The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy
AbstractOver the past five years China has emerged as the world's largest global surplus economy; indeed by 2007-08 the size of its surplus relative to its GDP was of a magnitude unprecedented for a large trading economy. This development is especially surprising since in the first twenty-five years of economic reform China's trade and current account surpluses were quite small by East Asian standards, averaging less than 2 percent of GDP. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the key economic challenges facing the Chinese authorities in light of the still undervalued exchange rate, the large build-up of foreign exchange reserves, and more recently the sharp decline in economic growth. It analyzes the implications of China's exchange-rate policy for the effectiveness of monetary policy, the transition to a commercially oriented banking system, the evolving structure of output and demand, and the risk of protectionism abroad. The policy-options portion of the study takes account of the significant real effective appreciation of the renminbi over the past fifteen months and will contrast the pros and cons of a "stay-the-course" policy with that of a bolder, "three-stage" approach that would seek to maintain recent progress and to reduce even further the undervaluation of the renminbi.
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Bibliographic InfoThis book is provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Press: All Books with number pa87 and published in 2009.
Note: Policy Analyses in International Economics 87
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- Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2009. "The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa87, November.
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- Dennis Tao Yang, 2012.
"Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 125-46, Fall.
- Yang, Dennis T., 2012. "Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China," IZA Discussion Papers 6964, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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