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Michael J. Dueker

(deceased)

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Michael J. Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Indian and Brazilian Yield Curves Invert, Hint at “Monstrous Risks”
      by admin in HistorySquared on 2011-06-11 11:09:00
    2. Summary of Research on the Usefulness of using the Yield Curve in Macro Forecasting
      by admin in HistorySquared on 2011-02-10 23:51:54

Working papers

  1. Michael J. Dueker & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2010. "A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications," Working Papers 2010-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Aug 2022.

    Cited by:

    1. Lixiong Yang & Chingnun Lee & I‐Po Chen, 2021. "Threshold model with a time‐varying threshold based on Fourier approximation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 406-430, July.
    2. Zhu, Yanli & Chen, Haiqiang, 2017. "The asymmetry of U.S. monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold Taylor rule with time-varying threshold values," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 522-535.

  2. Michael J. Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2010. "State-Dependent Threshold STAR Models," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 818.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Dueker & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2010. "A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications," Working Papers 2010-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Aug 2022.

  3. Michael J. Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2010. "Multivariate Contemporaneous-Threshold Autoregressive Models," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 817.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

    Cited by:

    1. Leena Kalliovirta & Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2015. "A Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive Model for Univariate Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 247-266, March.
    2. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2009. "Selecting nonlinear time series models using information criteria," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 369-394, July.
    4. Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch & Matthias Nöckel, 2018. "State-Dependent Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 7074, CESifo.
    5. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    6. Michael Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2009. "Contemporaneous-Threshold Smooth Transition GARCH Models," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-06, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    7. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime‐Switching Models With Covariate‐Dependent Transition Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1681-1710, July.
    8. MeiChi Huang, 2017. "Vulnerabilities to housing bubbles: Evidence from linkages between housing prices and income fundamentals," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 64-91, March.
    9. Paulo Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting interval time series with threshold models," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, March.
    10. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Threshold cointegration, nonlinearity, and frequency domain causality relationship between stock price and Turkish Lira," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2021. "Testing for observation-dependent regime switching in mixture autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 601-624.
    12. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Possibly Misspeci ed Dynamic Models with Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Regimes," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    13. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
    14. Kalliovirta, Leena & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2016. "Gaussian mixture vector autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 485-498.
    15. Yin, Ming, 2015. "Estimating Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive model with Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm: A parallel GPU implementation," MPRA Paper 88111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.

  4. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR," Working Papers 2008-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

  5. Michael Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2009. "Contemporaneous-Threshold Smooth Transition GARCH Models," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-06, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

    Cited by:

    1. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

  6. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola, 2008. "Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland," Working Papers 2008-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2015. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: a MS-DFM approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

  7. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Majumdar, Raju, 2013. "On the alternative proxies for estimating firm growth in empirical corporate finance literature: Evidence from Indian manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 44874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2009. "Credit crises, money, and contractions: A historical view," Working Papers (Old Series) 0908, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Anthony Olugbenga ADARAMOLA & Peter Akinyemi KAYODE, 2022. "Is Monetary Policy - Stock Price Behaviour Effect Sector-Sensitive? Evidence From Nigeria," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 7(3), pages 171-193.
    4. Galariotis, Emilios & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2018. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on expectations and sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-20.
    5. Haifa Hammami & Younes Boujelbene, 2017. "Stock market crashes shocks and real economy in Tunisia," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 31-48.
    6. Tanya ARAUJO & Sofia TERLICA & Samuel ELEUTERIO & Francisco LOUCA, 2014. "Does evidence challenge the DSGE model," International Journal of Entrepreneurial Knowledge, Center for International Scientific Research of VSO and VSPP, vol. 2(2), pages 15-24, December.
    7. Ventura, Jaume & Asriyan, Vladimir & Fornaro, Luca & Martín, Alberto, 2019. "Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World," CEPR Discussion Papers 13803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    9. Ricardo Lagos, 2011. "Asset Prices, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy in an Exchange Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 521-552, October.
    10. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    11. Manamba EPAPHRA & Evidence SALEMA, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices in Tanzania," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 12-41, March.
    12. ali, ramsha, 2016. "Impact of inflation on the monetary policy: case study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 92362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    14. Murphy, Austin & AlSalman, Zeina, 2023. "Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

  8. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "Monetary policy, inflation expectations and the price puzzle," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 30/2009, Bank of Finland.
    2. Strid, Ingvar, 2010. "Efficient parallelisation of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms using a prefetching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2814-2835, November.
    3. Strid, Ingvar, 2008. "Metropolis-Hastings prefetching algorithms," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 706, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 02 Dec 2009.

  9. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2007. "Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century," Working Papers 2007-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    2. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    3. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2010. "Impact of the global crisis on the linkages between the interest rates and the stock prices in Romania," MPRA Paper 36716, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Feb 2011.
    4. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Aldo Musacchio, 2010. "Law and Finance c. 1900," NBER Working Papers 16216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR," Working Papers 2008-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    8. Kuk Mo Jung & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2020. "A Long-Run Approach to Money, Unemployment and Equity Prices," Working Papers 2001, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    9. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2023. "A long-run approach to money, unemployment, and equity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2018. "A Monetary Model of Bilateral Over-the-Counter Markets," NBER Working Papers 25239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Badamvaanchig, Mungunzul & Islam, Moinul & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2021. "Pass-through of commodity price to Mongolian stock price: Symmetric or asymmetric?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Shaturaev, Jakhongir, 2023. "Impact of Cryptocurrency Market on the Performance of Stock Market- An Empirical Study," MPRA Paper 118244, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 May 2023.
    13. Lichao Cheng & Yi Jin & Zhixiong Zeng, 2011. "Asset Prices, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation," Monash Economics Working Papers 13-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Cheng, Lichao & Jin, Yi, 2013. "Asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations: An empirical investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 24-27.

  10. Michael J. Dueker & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Working Papers 2001-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
    2. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2003. "Equity Indexing: Conitegration and Stock Price Dispersion: A Regime Switiching Approach to market Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    3. Maximo Camacho & Marcos Dal Bianco & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Working Papers 1201, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Perlin, M., 2007. "M of a kind: A Multivariate Approach at Pairs Trading," MPRA Paper 8309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Darvas, Zsolt, 2009. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 944-957, May.
    6. Roberto Casarin & Marco Tronzano & Domenico Sartore, 2013. "Bayesian Markov Switching Stochastic Correlation Models," Working Papers 2013:11, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2021. "Regime Shifts in the Behaviour of International Currency and Equity Markets: A Markov-Switching Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 309-336, December.
    8. Khyati Kathuria & Nand Kumar, 2022. "Pandemic‐induced fear and government policy response as a measure of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from (a)symmetric wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 361-379, October.
    9. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Exchange rate return predictability in times of geopolitical risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Finance 0512033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Reitz, Stefan, 2006. "On the predictive content of technical analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 121-137, August.
    13. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2018. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 64, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    14. Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2007. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    16. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Segmentation and time-of-day patterns in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2199-2206, December.
    17. Mr. Istvan P Szekely & Ádám Kóbor, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Eu Accession Countries in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption: Weathering Uncharted Waters," IMF Working Papers 2004/016, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2010. "Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," NBER Working Papers 16223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    20. Charlotte Christiansen, 2010. "Intertemporal Risk-Return Trade-off in Foreign Exchange Rates," CREATES Research Papers 2010-20, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    21. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Components of the Profitability of Technical Currency Trading," WIFO Working Papers 263, WIFO.
    22. Andreas Hadjixenophontos & Christos Christodoulou-Volos, 2017. "Predictability of Foreign Exchange Rates with the AR(1) Model," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 1-3.
    23. Liu, Xinyi & Margaritis, Dimitris & Wang, Peiming, 2012. "Stock market volatility and equity returns: Evidence from a two-state Markov-switching model with regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-496.
    24. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    25. Carol Osler, 2012. "Market Microstructure and the Profitability of Currency Trading," Working Papers 48, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    26. Hugh Christensen & Simon Godsill & Richard E Turner, 2020. "Hidden Markov Models Applied To Intraday Momentum Trading With Side Information," Papers 2006.08307, arXiv.org.
    27. Nikola Gradojevic & Christopher J. Neely, 2008. "The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate," Working Papers 2008-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    28. Jia Liu & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Improving Markov switching models using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 297-318, April.
    29. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Dynamic risk exposures in hedge funds," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3517-3532.
    30. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    31. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2008. "Crises and Hedge Fund Risk," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2561, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
    32. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
    33. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2012. "Moments of multivariate regime switching with application to risk-return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-308.
    34. Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Dunis, Christian, 2014. "Stochastic and genetic neural network combinations in trading and hybrid time-varying leverage effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 21-54.
    35. George S. Parikakis & Anna Merika, 2009. "Evaluating volatility dynamics and the forecasting ability of Markov switching models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 736-744.
    36. Harris, Richard D.F. & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2009. "A momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency component of the exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1575-1585, September.
    37. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    38. Isakov, Dusan & Marti, Didier, 2011. "Technical Analysis with a Long-Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability," FSES Working Papers 421, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    39. Perlin, M., 2007. "Evaluation of pairs trading strategy at the Brazilian financial market," MPRA Paper 8308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Saïd Souam & Faycal Hamdi, 2018. "Mixture Periodic GARCH Models: Theory and Applications," Post-Print hal-01589209, HAL.
    41. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Idiosyncratic volatility, economic fundamentals, and foreign exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    42. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 467-488, April.
    43. Luke Lin & Chun I. Lee, 2016. "Central Bank Intervention, Exchange Rate Regime and the Purchasing Power Parity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1256-1274, August.
    44. Suman Das & Saikat Sinha Roy, 2021. "Predicting regime switching in BRICS currency volatility: a Markov switching autoregressive approach," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 165-180, June.
    45. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
    46. Thomas Oberlechner & Carol Osler, 2009. "Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Working Papers 02, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    47. Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Weller, Paul A. & Dunham, Lee M., 2009. "Price trends and patterns in technical analysis: A theoretical and empirical examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1089-1100, June.
    48. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: The Multi-State Markov-Switching Model with Smoothing," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-115, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
    49. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
    50. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2006. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 667, European Central Bank.
    51. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2006. "Phase-Locking and Switching Volatility in Hedge Funds," Working Papers 2006_54, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    52. Roberto Casarin & Domenico Sartore & Marco Tronzano, 2018. "A Bayesian Markov-Switching Correlation Model for Contagion Analysis on Exchange Rate Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 101-114, January.
    53. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Souropanis, Ioannis, 2019. "The role of technical indicators in exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 197-221.
    54. Hsu, Ching-Chi & Chen, Miao-Ling, 2021. "Currency momentum strategies based on the Chinese Yuan: Timing of foreign exchange volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    55. Arora Siddharth & Little Max A. & McSharry Patrick E., 2013. "Nonlinear and nonparametric modeling approaches for probabilistic forecasting of the US gross national product," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 395-420, September.
    56. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Markov-switching regimes and the monetary model of exchange rate determination: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 707-723.
    57. Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  11. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: estimation, testing and forecasting," Working Papers 2003-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2013. "State-Dependent Threshold Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 835-854, December.
    2. Jiayue Zhang & Fukang Zhu & Huaping Chen, 2023. "Two-Threshold-Variable Integer-Valued Autoregressive Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Bel, K. & Paap, R., 2013. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Leena Kalliovirta & Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2015. "A Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive Model for Univariate Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 247-266, March.
    5. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2009. "Selecting nonlinear time series models using information criteria," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 369-394, July.
    6. Michael Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2009. "Contemporaneous-Threshold Smooth Transition GARCH Models," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-06, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    7. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime‐Switching Models With Covariate‐Dependent Transition Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1681-1710, July.
    8. Paulo Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting interval time series with threshold models," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, March.
    9. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    10. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2017. "Generalizing Smooth Transition Autoregressions," DEM Working Papers Series 138, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    11. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Chong & Jushan Bai, 2012. "Theory and Applications of TAR Model with Two Threshold Variables," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 142-170.
    12. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "Multi–regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 319-341, June.
    13. Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2021. "Testing for observation-dependent regime switching in mixture autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 601-624.
    14. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Possibly Misspeci ed Dynamic Models with Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Regimes," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    15. Kalliovirta, Leena & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2016. "Gaussian mixture vector autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 485-498.
    16. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "An analysis of global warming in the Alpine region based on nonlinear nonstationary time series models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 21(3), pages 315-334, August.
    17. Chong, Terence T.L. & Yan, Isabel K., 2018. "Forecasting currency crises with threshold models," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 156-174.
    18. Michael J. Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Multivariate contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models," Working Papers 2007-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Chong Terence T. L. & He Qing & Hinich Melvin J, 2008. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Foreign Reserves and Currency Crises," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Yin, Ming, 2015. "Estimating Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive model with Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm: A parallel GPU implementation," MPRA Paper 88111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    21. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2011. "Modeling and Forecasting Interval Time Series with Threshold Models: An Application to S&P500 Index Returns," Working Papers w201128, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

