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Publications

by members of

Rady School of Management
University of California-San Diego (UCSD)
La Jolla, California (United States)

These are publications listed in RePEc written by members of the above institution who are registered with the RePEc Author Service. Thus this compiles the works all those currently affiliated with this institutions, not those affilated at the time of publication. List of registered members. Register yourself. This page is updated in the first days of each month.
| Working papers | Journal articles |

Working papers

    2006

  1. Marco Aiolfi & Allan Timmermann & Luis Catão, 2006. "Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 06/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multi-category Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0648, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pesaran, Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0602, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Testing Dependence among Serially Correlated Multi-category Variables," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," IEPR Working Papers 06.42, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
  10. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 3, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Testing Dependence among Serially Correlated Multi-Category Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 2196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  12. Sylvain Champonnois, 2006. "Comparing financial systems - a structural analysis," Working Paper Series 702, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Sylvain Champonnois, 2006. "Comparing Financial Systems: A structural Analysis," 2006 Meeting Papers 520, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]

    2005

  1. Sandeep Kapur & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0503, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Profoessor Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2005. "The Forecasing time series subject to multiple structure breaks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 33, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Testable Implications of Forecast Optimality," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/485, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]

    2004

  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Real Time Econometrics’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0432, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  8. Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 234, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  9. Catão, Luis A. V. & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Massimo Guidolin, University of Virginia & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions under Multivariate Regime Switching," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 349, Econometric Society.
  11. Sandeep Kapur & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium," Finance 0408001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sandeep Kapur & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium," Finance 0408005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching," CEPR Discussion Papers 4649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Term Structure of Risk Under Alternative Econometric Specifications," CEPR Discussion Papers 4645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," CEPR Discussion Papers 4402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts From Autoregressive Models Under Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2003

  1. Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0306, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  2. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Guidolin, Massimo & Allan Timmermann, 2003. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock Returns," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 95, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  7. Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0331, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kapur, Sandeep & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4038, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2002

  1. Blake, David & Timmermann, Allan G, 2002. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Granger, Clive & Timmermann, Allan G, 2002. "Efficient Market Hypothesis and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bruce N. Lehmann & Allan Timmermann, 2002. "(UBS Pensions Series 3) Performance Clustering and Incentives in the UK Pension Fund Industry," FMG Discussion Papers dp425, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002. "Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability," FMG Discussion Papers dp412, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Allan Timmermann, 2002. "(UBS Pensions Series 4) Returns from Active Management in International Equity Markets; Evidence from a Panel of UK Pension Funds," FMG Discussion Papers dp426, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Allan Timmermann, 2002. "(UBS Pensions Series 2) International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities," FMG Discussion Papers dp424, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2001

  1. Allan Timmerman & Massimo Guidolin, 2001. "Option prices and implied volatility dynamics under Bayesian learning," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 P3, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  2. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2001. "Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 2001. "Forecast Evaluation with Shared Data Sets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Perez-Quiros, G. & Timmermann, A., 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities," Papers 58, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  5. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan G. Timmermann, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Working Paper Series 058, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2001. "Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities," FMG Discussion Papers dp397, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2000

  1. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Implied Learning Paths from Option Prices," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0447, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  2. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1216, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities," FMG Discussion Papers dp360, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1999

  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Model Instability and Choice of Observation Window," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  2. Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1999. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp335, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1999. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp322, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1998

  1. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann & David Blake, 1998. "The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1998. "Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-16, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," CEPR Discussion Papers 1976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "The Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp304, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Allan Timmermann & Asger Lunde, 1998. "The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis," FMG Discussion Papers dp302, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Allan Timmermann, 1998. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices," FMG Discussion Papers dp311, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1997

  1. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1997. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-31, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  2. Blake, David & Lehmann, Bruce N & Timmermann, Allan G, 1997. "Performance Measurement using Multiple Asset Class Portfolio Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 1618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1996

  1. Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 1996. "On Business Cycle Variation in the Mean, Volatility and Conditional Distribution of Stock Returns," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-13, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  3. Allan Timmermann, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-14, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    1995

