Publications

by members of

Banco de México
México, Mexico

Working papers

2009

1. Jose Gonzalo Rangel & Robert F. Engle, 2009. "The Factor-Spline-GARCH Model for High and Low Frequency Correlations," Working Papers 2009-03, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
2. Guillermo Benavides & Carlos Capistrán, 2009. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility: The Superior Performance of Conditional Combinations of Time Series and Option Implied Forecasts," Working Papers 2009-01, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
3. Carlos Capistrán & Christian Constandse & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "Using Seasonal Models to Forecast Short-Run Inflation in Mexico," Working Papers 2009-05, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
4. Guillermo Benavides & Carlos Capistrán, 2009. "A Note on the Volatilities of the Interest Rate and the Exchange Rate Under Different Monetary Policy Instruments: Mexico 1998-2008," Working Papers 2009-10, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
5. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan M. Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets," Working Paper 09-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
6. Eduardo Morales Ramos, 2009. "The evolution of fuzzy multidimensional poverty in Mexico, 1994-2006," Working Papers 2009-04, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
7. Antonio E. Noriega & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]

2008

1. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers 2008-55, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
2. Carlos Capistrán & Gabriel López-Moctezuma, 2008. "Experts´ Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
3. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
4. Covarrubias, Enrique, 2008. "Necessary and sufficient conditions for global uniqueness of equilibria," MPRA Paper 8833, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
5. Covarrubias, Enrique, 2008. "Determinacy of equilibria of smooth infinite economies," MPRA Paper 9437, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
6. Covarrubias, Enrique, 2008. "The number of equilibria of smooth infinite economies with separable utilities," MPRA Paper 11099, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
7. Gabriel Cuadra, 2008. "Stylized Facts of the Mexican Business Cycles," Working Papers 2008-14, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
8. Maria Gonzalez & Davide Lombardo & Arnoldo López-Marmolejo & Alfredo Cuevas, 2008. "Pension Privatization and Country Risk," IMF Working Papers 08/195, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
9. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
10. Antonio E. Noriega & Luis M. Soria & Ramón Velázquez, 2008. "International Evidence on Stochastic and Deterministic Monetary Neutrality," Working Papers 2008-04, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
11. Nicolás Amoroso & Daniel Chiquiar & Núria Quella & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2008. "Determinants of the Comparative Advantage and of the Performance of Mexico’s Manufacturing Exports During 1996-2005," Working Papers 2008-01, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
12. Carlo Alcaraz & Daniel Chiquiar & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2008. "Intersectoral Wage Differentials and the Change of the Composition of Urban Employment in Mexico during 2001-2004," Working Papers 2008-06, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
13. Daniel Chiquiar & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2008. "A Note on Mexico and U.S. Manufacturing Industries’ Long-term Relationship," Working Papers 2008-08, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]

2007

1. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 2007-11, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
2. Carlos Capistrán, 2007. "Optimality Tests for Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2007-14, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
3. Enrique Covarrubias, 2007. "Regular Infinite Economies," Levine's Working Paper Archive 843644000000000034, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
4. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2007-03, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
5. Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio E. Noriega, 2007. "Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2007-01, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
6. Daniel Chiquiar & Edna Fragoso & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Performance of Mexican Manufacturing Exports during 1996-2005," Working Papers 2007-12, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]

2006

1. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecast Combination with Entry and Exit of Experts," Working Papers 2006-08, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
2. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2006-07, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
3. Carlos Capistrán, 2006. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Working Papers 2006-14, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
4. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Latin America," Working Papers 2006-11, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
5. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 3, Society for Computational Economics.
6. Horacio Sapriza & Gabriel Cuadra, 2006. "Fiscal Policy, Inflation Tax and Default Risk in Emerging Economies," 2006 Meeting Papers 727, Society for Economic Dynamics.
7. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Interest Rates and Political Uncertainty in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-02, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
8. Antonio E. Noriega & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulà ria & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato, 2006. "Spurious regression and econometric trends," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 151, Society for Computational Economics.
9. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression and Econometric Trends," Working Papers 2006-05, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
10. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Cointegration: The Engle-Granger Test in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2006-12, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
11. Carlo Alcaraz & Rodrigo García Verdú, 2006. "Changes in the Composition of Employment and Productivity in the Formal Sector of the Mexican Economy," Working Papers 2006-03, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]