  12. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Kalman filtering with truncated normal state variables for Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models," Working Papers 2005-057, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Ali Genç, 2013. "Moments of truncated normal/independent distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 741-764, August.
    2. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.

  13. Michael Dueker & Charles Nelson, 2006. "Business-Cycle Filtering of Macroeconomic Data Via A Latent Business-Cycle Index," Working Papers UWEC-2006-13-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2015. "Measuring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks and Outliers: Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    2. Samuel Standaert & Glenn Rayp, 2015. "Trade Integration And Trade Agreements:Resolving The Endogeneity Problem Through A Qualitative Var," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/912, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR," Working Papers 2008-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2006. "State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-029, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  14. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2005. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Working Papers 2001-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
    2. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    3. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    4. Galariotis, Emilios & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2018. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on expectations and sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-20.
    5. Meinusch, Annette & Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policy shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 58-67.
    6. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
    7. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 182014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    10. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2017. "A Note on the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the US on Emerging Market REITs: A Qual VAR Approach," Working Papers 201736, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.

  15. Michael J. Dueker & Ada K. Jacox & David E. Kalist & Stephen J. Spurr, 2005. "The practice boundaries of advanced practice nurses: an economic and legal analysis," Working Papers 2005-071, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Malakhov, Vladimir Sergeevich (Малахов, Владимир Сергеевич), 2016. "Evaluation of Risks, Threats and Challenges of Migration Policy in the Context of Long-Term Mass Presence on the Territory of Russian Refugees from Neighboring Countries [Оценка Рисков, Угроз И Зад," Working Papers 16610, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Kevin M. Stange, 2013. "How Does Provider Supply and Regulation Influence Health Care Market? Evidence from Nurse Practitioners and Physician Assistants," NBER Working Papers 19172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Morris M. Kleiner & Allison Marier & Kyoung Won Park & Coady Wing, 2016. "Relaxing Occupational Licensing Requirements: Analyzing Wages and Prices for a Medical Service," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 261-291.
    4. William H. Greene & David A. Hensher, 2008. "Modeling Ordered Choices: A Primer and Recent Developments," Working Papers 08-26, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. McMichael, Benjamin, 2017. "Beyond Physicians: The Effect of Licensing and Liability Laws on the Supply of Nurse Practitioners and Physician Assistants," Working Papers 07538, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    6. Park, Jee-Hyeong & Spurr, Stephen J. & Chang, Sheng-Kai, 2009. "A Model of Hierarchical Professionals: Cooperation and Conflict between Anesthesiologists and CRNAs," CEI Working Paper Series 2009-13, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Benjamin J. McMichael, 2017. "The Demand for Healthcare Regulation: The Effect of Political Spending on Occupational Licensing Laws," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(1), pages 297-316, July.
    8. Diane Alexander & Molly Schnell, 2016. "Just What the Nurse Practitioner Ordered: Independent Prescriptive Authority and Population Mental Health," Working Paper Series WP-2017-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Tianyuan Luo & Cesar L. Escalante & Carmina E. Taylor, 2021. "Labor market outcomes of granting full professional independence to nurse practitioners," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 22-54, August.
    10. John J. Perry, 2009. "The Rise And Impact Of Nurse Practitioners And Physician Assistants On Their Own And Cross‐Occupation Incomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(4), pages 491-511, October.
    11. Patricia Pittman & Benjamin Williams, 2012. "Physician Wages in States with Expanded APRN Scope of Practice," Nursing Research and Practice, Hindawi, vol. 2012, pages 1-5, February.
    12. John J. Perry, 2012. "State-Granted Practice Authority: Do Nurse Practitioners Vote with Their Feet?," Nursing Research and Practice, Hindawi, vol. 2012, pages 1-5, November.
    13. Anca M. Grecu & Lee C. Spector, 2019. "Nurse practitioner's independent prescriptive authority and opioids abuse," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(10), pages 1220-1225, October.

  16. Michael Dueker, 2004. "Non-Markovian Regime Switching with Endogenous States and Time-Varying State Strengths," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 34, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    2. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2015. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions—Does loan growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 82-94.
    4. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-123/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Xin Wei, 2020. "Dynamic Expectations Formation and U.S. Monetary Policy Regime Change," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
    7. Andrei A. Sirchenko, 2017. "An endogenous regime-switching model of ordered choice with an application to federal funds rate target," 2017 Papers psi424, Job Market Papers.
    8. Judex Hyppolite & Pravin Trivedi, 2012. "Alternative Approaches For Econometric Analysis Of Panel Count Data Using Dynamic Latent Class Models (With Application To Doctor Visits Data)," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(S1), pages 101-128, June.
    9. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    10. Chaojun Li & Yan Liu, 2020. "Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in Regime-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Papers 2010.04930, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    11. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  17. Michael J. Dueker & Charles R. Nelson, 2003. "Business cycle detrending of macroeconomic data via a latent business cycle index," Working Papers 2002-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Céline Gauthier & Fuchun Li, 2005. "Linking real activity and financial markets: the first steps towards a small estimated model for Canada," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 253-72, Bank for International Settlements.

  18. Michael J. Dueker, 2003. "Dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables: a Qual VAR model of U.S. recessions," Working Papers 2001-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    2. Quentin LAJAUNIE, 2021. "Nonlinear Impulse Response Function for Dichotomous Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2852, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2015. "Estimating the effects of macroprudential policy shocks: A Qual VAR approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-4.
    4. Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand & Juan D. Hernandez-Leal & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2017. "When Multiple Objectives Meet Multiple Instruments: Identifying Simultaneous Monetary Shocks," Borradores de Economia 997, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Franz C. Palm, 2013. "Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation," Advances in Econometrics, in: VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims, volume 32, pages 395-427, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    7. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
    8. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
    9. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    10. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    11. Tiziana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2015. "The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: evidence from SIGE," Working Papers LuissLab 15118, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    12. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    13. Galariotis, Emilios & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2018. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on expectations and sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-20.
    14. Anatolyev Stanislav, 2009. "Multi-Market Direction-of-Change Modeling Using Dependence Ratios," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
    15. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Yang Lu, 2020. "A simple parameter‐driven binary time series model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 187-199, March.
    17. Chen, Guojin & Chen, Lingling & Liu, Yanzhen & Qu, Yuxuan, 2021. "Stock price bubbles, leverage and systemic risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 405-417.
    18. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2016. "Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread," Working Papers 2016-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    19. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU & Christophe HURLIN & Franz C. PALM, 2011. "Modelling Financial Crises Mutation," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1238, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    20. Meinusch, Annette & Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policy shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 58-67.
    21. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR," Working Papers 2008-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Galakis, John & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2021. "Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 647-671.
    23. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
    24. William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2021. "The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 633-660, February.
    25. Dueker, Michael, 2006. "Kalman filtering with truncated normal state variables for Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 58-62, October.
    26. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    27. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2016. "Dynamic Comovements Between Housing and Oil Markets in the US over 1859 to 2013: a Note," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 377-386, September.
    28. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
    29. Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 182014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    30. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    31. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    32. Sameer Khatiwada, 2017. "Quantitative Easing by the Fed and International Capital Flows," IHEID Working Papers 02-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    33. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina & Volz, Ulrich, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," GLO Discussion Paper Series 41, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    34. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307.
    35. Kim, Kyungmin & Lee, Joo Yong, 2017. "Estimating the effects of FX-related macroprudential policies in Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 23-48.
    36. Vladimir Dubrovskiy & Inna Golodniuk & Janusz Szyrmer, 2009. "Composite Leading Indicators for Ukraine: An Early Warning Model," CASE Network Reports 0085, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    37. Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Econometric Analysis Of Constructed Binary Time Series," CAMA Working Papers 2005-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    38. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
    39. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    40. Hongyi Chen & Kenneth ChowAuthor-Workplace-Name: Hong Kong Monetary Authority & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," Working Papers 062016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    41. Huiwen Lai & Eric C. Y. Ng, 2020. "On business cycle forecasting," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, December.
    42. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    43. Andrei Sirchenko, 2019. "A regime-switching model for the federal funds rate target," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 19-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    44. David, Antonio C. & Guajardo, Jaime & Yepez, Juan F., 2022. "The rewards of fiscal consolidations: Sovereign spreads and confidence effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    45. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
    46. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    47. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2017. "A Note on the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the US on Emerging Market REITs: A Qual VAR Approach," Working Papers 201736, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    48. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    49. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September.
    50. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne.
    51. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
    52. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    54. Ryou, Jai Won & Baak, Saang Joon & Kim, Won Joong, 2019. "Effects of Japanese quantitative easing policy on the economies of Japan and Korea," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 241-252.
    55. Thornton, Daniel L., 2016. "Guest editor's introduction: What monetary policy can and cannot do," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 1-4.
    56. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    57. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
    58. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
    59. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
    60. John G. Fernald & Bharat Trehan, 2006. "Is a recession imminent?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov24.
    61. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    62. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    63. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Leopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2013. "Non-Parametric Approach to Dynamic Time Series Discrete Choice Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013052, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    64. Michael J. Dueker & Charles R. Nelson, 2003. "Business cycle detrending of macroeconomic data via a latent business cycle index," Working Papers 2002-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    65. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    66. Juan Huang & Geoffrey Qiping Shen, 2017. "Residential housing bubbles in Hong Kong: identification and explanation based on GSADF test and dynamic probit model," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 108-128, April.
    67. Beck, Roland & Duca, Ioana A. & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Medium term treatment and side effects of quantitative easing: international evidence," Working Paper Series 2229, European Central Bank.
    68. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Kaya Tokmakcioglu & Emre Su, 2021. "Revisiting the asymmetric impacts of the exchange market pressure on the inflation, interest rate and foreign trade balance in Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2517-2538, November.
    70. Kaya Tokmakcioglu & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Ali Sezin Ozdemir, 2019. "The role of asymmetry in the interplay between internal and external factors: Empirical evidence from the US, Brazil, Canada and Mexico," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 55-75.

