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The Poverty and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change Quantifying the Effects, Identifying the Adaptation Strategies

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  • Emmanuel Skoufias

Abstract

The continued decline in global poverty over the past 100 years particularly in the past three decades is a remarkable achievement. In 1981, 52 percent of the world population lived on less than $1.25 a day. By 2005, that rate had been cut in half, to 25.0 percent, and by 2008 to 22.2 percent (World Bank 2012). Preliminary estimates for 2010 indicate that the extreme poverty rate has fallen further still; if follow-up studies confirm this, the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving world poverty will have been reached five years early (World Bank 2010). In recent years, poverty reduction has continued in most countries, even after the financial, food, and fuel shocks of 2008-09. Although poverty remains widespread in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, progress has been substantial: extreme poverty fell in South Asia from 54 percent in 1990 to 36 percent in 2008 (World Bank 2012). In Sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth exceeded the rate of poverty reduction, the number of extremely poor people increased from 290 million in 1990 to 356 million in 2008, yet over 2005-08, the region's poverty rate nonetheless 'fell 4.8 percentage points to less than 50 percent the largest drop in Sub-Saharan Africa since international poverty rates have been computed,' according to the latest edition of the World Development Indicators (WDI) (World Bank 2012). Although progress has been slower at the $2-a-day poverty line, the WDI noted that an increase in the absolute number of people living on $1.25-$2.00 a day reflects both the upward movement from extreme poverty and 'the vulnerabilities still faced by a great many people in the world.' climate change is likely to reduce agricultural productivity, especially in the tropical regions, and to directly affect poor people's livelihood assets including health, access to water and other natural resources, homes, and infrastructure (World Bank 2010). Moreover, increasing climatic variability manifesting as more frequent and erratic weather extremes, or 'weather shocks' will likely make poor households even more vulnerable, which could in turn exacerbate the incidence, severity, and persistence of poverty in developing countries. This volume not only surveys the research terrain concerning the effects of climate change on poverty but also looks closely at vulnerable rural populations (in a developing country, Indonesia, and in the newly industrialized Mexico) where weather shocks have measurable short term if not immediate effects on the farming livelihoods many depend on for both income and subsistence. The low-income farmers of rice in Indonesia and of corn and other staple crops in Mexico are at the human forefront of climate change.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by The World Bank in its series World Bank Publications with number 9384 and published in 2012.

ISBN: 978-0-8213-9611-7
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:9384

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Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
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Web page: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org
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Related research

Keywords: Science and Technology Development - Science of Climate Change Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development;

References

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  1. John Hoddinott, 2006. "Shocks and their consequences across and within households in Rural Zimbabwe," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 301-321.
  2. Harold Alderman & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2004. "Long Term Consequences Of Early Childhood Malnutrition," HiCN Working Papers 09, Households in Conflict Network.
  3. Baez Javier Eduardo, 2006. "Income Volatility, Risk-Coping Behavior and Consumption Smoothing Mechanisms in Developing Countries: A Survey," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  4. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, September.
  5. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1727, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Wehby, George L. & Castilla, Eduardo E. & Lopez-Camelo, Jorge, 2010. "The impact of altitude on infant health in South America," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 197-211, July.
  7. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Vinha, Katja, 2012. "Climate variability and child height in rural Mexico," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 54-73.
  8. Doyle, Orla & Harmon, Colm P. & Heckman, James J. & Tremblay, Richard E., 2009. "Investing in early human development: Timing and economic efficiency," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6, March.
  9. Elaina Rose, 1999. "Consumption Smoothing and Excess Female Mortality in Rural India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 41-49, February.
  10. Woitek, Ulrich, 2003. "Height cycles in the 18th and 19th centuries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 243-257, June.
  11. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
  12. Luis Rubalcava & Graciela Teruel, 2004. "The Role of Maternal Cognitive Ability in Child Health," Research Department Publications 3192, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  13. Jere R. Behrman & John Hoddinott, 2005. "Programme Evaluation with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Selective Implementation: The Mexican "PROGRESA" Impact on Child Nutrition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 547-569, 08.
  14. John A. Maluccio & John Hoddinott & Jere R. Behrman & Reynaldo Martorell & Agnes R. Quisumbing & Aryeh D. Stein, 2009. "The Impact of Improving Nutrition During Early Childhood on Education among Guatemalan Adults," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 734-763, 04.
  15. Case, Anne & Fertig, Angela & Paxson, Christina, 2005. "The lasting impact of childhood health and circumstance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 365-389, March.
  16. Udry, Christopher, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in a Rural Credit Market: An Empirical Investigation in Northern Nigeria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 495-526, July.
  17. Glewwe, Paul & Miguel, Edward A., 2008. "The Impact of Child Health and Nutrition on Education in Less Developed Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
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