2005

1. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2005. "The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Working Papers 2005/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
2. Carlos Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2005-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
3. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
4. Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia & Antonio E. Noriega, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 186, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
5. Antonio Noriega & Matias Fontenla, 2005. "Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Mexico," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_058, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]

2004

1. R. Velazquez & A.E. Noriega & L.M. Soria, 2004. "International Evidence on Monetary Neutrality Under Broken Trend Stationary Models," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 57, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
2. R. Velazquez & Noriega & A., 2004. "International evidence on monetary neutrality under broken trend stationary models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 282, Society for Computational Economics.
3. Daniel Chiquiar, 2004. "Globalization, Regional Wage Differentials and the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem: Evidence from México," Working Papers 2004-06, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]
4. Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar, 2004. "Bilateral Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico and United States Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 2004-05, Banco de México. [Downloadable!]

2002

1. Noriega, A., & L.M. Soria, 2002. "Structural Breaks, Orders of Integration, and the Neutrality Hypothesis: Further Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 353, Society for Computational Economics.
2. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2002. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 9242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2000

1. Antonio E. Noriega, 2000. "Unit Roots And Multiple Structural Breaks In Real Ouput: How Long Does An Economy Remain Stationary?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 155, Society for Computational Economics.

Undated

1. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, . "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," School of Economics Working Papers EM200701, Universidad de Guanajuato. [Downloadable!]
2. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, . "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," School of Economics Working Papers EM200501, Universidad de Guanajuato. [Downloadable!]
3. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, . "Spurious regression under deterministic and stochastic trends," School of Economics Working Papers EM200503, Universidad de Guanajuato. [Downloadable!]

Journal articles

2009

1. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Carlo Alcaraz, 2009. "Informal and Formal Labour Flexibility in Mexico," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE. [Downloadable!]

2008

1. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2008. "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1187-1222, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Capistrán, Carlos, 2008. "Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
4. Morales-Ramos, Marco Antonio & Morales-Ramos, Eduardo, 2008. "La teoría de conjuntos difusos como una opción para medir la pobreza. El caso de México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(299), pages 641-662, julio-sep.
5. Noriega, Antonio E. & Soria, Luis M. & Velázquez, Ramón, 2008. "International evidence on stochastic and deterministic monetary neutrality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1261-1275, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
6. Chiquiar, Daniel, 2008. "Globalization, regional wage differentials and the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 70-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2007

1. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2007. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(3), pages 439-444, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Noriega, Antonio & Fontenla, Matías, 2007. "La infraestructura y el crecimiento económico en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(296), pages 885-900, octubre-d.

2006

1. Capistran, Carlos, 2006. "On comparing multi-horizon forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 176-181, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression Under Broken-Trend Stationarity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(5), pages 671-684, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2005

1. Chiquiar, Daniel & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2005. "Trade and business-cycle synchronization: evidence from Mexican and U.S. manufacturing industries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 187-216, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 239-281, April.
3. Chiquiar, Daniel, 2005. "Why Mexico's regional income convergence broke down," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 257-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2004

1. Eduardo Morales Ramos, 2004. "Country survey XIX: Mexico," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 83-99, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Noriega, Antonio E., 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and the unit-root hypothesis: further international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-197, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Antonio E. Noriega, 2004. "Sector-Level Disaggregate Stochastic Trends in Mexico’s Real Output," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 29-42, January-J. [Downloadable!]

2003

1. Antonio E. Noriega & Lorena Medina, 2003. "Quasi purchasing power parity: Structural change in the Mexican peso/us dollar real exchange rate," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 18(2), pages 227-236. [Downloadable!]

2002

1. Eduardo Morales-Ramos, 2002. "Defence R&D Expenditure: The Crowding-Out Hypothesis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 365-383, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2001

1. Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001. "Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1999

1. Antonio E. Noriega & Araceli Ramírez-Zamora, 1999. "Unit roots and multiple structural breaks in real output," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(2), pages 163-188.

1995

1. Noriega-Muro, Antonio, 1995. "Asymptotic theory of statistics form unit root test regressions when the alternative is a breaking-trend-stationary model," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 10(1), pages 29-65.

Undated

1. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, . "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Software components

2009

1. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Code and data files for "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets"," Computer Codes 07-61, Review of Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]

This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.