  19. Michael Dueker & Andreas Fischer, 2003. "Fixing Swiss Potholes: The Importance and Cyclical Nature of Improvements," Working Papers 03.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.

    Cited by:

    1. Moreno-Quintero, Eric & Fowkes, Tony & Watling, David, 2013. "Modelling planner–carrier interactions in road freight transport: Optimisation of road maintenance costs via overloading control," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 68-83.

  20. Michael J. Dueker & Thomas W. Miller, 2002. "Directly measuring early exercise premiums using American and European S&P 500 index options," Working Papers 2002-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Lasser, Dennis J. & Spizman, Joshua D., 2016. "The value of the wildcard option in cash-settled American index options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 116-131.
    2. Geoffrey Poitras & Chris Veld & Yuriy Zabolotnyuk, 2009. "European Put-Call Parity and the Early Exercise Premium for American Currency Options," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 13(1-2), pages 39-54, March-Jun.

  21. Fischer, Andreas & Dueker, Michael & Dittmar, Robert, 2002. "Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Comovement of Hours and Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3192, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. F. Canova & F. Ferroni & C. Matthes, 2015. "Approximating time varying structural models with time invariant structures," Working papers 578, Banque de France.
    2. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Alasdair Scott & Jana Eklund, 2008. "Breaks in DSGE models," 2008 Meeting Papers 657, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2013. "Generational Risk - Is It a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model with Aggregate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 19179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2009. "Measuring Total Factor Productivity and Variable Factor Utilisation: Sector Approach, The Case of Latvia," Working Papers 2009/03, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Eric Kemp-Benedict & Jonathan Lamontagne & Timothy Laing & Crystal Drakes, 2019. "Climate Impacts on Capital Accumulation in the Small Island State of Barbados," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, June.
    7. Paul Pichler, 2007. "On the accuracy of low-order projection methods," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(50), pages 1-8.
    8. Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin, 2014. "New Perspectives On Depreciation Shocks As A Source Of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1209-1233, September.
    9. Bitros, George C., 2009. "The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Conceptual Foundations," MPRA Paper 17436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Frédéric Karamé, 2018. "A new particle filtering approach to estimate stochastic volatility models with Markov-switching," Post-Print hal-02296093, HAL.
    11. Pedro P. Alvarez-Lois, 2005. "Production Inflexibilities and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 170-193, January.
    12. Inwon Jang & Hyeon-seung Huh & Richard Wong, 2008. "Optimal capital investment under uncertainty: An extension," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(4), pages 1-7.
    13. George Bitros, 2010. "The theorem of proportionality in contemporary capital theory: An assessment of its conceptual foundations," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 367-401, December.
    14. Tom Holden, 2012. "Medium-frequency cycles and the remarkable near trend-stationarity of output," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1412, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Deli, Yota D., 2016. "Endogenous capital depreciation and technology shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 318-338.
    16. Poudel, Diwakar & Sandal, Leif K. & Kvamsdal, Sturla F. & Steinshamn, Stein I., 2011. "Fisheries Management under Irreversible Investment: Does Stochasticity Matter?," Discussion Papers 2011/20, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    17. Belaygorod, Anatoliy & Dueker, Michael, 2009. "Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 624-648, March.

  22. Fischer, Andreas & Dueker, Michael, 2002. "Fixing Swiss Potholes: The Importance of Improvements," CEPR Discussion Papers 3159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Bitros, George C., 2009. "The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Conceptual Foundations," MPRA Paper 17436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Moreno-Quintero, Eric & Fowkes, Tony & Watling, David, 2013. "Modelling planner–carrier interactions in road freight transport: Optimisation of road maintenance costs via overloading control," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 68-83.

  23. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis," Working Papers 2000-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Stability: The United Kingdom 1796-1999," NBER Working Papers 8583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Eiji Yamamura, 2013. "Institution and decomposition of natural disaster impact on growth," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(6), pages 720-738, October.
    3. Juan S. Lemus-Esquivel & Carlos A. Quicazán-Moreno & Jorge L. Hurtado-Guarín & Angélica Lizarazo-Cuéllar, 2015. "Financial Soundness Index for the Private Corporate Sector in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 13415, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    5. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    6. Mejía Cubillos, Javier, 2012. "Propuesta metodológica para el cálculo del riesgo sistémico financiero en estudios de Historia Económica: Aplicación para el caso de la banca libre en Antioquia, 1888 [A methodology for assessing f," MPRA Paper 35460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno, 2015. "Assessing the link between price and financial stability," Post-Print hal-03399269, HAL.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Berlemann, Michael & Freese, Julia, 2010. "Monetary policy and real estate prices: A disaggregated analysis for Switzerland," HWWI Research Papers 2-19, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    10. Lesia Tyshchenko & Attila Csajbok, 2017. "A Financial Stress Index for Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 240, pages 5-13.
    11. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2021. "A Bayesian panel stochastic volatility measure of financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5363-5384, October.
    12. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms," NBER Working Papers 10704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sun, Lixin & Huang, Yuqin, 2013. "Measuring the Instability of China’s Financial System: Indices Construction and an Early Warning System," MPRA Paper 68497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis," NBER Historical Working Papers 0125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Sarno, Lucio & Wohar, Mark, 2003. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Different Nominal Regimes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 310, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Obregon, Carlos, 2018. "Globalización visiones equivocadas [Globalization misguided views]," MPRA Paper 86396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    19. Louzis, Dimitrios & Vouldis, Angelos, 2013. "A financial systemic stress index for Greece," Working Paper Series 1563, European Central Bank.
    20. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: "Fuzzy" Measurement and its Consequences," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 544, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    22. Blomkvist, Katarina & Kappen, Philip & Zander, Ivo, 2023. "Weathering storms – Technological exploration of MNCs in times of financial crisis," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2).
    23. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Affandi, Yoga, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and financial stability–Is there a relation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1018-1029.
    24. Nizar El Ouni & Faouzi Miled & Manelle Lahdhiri, 2014. "Disconnection between the Financial Sphere and the Real Sphere: Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 95-103, October.
    25. Carolyn Currie, 2003. "Towards a General Theory of Financial Regulation: Predicting, Measuring and Preventing Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 132, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    26. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    27. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    28. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2012. "Atypical Behavior of Money and Credit: Evidence From Conditional Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 65405, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    29. Jaimes Caruana, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Chapters, in: Andreas Dombret & Otto Lucius (ed.), Stability of the Financial System, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    30. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    31. María Fernanda Meneses-González & Javier Eliecer Pirateque-Niño & Santiago David Segovia-Baquero, 2019. "Indicadores de alerta temprana para el sector corporativo privado colombiano," Borradores de Economia 1084, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    32. Bihari, Péter, 2019. "Szempontok a jegybank mandátumának újragondolásához [Perspectives for a review of the central bank mandate]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1241-1256.
    33. Michael Bordo, 2000. "Sound Money and Sound Financial Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 129-155, December.
    34. Li, Yanshuang & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian & Zhang, Weiping, 2020. "Analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s stock market based on complex networks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    35. Currie, Carolyn, 2006. "A new theory of financial regulation: Predicting, measuring and preventing financial crises," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 48-71, February.
    36. Angela Roman & Irina Bilan, 2009. "The monetary policy and the financial stability in the context of globalization," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 143-156, November.
    37. Ronny Mazzocchi, 2013. "Investment-Saving Imbalances with Endogenous Capital Stock," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/14, Department of Economics and Management.
    38. Gunther Tichy, 2020. "Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(3), pages 193-206, March.
    39. Peter Spahn, 2010. "Asset Prices, Inflation and Monetary Control - Re-inventing Money as a Policy Tool," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 323/2010, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    40. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    41. Antoine Ngakosso, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: A CEMAC Zone Case Study," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(7), pages 244-244, July.
    42. Adam Koronowski, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Financial (In)Stability," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 4(2), June.
    43. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2014. "Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 57-70.
    44. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Macroprudential Policy – A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 846-878, December.
    45. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Lo Duca, Marco, 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," Working Paper Series 1311, European Central Bank.
    46. Michel Bordo & John Lando-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 710, Central Bank of Chile.
    47. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    48. Zelazny Jan, 2016. "Financialization and Commodity Market Stability," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 12(4), pages 33-42, December.
    49. Bruzda, Joanna, 2019. "Complex analytic wavelets in the measurement of macroeconomic risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    50. Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
    51. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    52. Patnaik, Ila & Mittal, Shalini & Pandey, Radhika, 2019. "Examining the trade-off between price and financial stability in India," Working Papers 19/248, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    53. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    54. Timothy Bianco & Ryan Eiben & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong & Jing Wang, 2011. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Working Papers (Old Series) 1129, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    55. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2010. "Forecasting The Romanian Financial System Stability Using A Stochastic Simulation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-98, March.
    56. Franco Bruni, 2011. "Rules for Money and Rules for Finance: A New Relationship After the Crisis?," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Green & Eric J. Pentecost & Tom Weyman-Jones (ed.), The Financial Crisis and the Regulation of Finance, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    57. Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2013. "Policy in adaptive financial markets—the use of systemic risk early warning tools," Working Papers (Old Series) 1309, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    58. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2013. "Atypical behavior of credit: Evidence from a monetary VAR," IMFS Working Paper Series 70, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    59. Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Stephen Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
    60. Juan Francisco Martínez & José Miguel Matus & Daniel Oda, 2018. "Taxonomy of Chilean Financial Fragility Periods from 1975 to 2017," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 822, Central Bank of Chile.
    61. Bank for International Settlements, 2010. "Macroprudential instruments and frameworks: a stocktaking of issues and experiences," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 38, december.
    62. Berlinger, Edina & Váradi, Kata & Dömötör, Barbara & Illés, Ferenc, 2016. "A tőzsdei elszámolóházak vesztesége [The loss from central clearing houses]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 993-1010.
    63. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    64. Obregon, Carlos, 2018. "Globalization misguided views," MPRA Paper 85813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Lukas Wiechers, 2022. "An Early Indicator for Anomalous Stock Market Performance," Working Papers CIE 153, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    66. Eric Tymoigne, 2006. "Asset Prices, Financial Fragility, and Central Banking," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_456, Levy Economics Institute.
    67. Ronny Mazzocchi, 2013. "Scope and Flaws of the New Neoclassical Synthesis," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/13, Department of Economics and Management.
    68. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in the US: The Role of Asset Prices," Working papers 2013-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    69. Blaise Gadanecz & Kaushik Jayaram, 2009. "Measures of financial stability - a review," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring financial innovation and its impact", Basel, 26-27 August 2008, volume 31, pages 365-380, Bank for International Settlements.
    70. Gernát, Peter & Košťálová, Zuzana & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2020. "What drives U.S. financial sector volatility? A Bayesian model averaging perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    71. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    72. Magdalena Erdem & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2013. "Financial conditions and economic activity: a statistical approach," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    73. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2012. "A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1228-1241.
    74. Ionut Mircea, 2015. "Macroprudential policies on banking system," Manager Journal, Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, vol. 21(1), pages 86-105, May.
    75. Marius Constantin Apostoaie, 2010. "Consideration on the price stability – financial stability relationship in the context of financial globalization," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
    76. Ronny Mazzocchi, 2013. "Intertemporal Coordination Failure and Monetary Policy," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/15, Department of Economics and Management.
    77. Mejía Cubillos, Javier, 2012. "Medición del riesgo sistémico financiero en estudios de historia económica : propuesta metodológica y aplicación para la banca libre en Antioquia, 1888," Borradores Departamento de Economía 17481, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    78. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Amanda C. Janosko & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "Supervising System Stress in Multiple Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    79. Lo Luca, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    80. Marie Brière & Kamal Chancari, 2004. "Perception des risques sur les marchés, construction d'un indice élaboré à partir des smiles d'options et test de stratégies," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(4), pages 527-555.
    81. Jan Kakes & Cees Ullersma, 2003. "Financial stability in low-inflation environments," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 355-367, Bank for International Settlements.
    82. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, 2021. "Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics: Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2021/028, International Monetary Fund.
    83. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.

