 78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    9. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Andreas Humpe & Peter D. Macmillan, 2005. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0511, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
    11. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Julián Andrada Félix & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez & María Dolores García Artiles, 2004. "Non-linear trading rules in the New York Stock Exchange," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2004-05, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC. [Downloadable!]
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Market Efficiency Today," IEPR Working Papers 05.41, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    16. Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 561, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Dirk Nitzsche & Keith Cuthbertson & Niall O'Sullivan, 2005. "Mutual Fund Performance: Skill Or Luck?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 4, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    18. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Comovements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and timevarying conditional correlations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0805, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    20. Carlo A. Favero, . "Parameters´ Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 196, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    21. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    22. Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & María Dolores García-Artiles & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "An Empirical Evaluation of Non-Linear Trading Rules," Working Papers 2001-16, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Marquering, W.A. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2001. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Research Paper ERS-2001-75-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    24. Jeffrey E. Jarrett & Eric Kyper, 2006. "Capital market efficiency and the predictability of daily returns," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 631-636, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    25. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, . "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    26. Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Nonlinear Links between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Movements," MPRA Paper 558, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    27. Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    28. Jakob B. Madsen & E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy," FRU Working Papers 2004/11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    29. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    30. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2004. "Automated Discovery in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1469, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  37. Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Volatility Clustering and Mean Reversion of Stock Returns in an Asset Pricing Model with Incomplete Learning," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-23, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Orlando Gomes & Vivaldo M. Mendes & Diana A. Mendes, 2007. "The Dynamics of Learning in Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers ercwp2008, ISCTE, UNIDE, Economics Research Centre. [Downloadable!]