  1. Pesaran, H. & Timmermann, A., 1995. "The Use of Recursive Model Selection Strategies in Forecasting Stock Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9406, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Variation in Expected Stock Returns: Evidence on the Pricing of Equities from a Cross-Section of UK Companies," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  3. Steve Satchell & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "An Assessment of the Economic Value of Nonlinear Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-16, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  5. Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Volatility Clustering and Mean Reversion of Stock Returns in an Asset Pricing Model with Incomplete Learning," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-23, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    1994

  1. Steve Satchell & Allan Timmermann, 1994. "On the Optimality of Adaptive Expectations: Muth Revisited," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 94-26, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    1992

  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1992. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9216, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A.G., 1992. "A Generalisation of the Non-Parametric Henriksson-Merton Test of Market Timing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9218, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    1990

  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, G., 1990. "The Statistical And Economic Significance Of The Predictability Of Exess Returns On Common Stocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9022, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A.G., 1990. "The Statistical And Economic Significance Of The Predictability Of Excess Returns On Common Stocks," Papers 26, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.

Journal articles

    2008

  1. Simonsohn, Uri & Karlsson, Niklas & Loewenstein, George & Ariely, Dan, 2008. "The tree of experience in the forest of information: Overweighing experienced relative to observed information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 263-286, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2007

  1. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 134-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2006

  1. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006. "Can Mutual Fund "Stars" Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 285-308. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Uri Simonsohn & George Loewenstein, 2006. "Mistake #37: The Effect of Previously Encountered Prices on Current Housing Demand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 175-199, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Uri Simonsohn, 2006. "New Yorkers Commute More Everywhere: Contrast Effects in the Field," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-9, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2005

  1. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Allan Timmermann & David Blake, 2005. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Investment Opportunities," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 71-98, January. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sandeep Kapur & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Relative Performance Evaluation Contracts and Asset Market Equilibrium," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 1077-1102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Completion time structures of stock price movements," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-326, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching ," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1081-1102, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2004

  1. Timmermann, Allan & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-27. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2003

  1. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with shared data sets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-227. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2003. "Recursive Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamics in UK Stock Returns," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(4), pages 381-395, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2002

  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2001

  1. Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information, and Stock Prices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 299-314, July.
  2. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    2000

  1. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1999

  1. Clive Granger & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Data mining with local model specification uncertainty: a discussion of Hoover and Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 220-225.
  2. Blake, David & Lehmann, Bruce N & Timmermann, Allan, 1999. "Asset Allocation Dynamics and Pension Fund Performance," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 429-61, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan & Blake, David, 1999. "The hazards of mutual fund underperformance: A Cox regression analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-152, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1996

  1. Timmermann, Allan, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(4), pages 523-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Miles, David & Timmermann, Allan, 1996. "Variation in Expected Stock Returns: Evidence on the Pricing of Equities from a Cross-Section of UK Companies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 369-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1995

  1. Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Cointegration Tests of Present Value Models with a Time-Varying Discount Factor," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 17-31, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Satchell, Steve & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "On the optimality of adaptive expectations: Muth revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 407-416, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1994

  1. Timmermann, Allan, 1994. "Can Agents Learn to Form Rational Expectations? Some Results on Convergence and Stability of Learning in the UK Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 777-97, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Timmermann, Allan, 1994. "Present value models with feedback : Solutions, stability, bubbles, and some empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1093-1119, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Satchell, Steve & Timmermann, Allan, 1994. "Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts in the presence of different information sources," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 169-174, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Timmermann, Allan, 1994. "Why do dividend yields forecast stock returns?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 149-158, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G., 1994. "A generalization of the non-parametric Henriksson-Merton test of market timing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    1993

  1. Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Timmermann, Allan Gilling, 1993. " Learning, Specification Search and Market Efficiency. With an Application to the Danish Stock Market," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 95(2), pages 157-73.

    1992

  1. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
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