  24. Fischer, Andreas & Dueker, Michael, 2001. "The Mechanics of a Successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons for emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Bushra Naqvi & Nawazish Mirza, 2013. "Choice of Anchor Currencies and Dynamic Preferences for Exchange Rate Pegging in Asia," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 37-49, July-Dec.
    2. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Sep), pages 431-450.
    3. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 2003/223, International Monetary Fund.

  25. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Working Papers 2001-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Brown, William Jr. & Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2006. "Volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 693-707, March.
    2. Deba Prasad Rath & Rudra Sensarma, 2006. "Money-Price Variability and Asset Prices Volatility: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 4(2), pages 59-74, July.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Obregon, Carlos, 2018. "Globalización visiones equivocadas [Globalization misguided views]," MPRA Paper 86396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. M.Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can this time be different? Policy options in times of rising debt," CAMA Working Papers 2020-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    7. Angela Roman & Irina Bilan, 2009. "The monetary policy and the financial stability in the context of globalization," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 143-156, November.
    8. Zelazny Jan, 2016. "Financialization and Commodity Market Stability," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 12(4), pages 33-42, December.
    9. Shakir, Tamarah & Tong, Matthew, 2014. "The interaction of the FPC and the MPC," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(4), pages 396-408.
    10. Campbell, Gareth & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2016. "This time is different: Causes and consequences of British banking instability over the long run," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 74-94.
    11. Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Stephen Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
    12. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "What Explains House Price Booms?: History and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Obregon, Carlos, 2018. "Globalization misguided views," MPRA Paper 85813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & Turner, John D., 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in the US: The Role of Asset Prices," Working papers 2013-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    16. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    17. Marius Constantin Apostoaie, 2010. "Consideration on the price stability – financial stability relationship in the context of financial globalization," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
    18. Giandomenico Piluso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy. Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks been Procyclical in the Long-Run?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2442, CESifo.

  26. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Bernd Süssmuth, 2002. "National and Supranational Business Cycles (1960-2000): A multivariate description of central G7 and EURO15 NIPA aggregates," CESifo Working Paper Series 658, CESifo.
    3. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    4. Marek Lubiński, 2007. "International Business Cycle," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 1(2), June.

  27. Fischer, Andreas & Dueker, Michael, 2000. "Austria's Hard-Currency Policy: The Mechanics of Successful Exchange-Rate Peg," CEPR Discussion Papers 2478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Dueker & Andreas Fischer, 2001. "The Mechanics of a successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons from Emerging Markets," Working Papers 01.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.

  28. Michael J. Dueker & Apostolos Serletis, 2000. "Do real exchange rates have autoregressive unit roots? a test under the alternative of long memory and breaks," Working Papers 2000-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. McMillan, David G. & Wohar, Mark E., 2010. "Persistence and time-varying coefficients," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 85-88, July.
    2. Ata Assaf, 2006. "Nonlinear Trend Stationarity in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Nonlinear ADF tests," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 283-294, November.
    3. Ata Assaf, 2004. "Rescaled variance analysis of real exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 303-306.
    4. Stefan Norrbin & Aaron Smallwood, 2010. "Generalized long memory and mean reversion of the real exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1377-1386.
    5. Coe, Patrick J. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2002. "Bounds tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 179-199, January.
    6. Luis Gil-Alana, 2004. "The dynamics of the real exchange rates in Europe: a comparative study across countries using fractional integration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 429-432.
    7. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing the Unit Root Hypothesis When the Alternative is a Trend Break Stationary Process: An Application to Tourist Arrivals in Fiji," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 351-364, September.
    8. Narayan Paresh K & Prasad Biman Chand, 2005. "The Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis for Eleven Middle Eastern Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 44-58, August.
    9. Assaf, Ata, 2008. "Nonstationarity in real exchange rates using unit root tests with a level shift at unknown time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 269-278.

  29. Michael J. Dueker, 1998. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in qualitative response models of time series: a Gibbs sampling approach to the bank prime rate," Working Papers 1998-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Stability: The United Kingdom 1796-1999," NBER Working Papers 8583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Working Papers 192, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
    4. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos & Tsionas, Mike, 2019. "Ordinal-response GARCH models for transaction data: A forecasting exercise," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1273-1287.
    5. Rami Zwick & Amnon Rapoport & Alison King Chung Lo & A. V. Muthukrishnan, 2003. "Consumer Sequential Search: Not Enough or Too Much?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 503-519, October.
    6. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos & Dey, Dipak K., 2017. "Discrete-response state space models with conditional heteroscedasticity: An application to forecasting the federal funds rate target," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 20-23.
    7. Galariotis, Emilios & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2018. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on expectations and sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-20.
    8. George Monokroussos, 2006. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 06-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis," NBER Historical Working Papers 0125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2007. "Forecasting Changes in UK Interest Rates," Discussion Paper Series 2007_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Nov 2007.
    11. Fossati Sebastian, 2016. "Dating US business cycles with macro factors," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 529-547, December.
    12. Graflund, Andreas, 2001. "Are the Nordic Stock Markets Mean Reverting?," Working Papers 2001:15, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    13. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Neil Shephard & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2003. "Likelihood-based estimation of latent generalised ARCH structures," FMG Discussion Papers dp453, Financial Markets Group.
    16. George Monokroussos, 2006. "A Dynamic Tobit Model for the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 390, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Andreas Graflund, 2000. "A Bayes Inference Approach to Testing Mean Reversion in the Swedish Stock Market," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1363, Econometric Society.
    18. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    19. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
    20. Michael J. Dueker, 2000. "Are prime rate changes asymmetric?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Sep), pages 33-40.
    21. Rami Zwick & Amnon Rapoport & Alison King Chung Lo & A. V. Muthukrishnan, 2001. "Consumer Search: Not Enough Or Too Much?," Experimental 0110002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Andrei Sirchenko, 2019. "A regime-switching model for the federal funds rate target," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 19-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    23. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
    24. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    25. George Monokroussos, 2009. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Discussion Papers 09-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    26. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "A model for the federal funds rate target," Department of Economics 99-07, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    27. Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Staff Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada.
    28. Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
    29. Michael Dueker, 2005. "Dynamic Forecasts of Qualitative Variables: A Qual VAR Model of U.S. Recessions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 96-104, January.
    30. Xiong, Yingge & Tobias, Justin L. & Mannering, Fred L., 2014. "The analysis of vehicle crash injury-severity data: A Markov switching approach with road-segment heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 109-128.
    31. Geweke, John, 2007. "Interpretation and inference in mixture models: Simple MCMC works," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3529-3550, April.
    32. Michael J. Dueker & Charles R. Nelson, 2003. "Business cycle detrending of macroeconomic data via a latent business cycle index," Working Papers 2002-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  30. Michael J. Dueker & Gyuhan Kim, 1998. "A monetary policy feedback rule in Korea's fast-growing economy," Working Papers 1998-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    2. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    4. Ronald Henry Lange, 2017. "Macroeconomic Switching Regimes and Monetary Policy in Canada," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 17-31, July.
    5. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "What does South Korean inflation targeting target?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 526-539, December.
    6. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2009. "Characterising the inflation targeting regime in South Korea," Working Paper Series 1004, European Central Bank.
    7. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.

  31. Michael J. Dueker & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical mark-up?," Working Papers 1997-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "Market power in banking, countercyclical margins and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 292-301, March.
    2. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Shah Hussein & Amna Saeed & Amer Hassan, 2011. "The Financial Accelerator: An Emerging Market Story," Working Papers id:4551, eSocialSciences.
    4. Vincenzo Cuciniello & Federico M. Signoretti, 2015. "Large Banks, Loan Rate Markup, and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 141-177, June.
    5. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle," Economics working papers 2006-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. Kévin Beaubrun-Diant & Fabien Tripier, 2009. "The Credit Spread Cycle with Matching Friction," Working Papers hal-00430809, HAL.
    7. Lorenza Rossi, 2018. "The Overshooting of Firms Destruction, Banks and Productivity Shocks," DEM Working Papers Series 147, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2016. "Endogenous credit standards and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 89-111.
    9. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2006. "La sensibilité de l'activité bancaire aux chocs macroéconomiques : une analyse en panel sur des données de banques luxembourgeoises," BCL working papers 21, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "The cyclicality of interest rate spreads in Austria: Evidence for a financial decelerator?," Economics working papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

  32. Michael J. Dueker & Richard Startz, 1997. "Maximum-likelihood estimation of fractional cointegration with application to the short end of the yield curve," Working Papers 1994-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2003. "Cointégration fractionnaire entre la consommation et le revenu," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 158(2), pages 123-142.