  38. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Variation in Expected Stock Returns: Evidence on the Pricing of Equities from a Cross-Section of UK Companies," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Don U.A. Galagedera, 2004. "A survey on risk-return analysis," Finance 0406010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  39. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "The Cost Efficiency of UK Debt Management: A Recursive Modelling Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, . "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    5. David McMillan, 2004. "Non-linear predictability of UK stock market returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    6. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Stock and Bond Return Predictability : The Discrimination Power of Model Selection Criteria," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2004.05, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève. [Downloadable!]
    7. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    8. Doron Avramov, . "Stock-Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 12-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    9. Massimiliano Kaucic, 2009. "Predicting EU Energy Industry Excess Returns on EU Market Index via a Constrained Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 173-193, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    10. Connie Becker & Wayne Ferson & David Myers & Michael Schill, 1998. "Conditional Market Timing with Benchmark Investors," NBER Working Papers 6434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. Hui Guo, 2003. "On the out-of-sample predictability of stock market returns," Working Papers 2002-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Thomas D. Tallarini, Jr. & Harold H. Zhang, 2005. "External habit and the cyclicality of expected stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2008. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    14. Michael Steiner, 2009. "Predicting premiums for the market, size, value, and momentum factors," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 137-155, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    15. Bradley S. Paye & Allan Timmermann, 2002. "How stable are Financial Prediction Models? Evidence from US and International Stock Market Data," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-13, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    16. Favero, Carlo A & Milani, Fabio, 2005. "Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    17. Marquering, W. & Verbeek, M., 2000. "The economic value of predicting stock index returns and volatility," Discussion Paper 78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    18. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. Rita De Siano, 2000. "Financial Variables As Leading Indicators: An Application To The G7 Countries," Working Papers 6_2000, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
    20. Cesare Robotti, 2003. "Dynamic strategies, asset pricing models, and the out-of-sample performance of the tangency portfolio," Working Paper 2003-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    21. Li, GuangJie, 2009. "The Horizon Effect of Stock Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty on Portfolio Choice: UK Evidence," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
    22. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    23. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    24. Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Financial Asset Returns, Market Timing, and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-02, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    25. Jonathan A. Batten, Cetin Ciner and Brian M. Lucey, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Volatility in Precious Metals Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp255, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    26. Ahoniemi, Katja & Lanne, Markku, 2007. "Joint Modeling of Call and Put Implied Volatility," MPRA Paper 6318, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    27. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios," NBER Working Papers 8788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    28. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for U.S. Inflation and GDP Growth?," Working Papers 236, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    29. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    30. Danilov, D. & Magnus, J.R., 2002. "Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market," Discussion Paper 76, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    31. David Mcmillan, 2005. "Time variation in the cointegrating relationship between stock prices and economic activity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 359-368, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    32. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    33. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
    34. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    35. Julián Andrada Félix & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez & María Dolores García Artiles, 2004. "Non-linear trading rules in the New York Stock Exchange," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2004-05, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC. [Downloadable!]
    36. Pesaran, M Hashem & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2005. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi-Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 5279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    37. André Lucas & Ronald van Dijk & Teun Kloek, 2001. "Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-021/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    38. Douglas Rolph & Pu Shen, 1999. "Do the spreads between the E/P ratio and interest rates contain information on future equity market movements?," Research Working Paper 99-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    39. Marcelo C. Medeiros & Timo Terasvirta & Gianluigi Rech, 2002. "Building Neural Network Models for Time Series: A Statistical Approach," Textos para discussão 461, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    40. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Comovements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and timevarying conditional correlations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0805, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    41. Leonid Kogan & Raman Uppal, . "Risk Aversion and Optimal Portfolio Policies in Partial and General Equilibrium Economies," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    42. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    43. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1216, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    44. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    45. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    46. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2005. "Idiosyncratic volatility, stock market volatility, and expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    47. Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & María Dolores García-Artiles & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "An Empirical Evaluation of Non-Linear Trading Rules," Working Papers 2001-16, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    48. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2008. "Optimal Asset Allocation with Factor Models for Large Portfolios," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    49. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    50. Marquering, W.A. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2001. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Research Paper ERS-2001-75-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    51. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    52. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," NBER Working Papers 9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    53. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear risk," Staff Reports 61, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    54. Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A, 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    55. Bekiros, S. & Georgoutsos, D., 2006. "Direction-of-Change Forecasting using a Volatility- Based Recurrent Neural Network," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-16, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    56. Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    57. Rob Bauer & Jeroen Derwall & Rogér Otten, 2007. "The Ethical Mutual Fund Performance Debate: New Evidence from Canada," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 111-124, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    58. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    59. Vaihekoski, Mika, 1998. "Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns," MPRA Paper 13984, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    60. Manuel Ammann & Christian Zenkner, 2003. "Tactical Asset Allocation mit Genetischen Algorithmen," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(I), pages 1-40, March. [Downloadable!]
    61. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/08, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    62. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    63. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
    64. Ping Cheng & Stephen E. Roulac, 2007. "REIT Characteristics and Predictability," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(2), pages 23-41. [Downloadable!]
    65. Arnulfo Rodriguez & Pedro N. Rodriguez, 2006. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 30, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    66. Harald A. Benink & Jose Luis Gordillo & Juan Pablo Pardo & Christopher R. Stephens, 2004. "A Study of Neo-Austrian Economics using an Artificial Stock Market," Finance 0411038, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    67. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2001. "Portfolio allocation in transition economies," Les Cahiers de Recherche 740, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
    68. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    69. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119. [Downloadable!]
    70. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee, 2006. "Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0616, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    71. Chiarella, C. & He, X.-Z. & Hommes, C.H., 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    72. Andreia Dionisio & Rui Menezes & Diana A. Mendes & Jacinto Vidigal da Silva, 2004. "Linear and nonlinear models for the analysis of the relationship between stock market prices and macroeconomic and financial factors," Econometrics 0411018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    73. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Model Instability and Choice of Observation Window," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  40. Steve Satchell & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "An Assessment of the Economic Value of Nonlinear Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-16, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, . "Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange Markets: Linear Versus Nonlinear Trading Rules," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-02, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
    4. F. FernÁndez-RodrÍguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FÉlix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  41. Steve Satchell & Allan Timmermann, 1994. "On the Optimality of Adaptive Expectations: Muth Revisited," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 94-26, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Trond Borgersen, Dag Einar Sommervoll and Tom Wennemo, 2006. "Endogenous Housing Market Cycles," Discussion Papers 458, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    2. Dag Einar Sommervoll, 2007. "Counterintuitive response to tax incentives? Mortgage interest deductions and the demand for debt," Discussion Papers 492, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    3. Katharina Hampel & Marcus Kunz & Norbert Schanne & Ruediger Wapler & Antje Weyh, 2006. "Regional Unemployment Forecasting Using Structural Component Models With Spatial Autocorrelation," ERSA conference papers ersa06p196, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]

