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Global Economic Prospects, Volume 5, June 2012 : Managing Growth in a Volatile World

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  • World Bank
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    Abstract

    The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis.

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    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/12096/GEP5.pdf?sequence=1
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    Bibliographic Info

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    This book is provided by The World Bank in its series World Bank Publications with number 12096 and published in 2012-06.

    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:12096

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    Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
    Phone: (202) 477-1234
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    Web page: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org
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    Related research

    Keywords: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Theory & Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Banks & Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets;

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Ejaz Ghani, 2011. "Reshaping Tomorrow : Is South Asia Ready for the Big Leap?," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 16360, October.
    2. Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar & Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "India's Patterns of Development: What Happened, What Follows," NBER Working Papers 12023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis & Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar, 2006. "India's Pattern of Development," IMF Working Papers 06/22, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Independent Evaluation Group, 2013. "Results and Performance of the World Bank Group 2012 : Volume II. Appendixes," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13121, October.

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