  33. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Markov switching in GARCH processes and mean reverting stock market volatility," Working Papers 1994-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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    1. Leopoldo Catania & Nima Nonejad, 2016. "Density Forecasts and the Leverage Effect: Some Evidence from Observation and Parameter-Driven Volatility Models," Papers 1605.00230, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    2. Mullen, Katharine M. & Ardia, David & Gil, David L. & Windover, Donald & Cline, James, 2009. "DEoptim: An R Package for Global Optimization by Differential Evolution," MPRA Paper 21743, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Dec 2010.
    3. Luc Bauwens & Arie Preminger & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2007. "Theory and Inference for a Markov-Switching GARCH Model," Cahiers de recherche 0733, CIRPEE.
    4. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    5. Heidari , Hassan & Refah-Kahriz, Arash & Hashemi Berenjabadi, Nayyer, 2018. "Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Return Volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange: Multivariate MS ARMA GARCH Approach," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 5(2), pages 223-250, August.
    6. S. Bordignon & D. Raggi, 2010. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: a Markov switching approach," Working Papers 694, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2012. "Efficient Gibbs Sampling for Markov Switching GARCH Models," Working Papers 2012:35, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    8. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Riccardo De Blasis & Filippo Petroni, 2021. "Price Leadership and Volatility Linkages between Oil and Renewable Energy Firms during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2021. "A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, May.
    11. Rey, Clément & Rey, Serge & Viala, Jean-Renaud, 2014. "Detection of high and low states in stock market returns with MCMC method in a Markov switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 145-155.
    12. Augustyniak, Maciej, 2014. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the Markov-switching GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 61-75.
    13. Kuang-Liang Chang & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2021. "How did the asset markets change after the Global Financial Crisis?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    14. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & van Dellen, Stefan, 2015. "A regime switching approach for hedging tanker shipping freight rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 44-59.
    15. Ataurima Arellano, Miguel & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "Empirical modeling of high-income and emerging stock and Forex market return volatility using Markov-switching GARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Jędrzej Białkowski & Huong Dieu Dang & Xiaopeng Wei, 2017. "Does the Tail Wag the Dog? Evidence from Fund Flow to VIX ETFs and ETNs," Working Papers in Economics 17/17, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    17. Philippe Charlot & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Working Papers hal-00980125, HAL.
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    20. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Matteo Iacopini, 2018. "Bayesian Markov Switching Tensor Regression for Time-varying Networks," Working Papers 2018:14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    21. Hyun Kook Shin & Byoung Hark Yoo, 2012. "The Volatility Of The Won-Dollar Exchange Rate During The 2008-9 Crisis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 61-77, December.
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    25. Özbekler, Ali Gencay & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Volatility Forecasting in European Government Bond Markets," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 27362, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    26. David Ardia & Lennart F. Hoogerheide, 2010. "Efficient Bayesian Estimation and Combination of GARCH-Type Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-046/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    27. Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Volatility regime-switching in European exchange rates prior to monetary unification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 240-270, March.
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    32. Libo Xu & Apostolos Serletis, "undated". "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching with Time-Varying Volatilities," Working Papers 2016-34, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 13 Jun 2016.
    33. Martin T. Bohl & Jeanne Diesteldorf & Christian A. Salm & Bernd Wilfling, 2014. "Spot Market Volatility and Futures Trading: The Pitfalls of Using a Dummy Variable Approach," CQE Working Papers 3514, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    34. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    35. Meulemann, Max & Uebele, Martin & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The restoration of the gold standard after the US Civil War: A volatility analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 37-46.
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    39. Maciej Augustyniak & Mathieu Boudreault & Manuel Morales, 2018. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Markov-Switching GARCH Model Based on a General Collapsing Procedure," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 165-188, March.
    40. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2022. "Do economic policy uncertainty indices matter in joint volatility cycles between U.S. and Japanese stock markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    41. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2013. "Forecasting hedge fund volatility: a Markov regime-switching approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 243-275, April.
    42. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrei & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime switching approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 32-50.
    43. Cathy W. S. Chen & Mike K. P. So & Edward M. H. Lin, 2009. "Volatility forecasting with double Markov switching GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 681-697.
    44. Daniel King & Ferdi Botha, 2014. "Modelling Stock Return Volatility Dynamics in Selected African Markets," Working Papers 410, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    45. Luc, BAUWENS & Arie, PREMINGER & Jeroen, ROMBOUTS, 2006. "Regime switching GARCH models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    46. Abba, Junaid & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does oil impact Islamic stock markets ? evidence from MENA countries based on wavelet and markov switching approaches," MPRA Paper 95693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
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    1. Ali Kutan, 1998. "Dynamics of parallel and official exchange rates: The experience of hungary," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 54-65, March.
    2. Luis Gil-Alana & Pedro Mendi, 2005. "Fractional integration in total factor productivity: evidence from US data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1369-1383.

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    1. Nelson, Edward, 2008. "Ireland and Switzerland: The jagged edges of the Great Inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 700-732, May.
    2. Michael Dueker & Andreas Fischer, 2001. "The Mechanics of a successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons from Emerging Markets," Working Papers 01.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
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    4. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    5. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1998. "A guide to nominal feedback rules and their use for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-63.
    6. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    7. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
    8. Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger & Eric Zivot, 2001. "Markov regime switching and unit root tests," Working Papers 2001-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas, 1998. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Does the EMS Participation Play Any Role?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 586-605.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2009. "Announcements and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A view from the US prime rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2253-2266, December.
    2. Li, Xiao-Lin & Si, Deng-Kui & Ge, Xinyu, 2021. "China’s interest rate pass-through after the interest rate liberalization: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 257-274.

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  2. Osvaldo C. Silva Filho & Flavio A. Ziegelmann & Michael J. Dueker, 2014. "Assessing dependence between financial market indexes using conditional time-varying copulas: applications to Value at Risk (VaR)," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2155-2170, December.

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    2. Shirazi, Masoud, 2022. "Assessing energy trilemma-related policies: The world's large energy user evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Wafa Miled & Zied Ftiti & Jean-Michel Sahut, 2022. "Spatial contagion between financial markets: new evidence of asymmetric measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1183-1220, June.
    4. Wenming Shi & Kevin X. Li & Zhongzhi Yang & Ganggang Wang, 2017. "Time-varying copula models in the shipping derivatives market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1039-1058, November.
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    6. Peng, Wei & Hu, Shichao & Chen, Wang & Zeng, Yu-feng & Yang, Lu, 2019. "Modeling the joint dynamic value at risk of the volatility index, oil price, and exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 137-149.
    7. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bao-Jun Tang & Rong-Gang Cong & Hao Yu & Hong Cao & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 102, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    8. He, Kaijian & Liu, Youjin & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2016. "Multiscale dependence analysis and portfolio risk modeling for precious metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-233.
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    10. Han, Yingying & Gong, Pu & Zhou, Xiang, 2016. "Correlations and risk contagion between mixed assets and mixed-asset portfolio VaR measurements in a dynamic view: An application based on time varying copula models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 940-953.
    11. Marcela de Marillac Carvalho & Luiz Otávio de Oliveira Pala & Gabriel Rodrigo Gomes Pessanha & Thelma Sáfadi, 2021. "Asymmetric dependence of intraday frequency components in the Brazilian stock market," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-18, June.
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    14. Jiang, Kunliang & Ye, Wuyi, 2022. "Does the asymmetric dependence volatility affect risk spillovers between the crude oil market and BRICS stock markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Sabino da Silva, Fernando A.B. & Ziegelmann, Flavio A. & Caldeira, João F., 2023. "A pairs trading strategy based on mixed copulas," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 16-34.
    16. Bai, Xiwen & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "A copula-GARCH approach for analyzing dynamic conditional dependency structure between liquefied petroleum gas freight rate, product price arbitrage and crude oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 412-427.
    17. Ki-Hong Choi & Insin Kim, 2021. "Co-Movement between Tourist Arrivals of Inbound Tourism Markets in South Korea: Applying the Dynamic Copula Method Using Secondary Time Series Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-13, January.

  3. Michael J. Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2013. "State-Dependent Threshold Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 835-854, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Min Gan & C.L. Philip Chen & Long Chen & Chun-Yang Zhang, 2016. "Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 1868-1876, June.
    2. Lixiong Yang & Chingnun Lee & I‐Po Chen, 2021. "Threshold model with a time‐varying threshold based on Fourier approximation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 406-430, July.
    3. Lixiong Yang, 2023. "Variable selection in threshold model with a covariate-dependent threshold," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 189-202, July.
    4. Yang, Lixiong & Su, Jen-Je, 2018. "Debt and growth: Is there a constant tipping point?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 133-143.
    5. Lixiong Yang, 2020. "State-dependent biases and the quality of China’s preliminary GDP announcements," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2663-2687, December.
    6. Nauro Campos & Ekaterina Glebkina & Menelaos Karanasos & Panagiotis Koutroumpis, 2023. "Financial Development, Political Instability, Trade Openness and Growth in Brazil: Evidence from a New Dataset, 1890-2003," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 831-861, September.
    7. Zhu Yanli & Chen Haiqiang & Lin Ming, 2019. "Threshold models with time-varying threshold values and their application in estimating regime-sensitive Taylor rules," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(5), pages 1-17, December.

  4. Silva Filho, Osvaldo Candido da & Ziegelmann, Flavio Augusto & Dueker, Michael J., 2012. "Modeling dependence dynamics through copulas with regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 346-356.

    Cited by:

    1. Bartels, Mariana & Ziegelmann, Flavio A., 2016. "Market risk forecasting for high dimensional portfolios via factor copulas with GAS dynamics," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 66-79.
    2. Jayech, Selma, 2016. "The contagion channels of July–August-2011 stock market crash: A DAG-copula based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 631-646.
    3. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock returns: Evidence from the Markov switching dependence approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Woraphon Yamaka & Paravee Maneejuk, 2020. "Analyzing the Causality and Dependence between Gold Shocks and Asian Emerging Stock Markets: A Smooth Transition Copula Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, January.
    5. Govindan, Rajesh & Al-Ansari, Tareq, 2019. "Computational decision framework for enhancing resilience of the energy, water and food nexus in risky environments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 653-668.
    6. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "Risk spillovers and interconnectedness between systemically important institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2023. "The low-magnitude and high-magnitude asymmetries in tail dependence structures in international equity markets and the role of bilateral exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Constantino, Michel & Candido, Osvaldo & Tabak, Benjamin M. & da Costa, Reginaldo Brito, 2017. "Modeling stochastic frontier based on vine copulas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 595-609.
    9. Aepli, Matthias D. & Füss, Roland & Henriksen, Tom Erik S. & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2017. "Modeling the multivariate dynamic dependence structure of commodity futures portfolios," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 66-87.
    10. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2017. "Price co-movement and the crack spread in the US futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 57-71.
    11. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2019. "Gold-Oil Dependence Dynamics and the Role of Geopolitical Risks: Evidence from a Markov-Switching Time-Varying Copula Model," Working Papers 201918, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "Re-examination of risk-return dynamics in international equity markets and the role of policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and VIX: Evidence using Markov-switching copulas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    13. Li, Xiafei & Wei, Yu, 2018. "The dependence and risk spillover between crude oil market and China stock market: New evidence from a variational mode decomposition-based copula method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 565-581.
    14. Guoxiang Xu & Wangfeng Gao, 2019. "Financial Risk Contagion in Stock Markets: Causality and Measurement Aspects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Gozgor, Giray & Tiwari, Aviral & Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2019. "Dependence Structure between Business Cycles and CO2 Emissions in the U.S.: Evidence from the Time-Varying Markov-Switching Copula Models," MPRA Paper 95971, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Sep 2019.
    16. BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2018. "The contagion effect in European sovereign debt markets: A regime-switching vine copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 153-165.
    17. Sanjay Sehgal & Piyush Pandey & Florent Deisting, 2018. "Stock Market Integration Dynamics and its Determinants in the East Asian Economic Community Region," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 389-425, June.
    18. Anna Czapkiewicz & Pawel Jamer & Joanna Landmesser, 2018. "Effects of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Financial Markets Interrelations," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(3), pages 268-293, July.
    19. Jiang, Cuixia & Ding, Xiaoyi & Xu, Qifa & Tong, Yongbo, 2020. "A TVM-Copula-MIDAS-GARCH model with applications to VaR-based portfolio selection," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Risk spillover between the US and the remaining G7 stock markets using time-varying copulas with Markov switching: Evidence from over a century of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    21. Semih Emre Cekin & Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Measuring Co-Dependencies of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Latin American Countries using Vine Copulas," Working Papers 201867, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    22. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
    23. Fousekis, Panos, 2017. "Price co-movement and the hedger's value-at-risk in the futures markets for coffee," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 0(Issue 1), January.
    24. Holger Fink & Yulia Klimova & Claudia Czado & Jakob Stober, 2016. "Regime switching vine copula models for global equity and volatility indices," Papers 1604.05598, arXiv.org.
    25. Shoukun Jiao & Wuyi Ye, 2022. "Dependence and Systemic Risk Analysis Between S&P 500 Index and Sector Indexes: A Conditional Value-at-Risk Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 1203-1229, March.
    26. Tófoli, Paula Virgínia & Ziegelmann, Flávio Augusto & Silva Filho, Osvaldo Candido & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2016. "Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)," Textos para discussão 424, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    27. Aepli, Matthias D. & Frauendorfer, Karl & Fuess, Roland & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2015. "Multivariate Dynamic Copula Models: Parameter Estimation and Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers on Finance 1513, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    28. Kira Henshaw & Waleed Hana & Corina Constantinescu & Dalia Khalil, 2023. "Dependence Modelling of Lifetimes in Egyptian Families," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, January.
    29. Yao, Can-Zhong & Sun, Bo-Yi, 2018. "The study on the tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty and several financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-265.
    30. Oliveira, André Barbosa & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2018. "Uncertainty times for portfolio selection at financial market," Textos para discussão 473, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    31. Paula V. Tofoli & Flavio A. Ziegelmann & Osvaldo Candido, 2017. "A Comparison Study of Copula Models for Europea Financial Index Returns," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(10), pages 155-178, October.
    32. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Aubin, Christian & Goyeau, Daniel & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Extreme co-movements and dependencies among major international exchange rates: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 56-69.
    33. Tan Le & Franck Martin & Duc Nguyen, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of global currencies: a conditional Granger-causality approach," Working Papers hal-01806733, HAL.
    34. Thijs Markwat, 2014. "The rise of global stock market crash probabilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 557-571, April.
    35. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2016. "Spatial price dependence by time scale: Empirical evidence from the international butter markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 195-204.
    36. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2017. "Does REIT index hedge inflation risk? New evidence from the tail quantile dependences of the Markov-switching GRG copula," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 56-67.
    37. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Le, TN-Lan & Leyva-de la Hiz, Dante I., 2021. "Markov-switching dependence between artificial intelligence and carbon price: The role of policy uncertainty in the era of the 4th industrial revolution and the effect of COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    38. Holger Fink & Yulia Klimova & Claudia Czado & Jakob Stöber, 2017. "Regime Switching Vine Copula Models for Global Equity and Volatility Indices," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-38, January.
    39. Aristeidis, Samitas & Elias, Kampouris, 2018. "Empirical analysis of market reactions to the UK’s referendum results – How strong will Brexit be?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 263-286.
    40. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Albulescu, Claudiu T. & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Empirical evidence of extreme dependence and contagion risk between main cryptocurrencies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    41. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "Time-varying dependence dynamics between international commodity prices and Australian industry stock returns: a Perspective for portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    42. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2020. "An investigation on mixed housing-cycle structures and asymmetric tail dependences," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

  5. Dueker, Michael J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2011. "Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 311-325, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Dueker Michael J. & Psaradakis Zacharias & Sola Martin & Spagnolo Fabio, 2011. "Contemporaneous-Threshold Smooth Transition GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Belaygorod, Anatoliy & Dueker, Michael, 2009. "Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 624-648, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Foroni & Paolo Gelain & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The financial accelerator mechanism: does frequency matter?," Working Papers 22-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Vasco Curdia & Daria Finocchiaro, 2012. "Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 2013-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Lin, Yo-Long, 2017. "Is the price path learnable under a fixed exchange rate regime?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 355-366.
    4. Mr. Roger Farmer & Mr. Vadim Khramov, 2013. "Solving and Estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models," IMF Working Papers 2013/200, International Monetary Fund.
    5. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Giuliano Queiroz Ferreira & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2022. "Regime-dependent price puzzle in the Brazilian economy: evidence from VAR and FAVAR approaches," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-28, September.
    7. Muhanji, Stella & Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Price and liquidity puzzles of a monetary shock: Evidence from indebted African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 620-630.
    8. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Florio, Anna, 2018. "Nominal anchors and the price puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 224-237.
    10. Anna Florio, 2018. "Unmoored expectations and the price puzzle," DEM Working Papers Series 154, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    11. Zheng, Tingguo & Guo, Huiming, 2013. "Estimating a small open economy DSGE model with indeterminacy: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 642-652.
    12. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    13. Bruce McGough & Ryuichi Nakagawa, 2019. "Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 005, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.

  9. Dueker Michael & Fischer Andreas & Dittmar Robert, 2007. "Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Co-movement of Hours and Productivity," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-24, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Dueker, Michael & Neely, Christopher J., 2007. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 279-296, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Dueker, Michael J. & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2007. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: Estimation, testing and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 517-547, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "The price puzzle: an update and a lesson," National Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct.

    Cited by:

    1. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2016. "Investigating United Kingdom's monetary policy with Macro-Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 117-127.

  13. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Sep), pages 431-450.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Patricia Toledo, 2022. "Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study," Globalization Institute Working Papers 418, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Baltensperger, Ernst & Fischer, Andreas M. & Jordan, Thomas J., 2007. "Strong goal independence and inflation targets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 88-105, March.
    3. Beja, Edsel Jr., 2007. "Win or Lose, it’s the policy we choose: Comparative economic performance of the inflation targeters," MPRA Paper 4833, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Sep 2007.
    4. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343, Elsevier.
    5. Zied Ftiti & Walid Hichri, 2014. "The Price Stability Under Inflation Targeting Regime : An Analysis With a New Intermediate Approach," Working Papers 2014-99, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Anthony Kyereboah‐Coleman, 2012. "Inflation targeting and inflation management in Ghana," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 25-40, April.
    7. Hakan Berument & Richard T. Froyen, 2015. "Monetary policy and interest rates under inflation targeting in Australia and New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 171-188, August.
    8. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "Short- and Long-Run Differences in the Treatment Effects of Inflation Targeting on Developed and Developing Countries," Working papers 2009-14, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2010.
    9. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    10. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    11. Metin Ozdemir & Selim Tuzunturk, 2009. "Is price stability enough? Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in developing countries," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(4), pages 352-372.
    12. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 200810, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    13. Rose, Andrew & Mihov, Ilian, 2007. "Is Old Money Better than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 6529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    15. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2010. "What Monetary Policy after the Crisis?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 499-515.
    17. Stephen M. Miller & WenShwo Fang & Ozkan Eren, 2012. "Inflation Targeting: Does It Improve Economic Performance?," Working Papers 1207, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    18. Nathan Perry & Nathaniel Cline, 2013. "Wages, Exchange Rates, and the Great Inflation Moderation: A Post-Keynesian View," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_759, Levy Economics Institute.
    19. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    21. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Around the World," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 17-37, November.
    22. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Evaluation: Short-run Costs and Long-run Irrelevance," Working Papers 0920, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    23. Mevlut Tatliyer, 2017. "Inflation targeting and the need for a new central banking framework," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 512-539, October.
    24. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    25. Bohl, Martin & Mayes, David G. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.
    26. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2017. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-62.
    27. Nathan Perry & Nathaniel Cline, 2016. "What caused the great inflation moderation in the US? A post-Keynesian view," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 475-502, October.

  14. Dueker, Michael, 2006. "Kalman filtering with truncated normal state variables for Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 58-62, October. See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Mar), pages 145-154.

    Cited by:

    1. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  16. Dueker, Michael & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Business-Cycle Filtering Of Macroeconomic Data Via A Latent Business-Cycle Index," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 573-594, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Michael Dueker & Ada Jacox & David Kalist & Stephen Spurr, 2005. "The Practice Boundaries of Advanced Practice Nurses: An Economic and Legal Analysis," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 309-330, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Michael Dueker, 2005. "Dynamic Forecasts of Qualitative Variables: A Qual VAR Model of U.S. Recessions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 96-104, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2005. "Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 719-734.

    Cited by:

    1. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    2. Fabio Milani, 2006. "The Evolution of the Fed's Inflation Target in an Estimated Model under RE and Learning," Working Papers 060704, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    3. Pablo Pincheira & Mauricio Calani, 2009. "Communicational Bias In Monetary Policy: Can Words Forecast Deeds?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 526, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Calani, Mauricio, 2007. "Testing Globalization-Disinflation Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 4787, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2007.
    7. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    8. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "What are monetary policy shocks?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1086, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "What are monetary policy shocks?," Economic Research Papers 270008, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

  20. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2005. "Open mouth operations: a Swiss case study," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan.

    Cited by:

    1. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 507-518.
    2. Fischer, Andreas & Amstad, Marlene, 2005. "Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts Based on Daily Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 5008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  21. Michael J. Dueker & Robert H. Rasche, 2004. "Discrete policy changes and empirical models of the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Nov), pages 61-72.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty About the Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Activity," Working Papers 522, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2005. "Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 719-734.
    3. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Edward S. Knotek, 2019. "Changing Policy Rule Parameters Implied by the Median SEP Paths," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue April.
    5. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Siddhartha Chib & Michael Dueker & Anatoliy Belaygorod, 2005. "Structural Breaks in Estimated DSGE Models with Indeterminacy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 357, Society for Computational Economics.

  22. Michael Dueker & Thomas W. Miller Jr., 2003. "Directly measuring early exercise premiums using American and European S&P 500 Index options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 287-313, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2003. "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Their Synchronicity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 116-131, January.

    Cited by:

    1. George Monokroussos, 2006. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 06-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    2. George Monokroussos, 2006. "A Dynamic Tobit Model for the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 390, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2009. "Monetary policy in the euro area - has it become more powerful on the road to EMU?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1801-1804.
    4. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, January.
    5. Peiro, Amado, 2005. "Economic comovements in European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 575-584, July.
    6. Andreas Brunhart, 2017. "Are Microstates Necessarily Led by Their Bigger Neighbors’ Business Cycle? The Case of Liechtenstein and Switzerland," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, May.
    7. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Esashi, Kunihiko & Onozaki, Tamotsu & Saiki, Yoshitaka & Sato, Yuzuru, 2018. "Intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization in multi-regional business cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-76.
    9. U. Bergman, 2008. "Finnish and Swedish business cycles in a global context," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 49-69, July.