  42. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A.G., 1992. "A Generalisation of the Non-Parametric Henriksson-Merton Test of Market Timing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9218, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "The Cost Efficiency of UK Debt Management: A Recursive Modelling Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!]
    3. Roberta Zizza, 2006. "A measure of output gap for Italy through structural time series models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 481-496, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    5. David Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Tests for multiple forecast encompassing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 471-482. [Downloadable!]
    6. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  43. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1992. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9216, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Cited by:

    1. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Cars Hommes, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Research Paper Series 133, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Simon M. Potter, 1993. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing Models and Predictability of Excess Returns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 694, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. Danilov, D. & Magnus, J.R., 2002. "Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market," Discussion Paper 76, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Market Efficiency Today," IEPR Working Papers 05.41, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    5. André Lucas & Ronald van Dijk & Teun Kloek, 2001. "Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-021/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    7. Jeffrey E. Jarrett & Eric Kyper, 2006. "Capital market efficiency and the predictability of daily returns," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 631-636, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    8. Stephen E. Satchell & Shaun A. Bond, 2004. "Asymmetry, Loss Aversion and Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 160, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

  44. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, G., 1990. "The Statistical And Economic Significance Of The Predictability Of Exess Returns On Common Stocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9022, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Shiyi Chen & Kiho Jeong & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2008. "Recurrent Support Vector Regression for a Nonlinear ARMA Model with Applications to Forecasting Financial Returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  45. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Other versions:
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "The Cost Efficiency of UK Debt Management: A Recursive Modelling Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. B. Donkers & B. Melenberg, 2002. "Testing predictive performance of binary choice models," Econometric Institute Report 254, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    4. Gerardo Esquivel & Felipe B. Larrain, 2000. "Currency Crises: Is Central America Different?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0566, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0617, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    7. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Predicting Stock Market Returns by Combining Forecasts," Working Papers 0801, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
    8. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    9. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!]
    10. Marcos Alvarez Díaz & Manuel González Gómez, 2003. "Modelización semiparamétrica y validación teórica del método de valoración contingente. Aplicación de un algoritmo genético," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 164(1), pages 29-47, march. [Downloadable!]
    11. Roberta Zizza, 2006. "A measure of output gap for Italy through structural time series models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 481-496, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    14. M. Marzo & P. Zagaglia, 2007. "Volatility Forecasting for Crude Oil Futures," Working Papers 599, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Chris Doucouliagos, 2005. "Price exhaustion and number preference: time and price confluence in Australian stock prices," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 207-221, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    16. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Implicit Bands in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2006-19, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    17. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    18. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2005. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0502, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    23. Janusz Brzeszczynski & Robert Kelm, 2004. "Short-Term Dependencies between the Volatility of Currency, Money and Capital Markets: The Case of Poland," CERT Discussion Papers 0409, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University. [Downloadable!]
    24. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    25. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004. "Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists," Working Paper Series 004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    26. Ahoniemi, Katja & Lanne, Markku, 2007. "Joint Modeling of Call and Put Implied Volatility," MPRA Paper 6318, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    27. Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Econometric Analysis Of Constructed Binary Time Series," CAMA Working Papers 2005-07, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    28. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    29. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multi-category Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0648, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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    30. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
    31. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    32. Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 561, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    33. Kosei Fukuda, 2009. "Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 243-267, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    34. Teo Jasic & Douglas Wood, 2004. "The profitability of daily stock market indices trades based on neural network predictions: case study for the S&P 500, the DAX, the TOPIX and the FTSE in the period 1965-1999," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 285-297, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    35. Paul McNelis & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Forecasting inflation with thick models and neural networks," Working Paper Series 352, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    36. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the euro area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-14, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    37. Engert, Walter & Hendry, Scott, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    38. PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2005. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2005025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    39. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    40. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    41. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    42. Axel Brüggemann & Thomas Linne, 2002. "Are the Central and Eastern European Transition Countries still vullnerable to an Financial Crisis? Results from the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 157, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    43. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    44. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    45. Fabio Trojani & Francesco Audrino, 2006. "Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 345-369. [Downloadable!]
    46. Marcos Alvarez Díaz & Lucy Amigo Dobaño & Francisco Rodríguez de Prado, . "Taxing on Housing: A Welfare Evaluation of the Spanish Personal Income Tax," Studies on the Spanish Economy 142, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    47. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    48. Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Nonlinear Links between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Movements," MPRA Paper 558, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    49. Luca Onorante & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Sara Signorini, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 901, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    50. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    51. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
    52. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela, 2001. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Working Paper Series 054, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    53. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 1999. "Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo," Working Paper CRENoS 199914, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    54. Fujiwara, Ippei & Koga, Maiko, 2004. "A Statistical Forecasting Method for Inflation Forecasting: Hitting Every Vector Autoregression and Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 123-42, March. [Downloadable!]
    55. Ana María Abarca & Felipe Alarcón & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 425, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    56. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    57. Artis, Michael J & Clavel, Jose Garcia & Hoffmann, Mathias & Nachane, Dilip M, 2007. "Analyzing Strongly Periodic Series in the Frequency Domain: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches with Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6517, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    58. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    59. Silvio John Camilleri & Christopher J. Green, 2005. "An Analysis of the Impacts of Non-Synchronous Trading On," Finance 0504020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    60. Raymund Abara, 2006. "Estimation and evaluation of asset pricing models with habit formation using Philippine data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 493-497, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    61. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2007. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 631, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    62. John Driffill & Turalay Kenc & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2008. "On Model Selection and Markov-Switching: An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    63. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    64. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725. [Downloadable!]
    65. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    66. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    67. Brüggemann, Axel & Linne, Thomas, 2002. "Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]

