Reducing the Vulnerability of Armenia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaption Options

Within any economy, agriculture is the sector that is most sensitive to climate change. In Armenia, however, the risks are even more pronounced because the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. This publication outlines the policy options available to Armenia, based on a rigorous evaluation of the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems. It provides a solid foundation for taking strategic and, in many cases, immediate action to implement climate-smart agriculture in the country. Specifically, this report provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Armenia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: (1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; (2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and (3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. This report provides a summary of the methods, data, results, and recommendations for each of these activities, which were reviewed by local counterparts at the October 11, 2012, National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference. This study is part of the World Bank s Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Regional Analytical and Advisory Activities (AAA) Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in ECA Agricultural Systems. Armenia is one of three countries participating in the program, with the other country participants being Azerbaijan and Georgia. The study underlines the importance and urgency of capacity-building to empower Armenia to initiate control of its own climate resilience, while also providing specific guidance to finance opportunities in the rapidly emerging climate adaptation sector. The World Bank is partnering with the Government through ongoing projects in this important area, and looks forward to continuing its engagement and support going forward.