  24. Dueker, Michael J. & Fischer, Andreas M., 2003. "Fixing Swiss potholes: The importance and cyclical nature of improvements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 409-415, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Bordo, Michael D. & Dueker, Michael J. & Wheelock, David C., 2003. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 143-169, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Michael J. Dueker, 2002. "The monetary policy innovation paradox in VARs: a \\"discrete\\" explanation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Mar.), pages 43-50.

    Cited by:

    1. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2004. "Forward-Looking Information in VAR Models and the Price Puzzle," Working Papers 10, Bank of Greece.
    2. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2005. "Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 719-734.
    3. Edward S. Knotek, 2019. "Changing Policy Rule Parameters Implied by the Median SEP Paths," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue April.
    4. Michael J. Dueker & Robert H. Rasche, 2004. "Discrete policy changes and empirical models of the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Nov), pages 61-72.
    5. Siddhartha Chib & Michael Dueker & Anatoliy Belaygorod, 2005. "Structural Breaks in Estimated DSGE Models with Indeterminacy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 357, Society for Computational Economics.

  27. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Michael J. Dueker, 2002. "Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Nov), pages 29-36.

    Cited by:

    1. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    2. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
    3. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    4. George Monokroussos, 2009. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Discussion Papers 09-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    5. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    6. Mehdi Mostaghimi, 2004. "Monetary policy, composite leading economic indicators and predicting the 2001 recession," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 463-477.
    7. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    8. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

  29. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2001. "The mechanics of a successful exchange rate peg: lessons for emerging markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 47-56.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Michael J. Dueker, 2000. "Are prime rate changes asymmetric?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Sep), pages 33-40.

    Cited by:

    1. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    2. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2007. "Forecasting Changes in UK Interest Rates," Discussion Paper Series 2007_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Nov 2007.
    3. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2009. "Announcements and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A view from the US prime rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2253-2266, December.
    4. Jianzhou Zhu & Manfen Chen & Wanli Li, 2009. "Recent changes in the prime rate behavior," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 177-192, August.
    5. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2007. "Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 2006-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Gordon H. Sellon, 2002. "The changing U.S. financial system : some implications for the monetary transmission mechanism," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 87(Q I), pages 5-35.
    7. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Estimating the ECB policy reaction function," Munich Reprints in Economics 19941, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    8. Heung Soon Jung & Dong Jin Lee & Tae Hyo Gwon & Se Jin Yun, 2015. "Reference Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Korea," Working Papers 2015-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    9. James M. O'Brien, 2000. "Estimating the value and interest rate risk of interest-bearing transactions deposits," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Osama D. Sweidan, 2008. "Does Policy Interest Rate Have Asymmetric Adjustment: Case Of Jordan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 151-158.
    11. Su, Chi Wei & Chang, Hsu Ling, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the Lending-Deposit Rate Spread: Evidence from Eastern European Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 165-175, July.
    12. Li, Xiao-Lin & Si, Deng-Kui & Ge, Xinyu, 2021. "China’s interest rate pass-through after the interest rate liberalization: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 257-274.

  31. Butler, Alison & Dueker, Michael, 1999. "Does foreign innovation affect domestic wage inequality?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-89, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Franz, 1999. "Real and Monetary Challenges to Wage Policy in Germany at the Turn of the Millennium: Technical Progress, Globalization and European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 200, CESifo.
    2. Tao Tang & Lizeth Cuesta & Brayan Tillaguango & Rafael Alvarado & Abdul Rehman & Diana Bravo-Benavides & Natalia Zárate, 2022. "Causal Link between Technological Innovation and Inequality Moderated by Public Spending, Manufacturing, Agricultural Employment, and Export Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    4. Ruffin, Roy J., 2001. "Quasi-specific factors: worker comparative advantage in the two-sector production model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 445-461, April.
    5. Lahiri, Bidisha & Han, Luyi, 2020. "Effect of product obsolescence on wages: Role of international trade and skill levels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    6. Gagliardi, Luisa, 2019. "The impact of foreign technological innovation on domestic employment via the industry mix," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1523-1533.
    7. Robbins, Donald J., 2003. "The impact of trade liberalization upon inequality in developing countries : a review of theory and evidence," ILO Working Papers 993650553402676, International Labour Organization.
    8. Mara GRASSENI, 2004. "Technology, MNEs activity and Italian skill upgrading," Departmental Working Papers 2004-25, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    9. Carsten Ochsen, 2006. "Zukunft der Arbeit und Arbeit der Zukunft in Deutschland," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(2), pages 173-193, May.

  32. Dueker, Michael, 1999. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Qualitative Response Models of Time Series: A Gibbs-Sampling Approach to the Bank Prime Rate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 466-472, October. See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Dueker, Michael & Kim, Gyuhan, 1999. "A monetary policy feedback rule in Korea's fast-growing economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-31, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  34. Michael J. Dueker, 1999. "Measuring monetary policy inertia in target Fed funds rate changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Sep), pages 3-10.

    Cited by:

    1. Isela Elizabeth Téllez León & Francisco Venegas Martínez, 2013. "Principales determinantes en las decisiones de política monetaria de México: un análisis econométrico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 28(1), pages 79-108.
    2. Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres & David Shepherd, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Consistency of Monetary Policy Decisions in Mexico: an Empirical Analysis with Discrete Choice Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 21-46, December.
    3. Eric Girardin & Sandrine Lunven & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Inflation and China's monetary policy reaction function: 2002-2013," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 159-170, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Feunou Bruno & Fontaine Jean-Sébastien & Jin Jianjian, 2021. "What model for the target rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23, February.
    5. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    6. George Monokroussos, 2006. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 06-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    7. Seibert, Armin & Sirchenko, Andrei & Müller, Gernot, 2021. "A model for policy interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Huefner, Felix P & Friedrich Heinemann, 2003. "Is the View from the Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence and ECB Interest Rate Policy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 110, Royal Economic Society.
    11. George Monokroussos, 2006. "A Dynamic Tobit Model for the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 390, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Pauwels, Laurent L. & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2016. "A note on the estimation of optimal weights for density forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 391-397.
    13. Farvaque, Etienne & Malan, Franck & Stanek, Piotr, 2020. "Misplaced childhood: When recession children grow up as central bankers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Bayar, Omer, 2018. "Weak instruments and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-317.
    16. George Monokroussos, 2009. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Discussion Papers 09-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    17. Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.
    18. Ullrich, Katrin, 2006. "An impact of country-specific economic developments on ECB decisions," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-049, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Adrienne Kearney & Raymond Lombra, 2003. "Fed funds futures and the news," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 330-337, December.
    20. Jef Boeckx, 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions : A discrete choice approach," Working Paper Research 210, National Bank of Belgium.

  35. Michael Dueker & Richard Startz, 1998. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation Of Fractional Cointegration With An Application To U.S. And Canadian Bond Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 420-426, August.

    Cited by:

    1. M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-071/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Hassler, Uwe & Marmol, Francesc & Velasco, Carlos, 2009. "Residual Log-Periodogram Inference for Long-Run-Relationships," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77562, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    3. Nielsen, Morten Orregaard & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2007. "Determining the cointegrating rank in nonstationary fractional systems by the exact local Whittle approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 574-596, December.
    4. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ø. Nielsen, "undated". "Semiparametric Analysis of Stationary Fractional Cointegration and the Implied-Realized Volatility Relation in High-Frequency Options Data," Economics Working Papers 2001-4, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty: Persistence and Cross-Country Linkages," CESifo Working Paper Series 8289, CESifo.
    6. Tobias Hartl & Roland Weigand, 2018. "Multivariate Fractional Components Analysis," Papers 1812.09149, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    7. Javier Hualde & A Robinson, 2006. "Root-N-Consistent Estimation Of Weakfractional Cointegration," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /06/499, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    8. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Varneskov, Rasmus Tangsgaard, 2017. "Medium band least squares estimation of fractional cointegration in the presence of low-frequency contamination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 218-244.
    9. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Modelling the Japanese Exchange Rate in Terms of I(d) Statistical Models with Parametric and Semiparametric Techniques," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 123-138, August.
    10. Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, "undated". "Optimal Residual Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economics Working Papers 2002-7, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2003. "Computational aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 333-348, March.
    12. Boubaker, Heni & Zorgati, Mouna Ben Saad & Bannour, Nawres, 2021. "Interdependence between exchange rates: Evidence from multivariate analysis since the financial crisis to the COVID-19 crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 592-608.
    13. Celso Brunetti & Christopher L. Gilbert, 1999. "Bivariate FIGARCH and Fractional Cointegration," Working Papers 408, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Hurvich, Clifford & Wang, Yi, 2009. "A Pure-Jump Transaction-Level Price Model Yielding Cointegration, Leverage, and Nonsynchronous Trading Effects," MPRA Paper 12575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234.
    16. Breitung, Jörg & Hassler, Uwe, 2000. "Inference on the cointegration rank in fractionally integrated processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,65, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    17. Shimotsu, Katsumi & 下津, 克己, 2010. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractionally Cointegrated Systems," Discussion Papers 2010-11, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    18. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    19. Smallwood Aaron D, 2005. "Joint Tests for Non-linearity and Long Memory: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-30, June.
    20. Javier Haulde & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," CREATES Research Papers 2022-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    21. Davidson James E. H. & Peel David A & Byers J. David, 2006. "Support for Governments and Leaders: Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Poll Evidence from the UK, 1960-2004," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, March.
    22. de Truchis, Gilles, 2013. "Approximate Whittle analysis of fractional cointegration and the stock market synchronization issue," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-105.
    23. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
    24. Katarzyna Lasak, 2008. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fractionally cointegrated systems," CREATES Research Papers 2008-53, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    25. Howard Michael, 2002. "Causality Between Exports, Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 97-106.
    26. Hassler, Uwe & Breitung, Jörg, 2002. "A Residual-Based LM Test for Fractional Cointegration," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 37318, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    27. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2000. "Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,69, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    28. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    29. Dittmann, Ingolf, 1998. "Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares," Technical Reports 1998,40, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    30. Carlos Velasco, 2003. "Gaussian Semi‐parametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 345-378, May.
    31. Margherita Gerolimetto & Isabella Procidano, 2008. "A test for fractional cointegration using the sieve bootstrap," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 17(3), pages 373-391, July.
    32. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics.
    33. Alexander Boca Saravia & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Presidential approval in Peru: an empirical analysis using a fractionally cointegrated VAR," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1973-2010, August.
    34. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 2000. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 472, Boston College Department of Economics.
    35. Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2013. "A No‐Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 77-102, January.
    36. Quinn, Barry & Hanna, Alan & MacDonald, Fred, 2018. "Picking up the pennies in front of the bulldozer: The profitability of gilt based trading strategies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 214-222.
    37. Stefanos Kechagias & Vladas Pipiras, 2020. "Modeling bivariate long‐range dependence with general phase," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 268-292, March.
    38. Lasak, Katarzyna, 2010. "Likelihood based testing for no fractional cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 67-77, September.
    39. Federico Carlini & Katarzyna (K.A.) Lasak, 2018. "Likelihood based inference for an Identifiable Fractional Vector Error Correction Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-085/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    40. Moawia Alghalith & Ricardo Lalloob, 2012. "A General Empirical Model of Hedging," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    41. Munehisa Kasuya & Kozo Ueda, 2000. "Testing the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Re-examination by Additional Variables, Tests with Known Cointegrating Vectors, Monte Carlo Critical Values, and Fractional Cointegration," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    42. Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2009. "A No Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Analysis Of The Range Based Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2009-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    43. Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, "undated". "Local Whittle Analysis of Stationary Fractional Cointegration," Economics Working Papers 2002-8, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    44. Emrah Oral & Gazanfer Unal, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting time series of precious metals: a new approach to multifractal data," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, December.
    45. Davidson, James, 2002. "A model of fractional cointegration, and tests for cointegration using the bootstrap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 187-212, October.
    46. Davidson, James & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Long memory and nonlinear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 105-112, October.
    47. Kremer, Manfred, 1999. "Die Kapitalmarktzinsen in Deutschland und den USA: Wie eng ist der Zinsverbund? Eine Anwendung der multivariaten Kointegrationsanalyse," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    48. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    49. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Fractional cointegration in the consumption and income relationship using semiparametric techniques," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(47), pages 1-8.
    50. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2020. "The EHTS and the persistence in the spread reconsidered. A fractional cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-137.