Articles

  1. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2006. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    3. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 134-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A., 2008. "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0814, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. José M. Campa & Ángel Gavilán, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Banco de España Working Papers 0638, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," Staff Reports 317, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Vasyl Golosnoy, 2007. "Sequential monitoring of minimum variance portfolio," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 91(1), pages 39-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Timmermann, Allan G, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    8. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Working Papers 144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    9. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  3. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  4. Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    2. Chollete, Lorán & Heinen, Andréas & Valdesogo, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula," Discussion Papers 2008/3, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2008. "Modeling Tick-by-Tick Realized Correlations," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-05, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
    8. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    11. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Working Papers 2005-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  5. Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006. "Can Mutual Fund "Stars" Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Alexandros Kostakis, 2007. "Mind Coskewness: A Performance Measure for Prudent, Long-Term Investors," Discussion Papers 07/07, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    2. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005. "Unobserved Actions of Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 11766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O' Sullivan, 2004. "UK Mutual Fund Performance: Genuine Stock-Picking Ability or Luck," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 55, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    4. Dirk Nitzsche & Keith Cuthbertson & Niall O'Sullivan, 2005. "Mutual Fund Performance: Skill Or Luck?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 4, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    5. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?," Working Papers 2009_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Olivier, Jacques & Tay, Anthony, 2008. "Time-Varying Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 6893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Zhi Da & Pengjie Gao & Ravi Jagannathan, 2008. "Informed Trading, Liquidity Provision, and Stock Selection by Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 14609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    8. Lucia Milone & Paolo Pellizzari, 2009. "Mutual funds flows and the "Sheriff of Nottingham" effect," Working Papers 188, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Venice. [Downloadable!]
    9. Zhangpeng Gao & Shahidur Rahman, 2006. "A New Direction of Fund Rating Based on the Finite Normal Mixture Model," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0603, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
    10. Javier Otamendi & Luis Miguel Doncel & Pilar Grau & Jorge Sainz, 2008. "An evaluation on the true statistical relevance of Jensen's alpha trough simulation: An application for Germany," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(10), pages 1-9. [Downloadable!]
    11. Javier Gil-Bazo & Pablo Ruiz-Verdu, 2006. "Yet Another Puzzle? The Relation Between Price And Performance In The Mutual Fund Industry," Business Economics Working Papers wb066519, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
    12. Olivier Scaillet & Laurent Barras & Russell R. Wermers, 2005. "False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas," Working Papers CEB 05-014.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Anthony Tay & Jacques Olivier, 2008. "Time-Varying Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Working Papers 10-2008, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
    14. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2004. "On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 10770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