  36. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1998. "A guide to nominal feedback rules and their use for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-63.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1995. "Identifying Austria's implicit monetary target: an alternative test of the \"hard currency\" policy," Working Papers 1995-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Francisco Dakila, Jr., 2001. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 1-36, December.
    3. Michael Dueker & Andreas Fischer, 2001. "The Mechanics of a successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons from Emerging Markets," Working Papers 01.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    4. Danfeng Kong, "undated". "Monetary policy rule for China - 1994-2006," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1405, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    5. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Marwan Elkhoury, 2005. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model of A Monetary Policy Rule for Switzerland. The Case of the Lucas and Friedman Hypothesis," IHEID Working Papers 01-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Jung, Alexander, 2018. "Does McCallum’s rule outperform Taylor’s rule during the financial crisis?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 9-21.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Switzerland: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 1999/030, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Sep), pages 431-450.
    10. Biederman, Daniel K., 2002. "Stabilizing properties of monetary feedback rules: A representative-agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1955-1974, September.
    11. Zangeneh, Hamid, 2006. "Economic Stability and the Central Bank: Rule or Discretion," MPRA Paper 26860, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.

  37. Michael J. Dueker, 1998. "Risk premiums among corporate bonds," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov.

    Cited by:

    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Gottschalk, Jan & Kamps, Christophe & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus & Strauß, Hubert, 1999. "Geringe Dynamik der Weltwirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2260, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

  38. Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  39. Michael J. Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.

    Cited by:

    1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An econometric analysis of some models for constructed binary time series," CAMA Working Papers 2009-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
    4. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society.
    5. McMillan, David G., 2021. "When and why do stock and bond markets predict US economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 331-343.
    6. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
    7. Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
    9. Ulrich Fritsche, 2001. "Do Probit Models Help in Forecasting Turning Points in German Business Cycles?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 241, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    11. Marius M. Mihai, 2020. "Do credit booms predict US recessions?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 887-910, September.
    12. JG. Gonzalez & RW. Spencer & DT. Walz, 2000. "The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 284-294, July.
    13. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
    14. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    15. Charlotte Christiansen, 2011. "Predicting Severe Simultaneous Recessions Using Yield Spreads as Leading Indicators," CREATES Research Papers 2011-20, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
    17. Hardouvelis, Gikas & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
    21. Ralf Fendel & Nicola Mai & Oliver Mohr, 2021. "Recession probabilities for the Eurozone at the zero lower bound: Challenges to the term spread and rise of alternatives," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1000-1026, September.
    22. Adriana Fernandez & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    23. Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2003. "How Much Leverage is too Much, or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession?," IMF Working Papers 2003/003, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2002. "Do Leading Indicators Help to Predict Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 314, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    25. Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Galakis, John & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2021. "Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 647-671.
    26. Nataša Erjavec & Petar Soriæ & Mirjana Èižmešija, 2016. "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia: Is economic sentiment the missing link?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 555-579.
    27. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    28. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    29. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    30. Hui Guo & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2005. "Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 669-684.
    31. Nneji, Ogonna & Brooks, Chris & Ward, Charles W.R., 2013. "House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 172-178.
    32. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Papers (Old Series) 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    33. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    34. Vladimir Dubrovskiy & Inna Golodniuk & Janusz Szyrmer, 2009. "Composite Leading Indicators for Ukraine: An Early Warning Model," CASE Network Reports 0085, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    35. Li, Matthew C., 2016. "US term structure and international stock market volatility: The role of the expectations factor and the maturity premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-15.
    36. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    37. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Lazrak, Skander & Welch, Robert, 2017. "Determinants of bankruptcy regime choice for Canadian public firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 161-172.
    38. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
    39. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
    40. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    41. Smets, Frank & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 1997. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    43. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    44. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    45. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 79-83, January.
    46. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2011. "The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 124-132, May.
    48. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    49. Dovern, Jonas & Ziegler, Christina, 2008. "Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    50. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    51. Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 39-49.
    52. Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2012. "Model Adequacy Checks for Discrete Choice Dynamic Models," Working Papers w0170, New Economic School (NES).
    53. Catherine Bonser-Neal & Timothy R. Morley, 1997. "Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q III), pages 37-53.
    54. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2000. "Stock Market Dispersion, Sectoral Shocks, and the German Business Cycle," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 136(IV), pages 531-555, December.
    55. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    56. Ratcliff, Ryan, 2013. "The “probability of recession”: Evaluating probabilistic and non-probabilistic forecasts from probit models of U.S. recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 311-315.
    57. Fritsche Ulrich & Kuzin Vladimir, 2005. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany / Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(1), pages 22-43, February.
    58. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
    59. Paya, Ivan & Matthews, Kent & Peel, David, 2005. "The term spread and real economic activity in the US inter-war period," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 331-343, June.
    60. Ahrens, R., 2002. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: a multicountry regime-switching analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 519-537, August.
    61. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
    62. Ulrich FRITSCHE & Vladimir KOUZINE, 2010. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany," EcoMod2004 330600054, EcoMod.
    63. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    64. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
    65. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting wind drought," Working Paper Series 18219, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    66. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    67. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

  40. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1997. "The FOMC in 1996: \\"watchful waiting\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 7-23.

    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2011. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 17317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  41. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1996. "Are federal funds rate changes consistent with price stability? Results from an indicator model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(Jan), pages 45-51.

    Cited by:

    1. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2009. "Perhaps the 1970s FOMC did what it said it did," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 842-855, September.
    2. Robert Amano & Paul Fenton & David Tessier & Simon van Norden, 1996. "The credibility of monetary policy: a survey of the literature with some simple applications to Caanda," Meeting papers 9610001, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  42. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M., 1996. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: Empirical results for Switzerland," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-103, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  43. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Narrow vs. broad measures of money as intermediate targets: some forecast results," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 41-51.

    Cited by:

    1. Cabos Karen & Funke Michael & Siegfried Nikolaus A., 2001. "Some Thoughts on Monetary Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 219-238, August.
    2. Peter Ferderer, J., 1998. "The determinants of monetary target credibility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 825-841.

  44. Michael J. Dueker, 1993. "Can nominal GDP targeting rules stabilize the economy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 15-29.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Dueker, 1993. "Indicators of monetary policy: the view from implicit feedback rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-40.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    3. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
    4. Chapra, Muhammad Umer, 1996. "Monetary Management In An Islamic Economy," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 4, pages 2-35.

  45. Michael J. Dueker, 1993. "Hypothesis testing with near-unit roots: the case of long-run purchasing-power parity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 37-48.

    Cited by:

    1. Serge Rey, 2009. "L’apport du Natrex à la modélisation des taux de change d’équilibre : théorie et application au dollar canadien," Post-Print hal-01885310, HAL.
    2. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignments of target zone exchange systems: what do we know?," Working Papers 1994-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1999. "Purchasing Power Parity in High-Inflation Eastern European Countries: Evidence from Fractional and Harris-Inder Cointegration Tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 293-308, April.
    4. Serge Rey, 2009. "Des insuffisances de la PPA à l’apport du NATREX : une revue critique des théories du taux de change réel d’équilibre," Working papers of CATT hal-01880363, HAL.

  46. Michael J. Dueker, 1993. "Indicators of monetary policy: the view from implicit feedback rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-40.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Dueker & Apostolos Serletis, 1996. "The sensitivity of empirical studies to alternative measures of the monetary base and reserves," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 51-69.
    2. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
    3. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1996. "Are federal funds rate changes consistent with price stability? Results from an indicator model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(Jan), pages 45-51.

  47. Michael J. Dueker, 1992. "The response of market interest rates to discount rate changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 78-91.

    Cited by:

    1. Kaen, Fred R. & Sherman, Heidemarie C. & Tehranian, Hassan, 1997. "The effects of Bundesbank discount and Lombard rate changes on German bank stocks," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "Lifting the veil of secrecy from monetary policy: evidence from the Fed's early discount rate policy," Working Papers 1998-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Gasbarro, Dominic & Monroe, Gary S., 2004. "The impact of monetary policy candidness on Australian financial markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-46, February.
    4. Jushan, Bai, 1995. "Estimation of multiple-regime regressions with least absolutes deviation," MPRA Paper 32916, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 1998.
    5. Bayar Omer, 2015. "An ordered probit analysis of monetary policy inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 705-726, July.
    6. Don Bredin & Gerard O’Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-331, October.
    7. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..
    8. Antulio N. Bomfim & Vincent Reinhart, 2000. "Making news: financial market effects of Federal Reserve disclosure practices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Syed M. Harun & M. Kabir Hassan & Tarek S. Zaher, 2005. "Effect of Monetary Policy on Commercial Banks Across Different Business Conditions," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 9(1-2), pages 99-128, March-Jun.
    10. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "The information content of discount rate announcements: what's behind the announcement effect?," Working Papers 1994-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Rai, Anoop & Seth, Rama & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2007. "The impact of discount rate changes on market interest rates: Evidence from three European countries and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 905-923, October.
    12. Kaketsis, Asimakis & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "The effects of monetary policy changes on market interest rates in Greece: An event study approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 487-504.
    13. Bunzel, Helle & Iglesias, Emma M., 2006. "Testing for Breaks Using Alternating Observations," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12694, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Manfred J.M. Neumann & Jens Weidmann, 1997. "The Information Content of German Discount Rate Changes," Macroeconomics 9706006, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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