  6. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 285-308. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  7. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2007. "Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 33-42. [Downloadable!]
    2. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Michiel D. de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-028/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2005. "Forecasting employment growth in Missouri with many potentially relevant predictors: an analysis of forecast combining methods," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 97-112. [Downloadable!]
    5. Sancetta, A., 2007. "Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0718, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    6. Herwartz, Helmut & Golosnoy, Vasyl, 2007. "Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance," Economics Working Papers 2007,23, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  8. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    3. Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," International Finance Discussion Papers 932, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    4. Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 561, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    6. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2009. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2009-36, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    7. Anisha Ghosh & Oliver Linton, 2009. "Consistent estimation of the risk-return tradeoff in the presence of measurement error," Economics Working Papers we094928, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
    8. Waldenström, Daniel & Frey, Bruno S., 2006. "Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries Facing World War II," Working Paper Series 676, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  9. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching ," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1081-1102, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  10. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Completion time structures of stock price movements," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-326, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    2. Ingmar Nolte & Valeri Voev, 2007. "Panel Intensity Models with Latent Factors: An Application to the Trading Dynamics on the Foreign Exchange Market¤," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-02, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]

  11. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    3. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "International Portfolio Diversification and Market Linkages in the presence of regime-switching volatility," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp167, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Thomas J. Flavin and Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "Detecting Shift and Pure Contagion in East Asian Equity Markets: A Unified Approach," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp236, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Investing for the long-run in European real estate," Working Papers 2006-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Thomas J. Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Deren Unalmis, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1981108.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Managing international portfolios with small capitalization stocks," Working Papers 2007-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    10. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "The relation between the equity risk premium and the bond maturity premium in the UK: 1900–2006," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 111-127, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    12. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2006. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    14. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Thomas J.Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "On the robustness of international portfolio diversification benefits to regime-switching volatility," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1801007.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "Shift versus traditional contagion in Asian markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp176, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    18. Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen, 2006. "The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 309-337, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  12. Sandeep Kapur & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 1077-1102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  13. Allan Timmermann & David Blake, 2005. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 71-98, January. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2003. "Nonlinear Correlograms and Partial Autocorrelograms," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Raffaella Giacomini & Ivana Komunjer, 2002. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Sancetta, A., 2007. "Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0718, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    6. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2006. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures for Predictive Inference Based on Recursive Estimation Schemes," Departmental Working Papers 200618, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Sancetta, A. & Satchell, S.E., 2004. "Cost of Capital and Regulator’s Preferences: Investigation into a new method of estimating regulatory bias," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0441, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    8. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Bootstrap Procedures for Recursive Estimation Schemes With Applications to Forecast Model Selection," Departmental Working Papers 200418, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    9. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2008. "A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 668, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    12. Timmermann, Allan G, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    13. Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A, 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    14. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    15. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Eklund, Jana & Karlsson, Sune, 2005. "Forecast Combination and Model Averaging using Predictive Measures," Working Paper Series 191, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan, 2004. "Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Copula-Based Multivariate Dynamic Models under Copula Misspecification," Working Papers 0419, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]

  16. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  17. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  18. Timmermann, Allan & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-27. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2003. "Recursive Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamics in UK Stock Returns," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(4), pages 381-395, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Comovements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and timevarying conditional correlations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0805, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    5. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  20. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with shared data sets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-227. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  22. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  23. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Vega, Clara, 2008. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    2. Brian M. Lucey, 2004. "Robust estimates of daily seasonality in the Irish equity market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 517-523, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Anthony Gu, 2004. "The Reversing Weekend Effect: Evidence from the U.S. Equity Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 5-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    5. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December. [Downloadable!]
    6. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "Simulating Stock Returns Under Switching Regimes - A New Test of Market Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 5614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    7. Brian M. Lucey & Shane Whelan, 2004. "Monthly and semi-annual seasonality in the Irish equity market 1934-2000," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 203-208, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    8. John C. Frain, 2008. "Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Regression Coefficients with alpha-stable residuals and Day of Week effects in Total Returns on Equity Indices," Trinity Economics Papers tep0108, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised May 2008. [Downloadable!]
    9. Joseph P & Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Formalized Data Snooping Based on Generalized Error Rates," IEW - Working Papers iewwp259, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  24. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  25. Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information, and Stock Prices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 299-314, July.
    Other versions:

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  26. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  29. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return," MEA discussion paper series 02023, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Orazio Attanasio & Sagiri Kitao & Giovanni L. Violante, 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1298-1298. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Joachim Winter, 2002. "The impact of pension reforms and demography on stock markets," MEA discussion paper series 02021, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Poutvaara, Panu, 2004. "On the Political Economy of Social Security and Public Education," IZA Discussion Papers 1408, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Dennis Fredriksen and Nils Martin Stølen, 2005. "Effects of demographic development, labour supply and pension reforms on the future pension burden," Discussion Papers 418, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    7. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Transición demográfica en economías cerradas y abiertas: historia de dos regiones," RES Working Papers 4195, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    8. Axel Börsch-Supan & Jens Köke & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Pension reform, savings behavior and capital market performance," MEA discussion paper series 04053, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Paul Masson, 2000. "Fiscal policy and growth in the context of European integration," Research series 200005-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Juan F. Jimeno, . "Incentivos y desigualdad en el sistema español de pensiones contributivas de jubilación," Working Papers 2002-13, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    11. Robert Holzmann, 2000. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Aging Problem?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    12. Miles, David, 2000. "Funded and Unfunded Pension Schemes: Risk, Return and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    13. Marko Koethenbuerger & Panu Poutvaara, 2002. "Social Security Reform and Intergenerational Trade: Is there Scope for a Pareto-Improvement?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Juan F. Jimeno, . "El sistema de pensiones contributivas en España: Cuestiones básicas y perspectivas en el medio plazo," Working Papers 2000-15, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    15. David Miles & Ales Cerny, 2001. "Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Arrangements with Imperfect Financial Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    16. Cerny, Ales & Miles, David K, 2001. "Risk Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Imperfect Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    17. Axel H. Boersch-Supan & Joachim K. Winter, 2001. "Population Aging, Savings Behavior and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    18. Miles, David K, 2000. "Funded and Unfunded Pensions: Risk, Return and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 2369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2002. "Aggregate Risk, Political Constraints and Social Security Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    20. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions," RES Working Papers 4194, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    21. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-08, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  30. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  31. Clive Granger & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Data mining with local model specification uncertainty: a discussion of Hoover and Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 220-225.

    Cited by:

    1. Luc Bauwens & Genaro Sucarrat, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," Economics Working Papers we081810, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  32. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan & Blake, David, 1999. "The hazards of mutual fund underperformance: A Cox regression analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-152, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  33. Blake, David & Lehmann, Bruce N & Timmermann, Allan, 1999. "Asset Allocation Dynamics and Pension Fund Performance," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 429-61, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Satchell & Wei Xia, 2005. "Estimation of the Risk Attitude of the Representative UK Pension Fund Investor," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0509, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Luis Ferruz & Luis Vicente & Laura Andreu, 2009. "Performance persistence and its influence on money and investor flows into Spanish pension plans," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 85-100, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O' Sullivan, 2004. "UK Mutual Fund Performance: Genuine Stock-Picking Ability or Luck," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 55, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    4. Anup Basu & Michael E. Drew, . "The Appropriateness of Default Investment Options in Defined Contribution Plans: Australian Evidence," Working Papers finance:200903, Department of Finance, Accounting, and Economics, Griffith University. [Downloadable!]
    5. Basu, Anup & Drew, Michael, 2006. "Appropriateness of Default Investment Options in Defined Contribution Plans: The Australian Evidence," MPRA Paper 3314, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
    6. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Les fonds de pension protègent-ils les investisseurs des évolutions du marché?," Working Papers FARGO 1060101, Université de Bourgogne - Latec/Fargo (Research center in Finance,organizational ARchitecture and GOvernance). [Downloadable!]
    7. J. Annaert & J.K. De Ceuster & W. Van Hyfte, 2002. "The Value of Asset Allocation Advice - Evidence of The Economist’s Quarterly Portfolio Poll," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 02/160, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    8. Anup Basu & Michael E. Drew, . "The Case for Gender Sensitive Superannuation Plan Design," Working Papers finance:200904, Department of Finance, Accounting, and Economics, Griffith University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Famille de fonds de pension, performance et persistance de la performance," Working Papers FARGO 1060903, Université de Bourgogne - Latec/Fargo (Research center in Finance,organizational ARchitecture and GOvernance). [Downloadable!]
    10. Dariusz Stanko, 2003. "Performance Evaluation of Public Pension Funds: The Reformed Pension System in Poland," Finance 0306002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    11. Farah, N. & Satchell, S.E., 2003. "A Loss Aversion Performance Measure," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0333, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    12. Manuel Ammann & Andreas Zingg, 2008. "Investment Performance of Swiss Pension Funds and Investment Foundations," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(II), pages 153-195, June. [Downloadable!]

  34. Miles, David & Timmermann, Allan, 1996. "Variation in Expected Stock Returns: Evidence on the Pricing of Equities from a Cross-Section of UK Companies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 369-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  35. Timmermann, Allan, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(4), pages 523-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  36. Satchell, Steve & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "On the optimality of adaptive expectations: Muth revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 407-416, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  37. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  38. Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Cointegration Tests of Present Value Models with a Time-Varying Discount Factor," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 17-31, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Boucher, 2003. "Stock Market Valuation : the Role of the Macroeconomic Risk Premium," Finance 0305011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  39. Timmermann, Allan, 1994. "Present value models with feedback : Solutions, stability, bubbles, and some empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1093-1119, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Jovanovic, Boyan, 2008. "Bubbles In Prices Of Exhaustible Resources," Working Papers 45830, American Association of Wine Economists. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Fanelli, Luca, 2006. "Present value relations, Granger non-causality and VAR stability," MPRA Paper 1642, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  40. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G., 1994. "A generalization of the non-parametric Henriksson-Merton test of market timing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

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  41. Timmermann, Allan, 1994. "Can Agents Learn to Form Rational Expectations? Some Results on Convergence and Stability of Learning in the UK Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 777-97, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2006. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]

  42. Timmermann, Allan Gilling, 1993. " Learning, Specification Search and Market Efficiency. With an Application to the Danish Stock Market," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 95(2), pages 157-73.

    Cited by:

    1. Acuña, Andrés & Pinto, Cristián, 2007. "Eficiencia del Mercado Accionario Chileno: Un Enfoque Dinámico usando Tests de Volatilidad
      [Chilean Stock Market Efficiency: A Dynamic Approach using Volatility Tests]      ," MPRA Paper 7387, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  43. Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2000. "Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns," NBER Working Papers 7699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2001. "Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Eva Carceles Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2006. "Asset pricing with adaptive learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 25, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Alvaro Sandroni, 1997. "Learning Rare Events," Discussion Papers 1199, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    7. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Tobias Adrian & Francesco Franzoni, 2008. "Learning about beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM," Staff Reports 193, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    10. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2007. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    12. Bradley S. Paye & Allan Timmermann, 2002. "How stable are Financial Prediction Models? Evidence from US and International Stock Market Data," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-13, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    13. Francis, Jennifer & LaFond, Ryan & Olsson, Per & Schipper, Katherine, 2003. "Accounting Anomalies and Information Uncertainty," SIFR Research Report Series 13, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    14. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 519, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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    15. Tobias Adrian, 2004. "Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility," Staff Reports 187, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    16. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1998. "Learning and excess volatility," Working Papers 1998-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    17. Günter Franke & Erik Lüders, 2006. "Return Predictability and Stock Market Crashes in a Simple Rational Expectations Model¤," CoFE Discussion Paper 06-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
    18. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H.,, 2005. "A nonlinear structural model for volatility clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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    19. Ole Peters, 2009. "Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity," Quantitative Finance Papers 0902.2965, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
    20. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2002. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 497, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
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    21. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 520, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    22. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
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    23. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    24. Michael Brennan & Yihong Xia, 1997. "Stock Price Volatility, Learning, and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1131, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    25. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes," Econometrics 9502003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    26. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    27. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2001. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    28. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December. [Downloadable!]
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    29. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    30. Sergey V. Chernenko, 2004. "The information content of forward and futures prices: market expectations and the price of risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 808, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    31. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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    32. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    33. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    34. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]

  44. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

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